US economy grows by 2.8pc in 3Q, led by consumers

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
30/10/24

The US economy grew by an annualized 2.8pc in the third quarter, led by consumer and government spending and exports.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed from 3pc in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported today. Personal consumption grew at a 3.7pc pace, up from 2.8pc in the second quarter and 3.5pc a year earlier.

Today's GDP estimate is the first of three for the quarter, and comes in slightly below analyst estimates in a Trading Economics survey of 3pc growth. The latest figure marks a 10th quarter of GDP growth since a 1pc contraction in the first quarter of 2022. It comes ahead of a closely fought presidential election on 5 November in which the health of the economy is a major issue.

Exports grew by 8.9pc in the latest quarter compared with 1pc in the second quarter. Imports, which subtract from growth, grew by 11.2pc.

Government spending, including investment for defense, rose by 5pc following 3.1pc growth in the second quarter. Private domestic investment slowed to 0.3pc growth from 8.3pc growth. Residential investment fell by 5.1pc, as the housing market remains in a downturn, after declining by 2.8pc in the second quarter.

By Bob Willis

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09/12/24

Shale M&A to pick up pace in 2025 after hitting pause

New York, 9 December (Argus) — A slowdown in shale deals in recent months is set to be reversed next year, helped in part by speculation that oil and gas mergers will have an easier time getting anti-trust approval under president-elect Donald Trump. The $12bn in upstream deals recorded in the third quarter was the lowest tally since the first three months of 2023, just before a record-breaking streak that reshaped the shale landscape and was dominated by blockbuster transactions involving ExxonMobil and Chevron. While buyers have been focused on winning approval from a zealous regulator and pushing deals over the finish line, attention is turning to the billions of dollars of unwanted assets they are likely to want to offload, with companies from ExxonMobil to Occidental Petroleum already active on this front. "You do one of these mega-mergers and now you have to pay for it," law firm Hogan Lovells partner Niki Roberts says. "You pay for it by selling off all the stuff you didn't really want to begin with." One potential upside from the Trump administration may be less attention from the Federal Trade Commission, which has paid closer scrutiny to oil deals in recent months as it cracks down on anti-competitive behaviour. Tie-ups have been delayed while the regulator has sought more details, and two high-profile oil executives were barred from the boards of their acquirers as a condition of approving deals. "The antitrust regulators have been viewed by particularly the traditional oil and gas industry of late as not being friendly to that industry," law firm Sidley global leader of energy, transport and infrastructure Cliff Vrielink says. "You're going to see less resistance to consolidation and you're going to see more people pursuing those opportunities." Oil market volatility has hampered mergers and acquisitions in the past, but observers say price swings are less of a factor these days. And more deals are needed to help companies boost their inventory of drilling locations for as long as cash flow remains king and growing through the drillbit is challenged. Lower interest rates, controlled inflation and regulatory reforms all point to a "robust" M&A market, Sidley partner Stephen Boone says. The majority of deal-making has been focused on oil in recent years, but natural gas is "having a bit of a moment", aided by the surge in demand from a boom in energy-hungry US data centres that are developing and supporting artificial intelligence, Boone says. Privates on parade Private equity is also making a gradual comeback, with teams looking to deploy fresh capital in oil and gas. Quantum Capital Group raised over $10bn in October and EnCap Investments has reloaded with about $6.4bn. "We are just now getting back to pre-pandemic levels of commitment," Boone says. "That bodes towards probably more private equity involvement in the oil and gas space." Fierce competition to get a foothold in the prized Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico has sent valuations soaring, and prompted some would-be buyers to look further afield to plays such as the Uinta in Utah and North Dakota's Bakken. "The Permian stays of interest to many because of its consistent returns, but the Permian is a crowded place right now, and so I do think we'll see development of other basins," Roberts says. "But it's all going to depend on price." Close to $300bn in upstream deals were signed in the US over the past two years and this has whittled down the list of remaining targets. But the largest producers may not be done when it comes to seeking out potential acquisitions. "We don't stop looking," ConocoPhillips vice-president and treasurer Konnie Haynes-Welsh told the Rice Energy Finance Summit on 15 November. "We're always looking to be opportunistic." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Atlantic LNG: US fob prices edge lower

06/12/24

Atlantic LNG: US fob prices edge lower

London, 6 December (Argus) — Fob LNG prices for loadings in the US Gulf coast slipped on Friday, adding to losses posted over Wednesday-Thursday to end the week lower. The Argus Gulf Coast (AGC) January fob price fell to $13.81/mn Btu, from $13.90/mn Btu a day earlier, and $14.16/mn Btu at the end of last week, following similar losses in European delivered markets. But the price continued to track European des prices, as the inter-basin arbitrage for US January loadings held shut with European markets holding at a discount to Asia that was too tight to cover the additional spot freight costs — which have been buoyed by a recent small rise in prompt spot charter rates over this week. The ARV3 prompt rate for US-northeast Asia by tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) carriers was assessed at $14,000/d on Friday, up from $12,000/d a week earlier, while the corresponding ARV6 two-stroke rate rose to $28,500/d on Friday from $24,000/d. US LNG production this week has been steady at six of the country's operational liquefaction terminals. But Texas' 17.3mn t/yr Freeport LNG export terminal experienced a trip at its first of three liquefaction trains on 4 December, because of an unspecified issue at a compressor system, according to a state regulatory filing by the facility. That said, the terminal's feedgas receipts quickly rebounded a day later to reach 2.02bn ft³ over the day — the most received by the terminal since 13 November. Freeport was nominated to take 2.12bn ft³ on Friday, though the terminal has historically taken less at times than it has initially nominated to receive. Even with one day of downtime at a single train this week, Freeport's gas receipts were still greater than during the previous week, when deliveries over the opening three days of the week were also at levels suggesting one train of off line. Deliveries to the planned 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines terminal — set to be the US' eighth liquefaction terminal — have held at low levels, suggesting that the facility may still be only receiving enough gas to meet its on-site needs rather than fully starting liquefaction operations. The 174,000m³ Venture Bayou remained at the facility on Friday, where it has been since mid-November. Plaquemines received a cool-down cargo in late September, for which it has regulatory approval to re-export, as well as a further two cool-down cargoes that have not been delivered to the facility. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

06/12/24

Republicans weigh two-step plan on energy, taxes

Washington, 6 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US Congress are considering trying to pass president-elect Donald Trump's legislative agenda by voting first on a filibuster-proof budget package that revises energy policy, then taking up a separate tax cut bill later in 2025. The two-part strategy, floated by incoming US Senate majority leader John Thune (R-South Dakota), could deliver Trump an early win by putting immigration, border security and energy policy changes into a single budget bill that could pass early next year without Democratic support. Republicans would then have more time to debate a separate — and likely more complex — budget package that would focus on extending a tax package expected to cost more than $4 trillion over 10 years. The legislative strategy is a "possibility" floated among Senate Republicans for achieving Trump's legislative goals on "energy dominance," the border, national security and extending tax cuts, Thune said in an interview with Fox News this week. Thune said he was still having conversations with House Republicans and Trump's team on what strategy to pursue. Republicans plan to use a process called budget reconciliation to advance most of Trump's legislative goals, which would avoid a Democratic filibuster but restrict the scope of policy changes to those that directly affect the budget. But some Republicans worry the potential two-part strategy could fracture the caucus and cause some key policies getting dropped, spurring a debate among Republicans over how to move forward. "We have a menu of options in front of us," US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said this week in an interview with Fox News. "Leader Thune and I were talking as recently as within the last hour about the priority of how we do it and in what sequence." Republicans have yet to decide what changes they will make to the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars of tax credits for wind, solar, electric vehicles, battery manufacturing, carbon capture and clean hydrogen. A group of 18 House Republicans in August said they opposed a "full repeal" of the 2022 law. Republicans next year will start with only a 220-215 majority in the House, which will then drop to 217-215 once two Republicans join the Trump administration and representative Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) resigns. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

06/12/24

US House panel approves river infrastructure bill

Houston, 6 December (Argus) — A US House of Representatives committee has approved a bipartisan bill that authorizes improvements to navigation channels by the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and maintenance and dredging of river and port infrastructure projects. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee advanced the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) after several months of political wrangling to integrate earlier versions of the legislation approved by the House and Senate . The bill will head to the full House next week, said committee chairman Sam Graves (R-Missouri). This would be the sixth consecutive bipartisan WRDA bill since 2014 if passed by congress. WRDA is a biennial bill that authorizes the Corps to continue working on projects to improve waterways, including port updates, flood protection and supply chain management. WRDA will also "reduce cumbersome red tape", which will allow for quicker project turnarounds, Graves said. The bill authorizes processes to streamline work, he said. The bill also adjusts the primary cost-sharing mechanism for funding for lock and dam construction and major rehabilitation projects. The US Treasury Department's general fund will pay 75pc of costs, up from 65pc, with the rest coming from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is funded by a barge diesel fuel tax. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tight supply fuels Indian interest in wire rod imports

06/12/24

Tight supply fuels Indian interest in wire rod imports

Mumbai, 6 December (Argus) — Interest in steel wire rod imports is increasing in India owing to limited domestic availability, delivery snags and high prices set by primary producers, according to industry sources. Unspecified quantities of Chinese low-carbon wire rod were booked for $515-520/t cfr Mumbai, excluding value-added tax, in the past few weeks, sources in both China and India told Argus . High-carbon wire rod was also heard to have been purchased from China recently, although this could not be confirmed. The booking follows reduced supply from state-controlled long products manufacturer Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL), according to a Mumbai-based long products trading firm. RINL at present is grappling with financial difficulties and raw material shortages, which has taken a toll on its production. Many participants have questioned this purchase, as no Chinese mill has a Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) certificate required for exporting wire rod to India. Non-BIS material can be cleared by customs only if the material is used to manufacture goods that will be exported. The booking has been made under the advance licence scheme, which allows for such non-BIS imports, a source said. But there are only a handful of wire manufacturers that export their product and can use imported wire rods, according to market participants. At a trade fair in Mumbai last month, wire manufacturers said they were increasingly seeking alternatives to domestic primary wire rod as high input costs were squeezing their margins. High-carbon wire rod was priced at 57,000-58,000 rupees/t ($672-684/t) by major domestic producers on a delivered basis in western India, sources said. Chinese offers stood at $570-580/t cfr India for high-carbon wire rod a few weeks ago, but have now fallen to $560/t cfr, a trading source said. Wire manufacturers focused on domestic sales were turning to secondary wire rod, which was nearly 20pc cheaper than primary material, according to a participant at the Mumbai trade fair. But trading companies and consumers pointed to availability as the bigger issue, with only a few major primary producers dominating the wire rod market. Securing a regular and timely supply of wire rod from primary mills has become a major challenge, causing supply chain disruptions for end-users, they said. "The price is one factor, but availability is also a key issue. Mills are unreliable when it comes to allocation and delivery of the material," a wire manufacturer said. "This has always been the case but not to the extent seen recently. Now supply concerns have become worse because of RINL's issues." RINL's finished steel output fell by 26pc on the year to 1.6mn t from April-October, according to provisional data from the steel ministry's joint plant committee. Another wire manufacturer said it had not imported wire rod for more than a year, but was now open to cheaper imports to protect its margins. For some finished products, such as automobile parts, it is essential to use wire rod from primary producers but imported or secondary material could be used to manufacture some other products, a manufacturing firm executive said. Long products amount to only a small portion of India's overall steel imports, which are dominated by hot-rolled coil and other flat products. From April-October this year, India imported about 49,300t of wire rod — including alloy, non-alloy and stainless steel products — an increase of more than 30pc on the year, according to data from the steel ministry's Joint Plant Committee. This made up less than 1pc of India's overall finished steel imports during the seven months. By Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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