Canada plans to advocate for more cash and accountability at the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, but its record-high oil production and the threat of a general election might complicate its own climate ambitions.
The resource-rich country will be pushing for greater financial commitments from Cop countries in November as they look to replace the current, but broadly recognised as inadequate, $100bn/yr target with a new finance goal for developing countries. Canada, like all developed countries, would not say how much it is willing to commit itself. But it favours broadening the goal's contributor base.
"Public finance from a relatively small group of developed countries will not be sufficient to meet current needs," federal agency Environment and Climate Change Canada (EEEC) told Argus. The new goal will require "honest reflection". The country in negotiations mentioned the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and fossil fuel sector public financing as a mean to increase investments in energy transition sectors, but other key oil-producing countries disagree.
Canada's government says it remains focused on the oil and gas industry and expects to see progress on Cop 28's commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. It became the first G20 country to release a framework targeting "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies last year, accelerating a 2009 commitment to phase out support for its largest source of emissions. This has not stopped investment in Alberta's oil sands from growing, but the federal government is looking to steer more cash towards clean initiatives such as clean hydrogen, clean electricity and carbon capture. The latter could represent a big business for Alberta's producers if subsidised generously. But it could also be a licence to push Canada's crude production beyond its 4.9mn b/d record set last year.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canada's oil and gas sector accounted for 33pc, or 217mn t, of the country's total in 2022, according to the National Inventory Report. Cutting them is critical to meet an overall goal of 403mn-439mn t by 2030, but the Office of the Auditor General of Canada says the country is only on track to lower them to 470mn t by that date.
Domestic politics
And Canada's climate ambitions might be at risk, with the Liberal minority government facing a general election no later than October 2025. Prime minister Justin Trudeau's popularity has dropped to the benefit of Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. Trudeau has resisted calls from within his party to step down, while Conservatives prepare for what they call a "carbon tax election".
They want to axe the federal carbon tax, tanker bans and regulatory burdens. They promote pipelines and energy independence using a mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels, as part of a "gradual transition" to a low-carbon future, and say "the provinces should be free to develop their own climate change policies".
Canada's 10 provinces hold jurisdiction over natural resources and that has posed a serious dilemma for the Liberals as they make climate promises on the international stage. Leading oil province Alberta will be sending a delegation to Cop to promote its own emissions-reduction strategies, and counter those of federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault, as the provincial government slams Ottawa's "punitive regulations" and says its climate policies are unrealistic.
Trudeau's pursuit of winding down the oil sands was already tricky considering a state-owned pipeline is effectively subsidising the industry by C$8.7bn ($6.45bn), according to non-profit International Institute for Sustainable Development. Export capacity to the Pacific coast tripled to 890,000 b/d when the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion opened this year, underpinning growth plans for Canadian oil.
