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Israel-Iran conflict threatens Mena steel supply

  • Spanish Market: Metals
  • 03/10/24

The escalating Israel-Iran conflict could lead to a shortage of steel and steelmaking raw materials in the Mena region because of potential logistical disruptions and a surge in freight prices.

Tensions have risen after the killing of the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah militia Hassan Nasrallah, by Israel on 27 September, which sparked retaliation from Iran. This has seen an increase in attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, disrupting trade routes. The conflict could adversely affect construction and steel demand in the Mena region, which remains a key export outlet for long steel products, as well as billets.

"The attacks are highly likely to increase and imports from Asia to Turkey will be negatively impacted due to high freight and therefore, high steel prices," said a Turkish integrated producer whose steel cargo was targeted by Houthi missiles a few months ago. An international iron ore trader echoed this, expecting freight prices to increase.

Over the past few years, Israel and Yemen were important rebar export destinations for Turkey. But in April, Turkey imposed a trade ban on Israel. Turkish rebar exports to Yemen have sharply dropped owing to risks to shipments.

Currently steel trading activity with Lebanon is on hold. Lebanon typically purchases high volumes of long steel, particularly rebar, from Egypt, Algeria and Libya.

Market participants in the UAE, a major producer and consumer in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), had previously anticipated a strong final quarter of the year, because of expected increases in construction activity from large-scale projects. But should the situation escalates, projects could be on hold and demand will shrink, a producer warned.

Trading in Oman faces greater risk compared with other GCC countries because of its shared border with Yemen.

The conflict could also negatively impact the flat steel industry in north Africa, as many re-rollers import hot-rolled coils (HRC) for re-rolling or coating, often finding it more feasible to use supply from Asia rather than local material. "HRC imports to Algeria will be endangered and this will increase prices of cold-rolled coils (CRC) and galvanised steel prices," a market participant commented.


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14/11/25

Sigma paused mine in 3Q, will sell Li tailings

Sigma paused mine in 3Q, will sell Li tailings

Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — Sigma Lithium confirmed it froze production at its flagship project in Brazil between late September and for the entirety of October in order to upgrade mining equipment, which curtailed output in the period. Sigma on 6 October said that it would be enhancing its mining efficiency by switching feedstock providers and upgrading equipment at its Grota do Cirilo mine, in Brazil. The plant began to phase down in September and was shutdown in October, which led to a "significant production decrease," the company's chief executive Ana Cabral said during an earnings call. Third quarter output fell to 44,000 metric tonnes (t) of spodumene, a 27pc decrease over the year and a 36pc sequential drop from the previous quarter. Sigma also failed to export any material in October because of the mining halt. The mine was restarted earlier this week and will ramp up back to normal production levels in the next 2-3 weeks, Cabral said. Sigma declined to share its fourth quarter production guidance, saying it would do so after production resumed. Given the upgrades, however, the company expects to produce 73,000t in the first quarter of 2026, which would be a 6.8pc increased compared to the same period this year. The miner also revised the delivery timeline for its first expansion, now scheduled for completion by the end of 2026, which will lift Grota do Cirilo's total capacity to 520,000t/yr from 245,000t/yr today. It sold 48,600t of spodumene for a total net revenue of $28.5mn in the third quarter. Li tailings will be sold to China Sigma will also begin to sell chemically unaffected dry lithium tailings to Chinese buyers in order to maximize profits and monetize "all lithium we have", Cabral said. The company plans on offloading 950,000t of dry, solid mining byproducts with 1-1.3pc lithium concentration to buyers in China. The company quoted the tailings — which it calls "lithium middlings" — at $120/t at current market prices, which would bring $33mn of additional revenue in the fourth quarter, according to Cabral. There are 100,000t of "middlings" stocked at the port of Vitoria and another 850,000t at the mine, with shipping to China priced at $40/t and $85/t, respectively. Sigma commits first Li batches The company said it secured two offtake agreements with different clients and is negotiating a third to be sealed by year's end. Sigma has, for the first time, committed 100,000t of spodumene to two different customers through long-term offtake agreements. The first agreement covers 80,000t and is structured as a three-month rolling contract at market prices. Under this arrangement, the customer prepays for upcoming production, with payments extending until 30 March 2026. Sigma plans to use the funds as working capital. In the second offtake, the customer has paid $25mn up front in exchange for 20,000t of production over the next three years. Sigma intends to use this funding to support its recent mining upgrade. The company is also negotiating a third offtake with a European-based trading company to partly fund its expansion plans. It expects to close a three-year contract for 40,000t, valued at $51mn upfront, by year-end —bringing total committed production to 140,000t. Additionally, Sigma is in talks for two more offtakes totaling 260,000t, scheduled to close in 2026: one for 80,000t over three years at $100mn, and another for 40,000 t over three years at $51mn. The proceeds from these agreements will be used to repay shareholder debt and fund growth initiatives, respectively. Overall, the miner is set to commit 400,000t of spodumene by the end of 2029. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU states to vote on TRQ, variable duty alloy safeguard


14/11/25
14/11/25

EU states to vote on TRQ, variable duty alloy safeguard

London, 14 November (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed safeguard measures that combine tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) and out-of-quota variable duties on ferro-manganese, ferro-silicon, ferro-silico-manganese and ferro-silico-magnesium, in order to support EU ferro-alloy production and market share. EU member states are set to vote on the measures on 17 November. The commission's proposed measures were circulated by the World Trade Organisation at the request of the EU on 12 November. The EU declined to comment on the document. The vote was postponed from today and is the culmination of a safeguard investigation initiated in December 2024. The measures seek to protect seven ferro-alloy producers that have lost significant market share to lower-priced third-country imports. The commission acknowledged that buyers benefit from low prices but argued that protective measures are in the economic and strategic interest of the EU because they ensure a viable domestic industry and steady ferro-alloy supply for EU end-markets. Safeguards to combine TRQ, out-of-quota variable duty The proposed measures set a tariff-rate quota for duty free entry into the EU for each product. Imports in excess of the quota are subject to an out-of-quota variable duty that is the difference between an established price threshold for each product ( see table ) and the actual import price. The quota quantities are equivalent to 75pc of the EU's average imports of each product in 2022-24. This aims to give a 30-40pc "sustainable" market share to European producers, while still maintaining "adequate" supply for downstream users. The annual quota is divided into four three-month segments, starting on 18 November. If excess imports are made at the level of the price threshold or above, no duty needs to be paid. If imports are made at a lower price, the duty paid would be equal to the difference between the net free-at-EU frontier (cif) price and the respective price threshold. The thresholds are set at a "non-injurious price for ferro-alloy imports" determined by the cost of domestic sales for each product type, with added compliance costs, investments and a target profit. But some market participants view the price thresholds as detached from reality. The threshold proposed by the commission is €2,408/t ($2,800/t) cif Europe, which is almost double the actual market price today. Argus assessed ferro-silicon prices at €1,180-1,235/t ddp Europe on 13 November. The excessive size of the threshold means end-users will substitute the alloy with silicon metal or other alternative products, which makes it unlikely the ferro-silicon quota will be met and therefore the threshold will not be a factor, a ferro-silicon producer told Argus . Norway, Iceland subject to measures The proposed measures would apply to imports from European Economic Area (EEA) member states Norway and Iceland, affecting major producers such as Elkem and Finnfjord. The ferro-alloy industry association that was the driving force behind the safeguard investigation, Euroalliages, called for the exclusion of Norway and Iceland from the measures, in a recent interview with Argus . The measures should not apply to either country for reasons of economic integration with the EU economy and business ties, secretary-general Bob Lambrechts said. But Norway and Iceland have inflicted sustained economic injury on EU ferro-alloy producers and the proposed measures satisfy the requirements of Articles 112 and 113, which set out conditions and procedures for safeguards, the commission said. Norway and Iceland supplied 47.4pc of total EU imports last year. Those imports were priced below EU producers' but were noticeably higher than imports from third countries such as India. Silicon excluded Silicon metal imports into the EU did not increase between 2019-24, according to the commission's analysis. Silicon metal was consequently excluded from further investigations and the resulting safeguards. The EU imported 334,861t of silicon in 2024, near flat against 2019 imports of 335,415t, Eurostat data show. Imports decreased to 326,372t in the most recent reported 12-month period, 1 July 2024-30 June 2025. The commission analysed imports relative to production and consumption of ferro-alloys, but it is not clear whether this analysis was done for silicon. Absolute import volumes have not increased, but EU silicon production and consumption have decreased sharply in recent years due to lower demand from aluminium alloy and silicone producers. And EU producers are not able to compete against lower-priced imports from third countries. All EU silicon metal production is currently off line due to untenable market conditions, with shutdowns executed in France, Spain, Germany and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Silicon metal may be affected indirectly if steel mills substitute silicon metal for ferro-silicon, although this is dependent on adjustment of production processes and ferro-silicon prices. Major producer Ferroglobe expressed concern that silicon was excluded from these measures, but welcomed "the commission's commitment to address this in a second step in the coming months". The EU has not publicly communicated any additional trade defence investigations for silicon metal. By Maeve Flaherty and Samuel Wood Price thresholds for tariff increase €/t Product type HS / CN codes Price threshold Ferro-manganese 7202 11, 7202 19 1,316 Ferro-silicon 7202 21, 7202 29 2,408 Ferro-silico-manganese 7202 30 1,392 Ferro-silico-magnesium 7202 99 30 3,647 — WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 1 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 1 From 18.11.2025 to 17.2.2026 From 18.2.2026 to 17.5.2026 From 18.5.2026 to 17.8.2026 From 18.8.2026 to 17.11.2026 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 28,972.70 28,027.93 28,972.70 28,972.70 India 17,625.79 17,051.04 17,625.79 17,625.79 South Africa 8,272.87 8,003.10 8,272.87 8,272.87 Malaysia 6,765.92 6,545.29 6,765.92 6,765.92 South Korea 4,832.82 4,675.23 4,832.82 4,832.82 Other countries 5,557.54 5,376.31 5,557.54 5,557.54 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,136.16 33,990.41 35,136.16 35,136.16 Iceland 13,373.32 12,937.24 13,373.32 13,373.32 Kazakhstan 8,090.25 7,826.44 8,090.25 8,090.25 Brazil 6,316.02 6,110.06 6,316.02 6,316.02 Other countries 24,984.27 24,169.56 24,984.27 24,984.27 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 468.90 453.61 468.90 468.90 Brazil 99.81 96.55 99.81 99.81 India 78.90 76.33 78.90 78.90 Thailand 76.83 74.32 76.83 76.83 Other countries 18.89 18.28 18.89 18.89 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,067.71 35,858.98 37,067.71 37,067.71 India 31,958.61 30,916.48 31,958.61 31,958.61 Zambia 7,882.49 7,625.45 7,882.49 7,882.49 Other countries 18,955.56 18,337.44 18,955.56 18,955.56 - WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 2 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 2 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 29,001.67 28,055.96 29,001.67 29,001.67 India 17,643.42 17,068.09 17,643.42 17,643.42 South Africa 8,281.14 8,011.10 8,281.14 8,281.14 Malaysia 6,772.68 6,551.83 6,772.68 6,772.68 South Korea 4,837.65 4,679.90 4,837.65 4,837.65 Other countries 5,563.09 5,381.69 5,563.09 5,563.09 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,171.30 34,024.41 35,171.30 35,171.30 Iceland 13,386.70 12,950.18 13,386.70 13,386.70 Kazakhstan 8,098.34 7,834.27 8,098.34 8,098.34 Brazil 6,322.34 6,116.17 6,322.34 6,322.34 Other countries 25,009.25 24,193.73 25,009.25 25,009.25 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 469.37 454.07 469.37 469.37 Brazil 99.91 96.65 99.91 99.91 India 78.98 76.40 78.98 78.98 Thailand 76.91 74.40 76.91 76.91 Other countries 18.91 18.30 18.91 18.91 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,104.78 35,894.84 37,104.78 37,104.78 India 31,990.57 30,947.40 31,990.57 31,990.57 Zambia 7,890.37 7,633.08 7,890.37 7,890.37 Other countries 18,974.51 18,355.78 18,974.51 18,974.51 — WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 3 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 3 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 28,951.35 28,321.98 28,951.35 28,951.35 India 17,612.81 17,229.92 17,612.81 17,612.81 South Africa 8,266.77 8,087.06 8,266.77 8,266.77 Malaysia 6,760.93 6,613.95 6,760.93 6,760.93 Korea. Republic of 4,829.26 4,724.28 4,829.26 4,829.26 Other countries 5,553.44 5,432.71 5,553.44 5,553.44 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,110.27 34,347.01 35,110.27 35,110.27 Iceland 13,363.47 13,072.96 13,363.47 13,363.47 Kazakhstan 8,084.29 7,908.55 8,084.29 8,084.29 Brazil 6,311.37 6,174.16 6,311.37 6,311.37 Other countries 24,965.86 24,423.13 24,965.86 24,965.86 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 468.56 458.37 468.56 468.56 Brazil 99.73 97.56 99.73 99.73 India 78.84 77.13 78.84 78.84 Thailand 76.77 75.10 76.77 76.77 Other countries 18.88 18.47 18.88 18.88 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,040.40 36,235.18 37,040.40 37,040.40 India 31,935.07 31,240.83 31,935.07 31,935.07 Zambia 7,876.68 7,705.45 7,876.68 7,876.68 Other countries 18,941.59 18,529.82 18,941.59 18,941.59 — WTO, European Commission Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

S Korea expands car support, plans trade-in EV policy


14/11/25
14/11/25

S Korea expands car support, plans trade-in EV policy

Singapore, 14 November (Argus) — The South Korean government has announced a wide range of financing and support for its automobile industry, while raising its electric vehicle (EV) subsidies budget and disclosing plans for a trade-in scheme to spur EV purchases. Over 15 trillion South Korean won ($10.31bn) of policy financing will be earmarked by the country for its car and auto parts makers in 2026, said the country's trade and industry ministry (Motie) on 14 November. It comes as intensifying competition in artificial intelligence autonomous driving technology and impacts on the domestic automobile manufacturing base threatens the country's auto sector that is its manufacturing stronghold, Motie said without providing more details, adding to the potential burden from earlier US-South Korea tariff deal . The country is looking to maintain a domestic car production of 4mn units/yr while improving the production quality. The government will also raise its budget for EV subsidies to around W936bn next year, up from an estimated W715bn this year. It is looking to establish a new purchase financing program for electric and hydrogen buses. It also plans to introduce a trade-in subsidy of up to W1mn for new EV buyers who scrap their old cars starting in 2026, in a similar fashion to China's efforts to spur Chinese EV purchases. "Considering the South Korean government's previous policy trajectory, a gradual reduction in EV subsidies would have been the more expected approach," Beomseok Kim, analyst at South Korean market intelligence firm SNE Research told Argus today. But the government appears to have determined that stronger stimulus is needed to re-energise domestic demand given a slower pace of electrification than initially projected, Kim added. The package expanding incentives beyond the 2025 levels signals the government's commitment to keep the momentum alive. South Korea's battery EV domestic sales hit an all-time-high earlier in September, riding on its current eco-friendly vehicle domestic sales uptrend. The South Korean government is expecting an accelerated eco-friendly vehicle adoption trend and it is planning ahead by supporting internal combustion engine (ICE) car parts makers' transition. Financial and R&D support will be focused on its industrial green transformation strategy, while designating 200 "future vehicle specialised companies" by 2030 and having 70pc of its ICE parts companies transition to future vehicles parts firms. The country is eyeing mass production of autonomous vehicles by 2028, with institutional improvements supporting the ambition to be potentially achieved by the end of 2026. South Korean conglomerate Hyundai Motor earlier in October unveiled its goal of turning India into an export hub through a planned Indian investment of $5.1bn through to 2030. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rio Tinto halts flagship Li project in Serbia


13/11/25
13/11/25

Rio Tinto halts flagship Li project in Serbia

London, 13 November (Argus) — Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto is indefinitely suspending development of Jadar, its flagship European lithium project in Serbia, as part of cost-cutting measures and in line with its new chief executive's initiatives to streamline operations. Rio instead will prioritize other shorter-term opportunities and reduce costs, according to reports confirmed by the company, which no longer could justify the required expenses and resource allocation given delays the permitting process. The company has been trying to commission the project since its discovery in 2004. It signed a memorandum of understanding with the Serbian government in 2017 to advance it, but was stopped by permitting issues and staunch opposition by local communities. Jadar, wholly owned by Rio Tinto, is one of the largest confirmed greenfield lithium resources in the world at 16.6mn metric tonnes (t) of lithium-borate ore with an average grade of 1.8pc lithium oxide, which is high compared with similar resources. Rio Tinto had committed $2.4bn to the project. Some market participants have long expressed skepticism over Jadar's chances. "I never believed it would happen for many reasons, from technical to social, and licensing perspectives," one market source told Argus . "Rio was basically losing money every year keeping it, so stopping it makes sense," said another one. The move comes less than three months after the company announced a global restructure of its operations under the guidance of newly appointed chief executive Simon Trott. Lithium is one of Rio Tinto's main divisions after the restructure. Earlier this year, the company finalized the $6.7bn acquisition of Arcadium Lithium , Argentina's largest producer. Rio is also primed to be one of Chile's largest lithium producers after securing two major mining concessions. By Chris Welch and Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Critical minerals discussions gain momentum


13/11/25
13/11/25

Cop: Critical minerals discussions gain momentum

Belem, 13 November (Argus) — Conversations on the importance of critical minerals to a just energy transition have gained momentum at the UN Cop 30 climate summit, a delegate told Argus . The UK has proposed a draft text to include critical minerals — such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements — in the supply chain of a just energy transition, Melissa Marengo, a senior program officer at New York-based environmental group Natural Resource Governance Institute, said. The text has been backed so far by the EU, Australia and a plethora of African nations. Tanzania stands out as a champion on the topic, she said. Mention of critical minerals and recommendations around their sustainable development in a Cop outcome could mark the "change of a paradigm" in how the world uses critical minerals, Marengo said. "Everyone knows we will need to set rules [to] access critical minerals", she added. A UN-convened panel last year outlined principles and recommendations on a sustainable and equitable critical minerals industry. Zimbabwe, Africa's top lithium producer, included minerals governance in its national position for Cop 30. South Africa, Uganda, and Burkina Faso — speaking on behalf of the group of least developed countries — echoed the call to integrate minerals into just transition discussions and the Cop 30 outcome. Brazil has also said it supports transparency, combatting illegal mining and corruption and protections for human rights and the environment. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already set the stage for the conversations at last week's world leaders' summit, held just ahead of Cop 30. "We cannot discuss the energy transition without addressing critical minerals, which are essential for the production of batteries, solar panels, and energy systems", he said during a session on energy transition during the leaders' climate summit. Although the interest from developed ‘Global North' countries certainly stems from economic interests, having them mention the topic in the first days of Cop 30 is a win and "shows the minerals issue is now on track to be reflected in Cop 30 outcomes", Marengo said. Other countries, including Chile and Colombia, have been working on this topic in parallel to Cop 30. Chile is the world's foremost copper producer and the second-biggest lithium producer. Colombia plans to call for a global accountability framework on mining impacts. China, a key producer of solar panels and batteries, has not made any formal comments on the topic yet at Cop 30 but has been taking informal meetings in the matter, Marengo said. China is "the dominant refiner" for most critical minerals, "holding an average market share of around 70pc", energy watchdog the IEA said in May. China is more focused on the phase out of fossil fuels, one of the more prominent topics at Cop 30, Marengo said. And getting China on board of a text mentioning critical minerals might not be an easy task, she added, given its manufacturing industries. But she hopes any final text will include the UN guidelines. "It sets the very minimum considerations that should be taken when you want to extract minerals", she said. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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