Brazil's 2024-25 crop to total 322.5mn t: Correction

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Fertilizers
18/10/24

Corrects estimates for wheat crop in the first paragraph the "Wheat, cotton lint" subhed.

Brazil´s 2024-25 grain and oilseed crop is set to reach approximately 322.5mn t, 8.3pc above the 2023-24 results amid an increased outlook for estimated yields.

The national supply company (Conab) released its first estimate report for the 2024-25 season and expects yields of 3,964 kg/hectare (ha), up by 6.2pc from the prior cycle. The planted area forecast was increased to 81.3mn ha from 79.8mn ha in 2023-24 crop.

Conab has also revised slightly down its final yield and production estimates for the 2023-24 crop. The previous season produced 297.9mn t — from 298.4mn t estimated last month — with average yields of 3,731 kg/ha — instead of the 3,739 kg/ha last estimated. Planted area remained at 79.8mn ha.

The volume is also below the preliminary outlook for the 2024-25 crop, which Conab released in September. Conab's publication estimated 326.9mn t, which would be a new record for Brazil. The planted area was estimated at 84.4mn ha, with yields of 4,016 kg/ha.

Soybean

Brazil's 2024-25 soybean crop is expected to total 166.1mn t, a rise of 12.7pc from the 2023-24 season's volumes of 147.4mn t.

The output is slightly down from preliminary estimates from September, when Conab estimated production of 166.3mn t, with a planted area of 47.4mn ha and yields at 3,508 kg/ha.

The yearly increase is supported by higher sowed area and yield estimates. Conab projects the cycle to sow approximately 47.3mn ha, an expansion of 1.3mn ha on the year, while estimated yields were up by 9.6pc to 3,508 kg/ha.

Corn

Brazil is initially set to produce 119.7mn t of corn in 2024-25, including the first, second and third crops, according to Conab. That is 3.5pc — or 4mn t — above the 2023-24 volumes.

The increase is supported by the 3.7pc rise of expected yields to 5,701 kg/ha. Planted area is estimated at 21mn ha, down by 0.2pc from the 2023-24 cycle.

Conab estimated in September production of 119.8mn t, with a planted area and yields of 21mn ha and 5,706 kg/ha, respectively.

For the winter corn cycle — also known as the second crop — Conab projects that the 2024-25 second corn crop will produce 94.6mn t, up by 4.8pc from 90.3mn t in the previous crop.

Yield estimates were increased to 5,702 kg/ha from 5,491 kg/ha, while the planted area estimate went up by nearly 159,200ha to 16.6mn ha.

In September, Conab estimated production of 94mn t, with a planted area of 16.5mn ha and yields at 5,700 kg/ha.

The 2024-25 summer corn — also known as the first crop — is expected to decrease by 1.1pc to 22.7mn t this year. The 5.4pc reduction in acreage to 3.8mn ha more than offsets the 4.6pc expected increase of yields to 6,049 kg/ha.

In September, Conab estimated production of 23.4mn t, with a planted area of 3.8mn ha and yields at 6,080 kg/ha.

Wheat, cotton lint

Brazil's wheat production is estimated at approximately 8.3mn t in 2024. Yields and planted area are set to reach 2,693 kg/ha and 3.1mn ha, respectively. Conab should release the estimate for 2025 crop in February, as planting usually starts in main producing states.

Conab projects the 2024-25 cotton lint production at 3.7mn t, approximately 7,900t below the previous season.

The yearly decrease is driven by a 3.1pc drop of yields to 1,831 kg/ha, more than offsetting the 2.9pc expansion in estimated planted area to over 2mn ha.

In September, Conab preliminarily estimated production of 3.7mn t, with a planted area of 2mn ha and yields at 1,831 kg/ha.

2024-25 soy exports revised up

Brazil's expected 2024-25 soybean exports are set to total a record 105.5mn t. That is up by 14.2pc — or 13.1mn t — from 92.4mn t in the previous crop, amid a higher demand expected specially from China.

Soybean crushing for the season is set to total 56.6mn t up by 8pc from the previous crop, amid an expected increase of soybean oil production by nearly 830,000 t to 11.4mn t.

But corn exports are set to drop to 34mn t in the 2024-25 crop from 36mn t in the previous cycle.

The 2023-24 corn exports represent a decrease by 27pc compared to the record 54.6mn t exported a year previous. Lower Brazilian production and higher international availability, specially considering the US production, weigh on exports from Brazil.

By João Petrini

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