Japan Ti producers' sales outlook mixed on Boeing woes

Spanish Market: Metals
12/11/24

Japanese titanium producers have mixed sales outlooks for the current fiscal year ending 31 March 2025, with different expectations on how strikes at Boeing could impact their financial performance.

Japanese producer Osaka Titanium Technologies has revised its titanium business sales forecast downward for the 2024-25 fiscal year by ¥3.5bn ($22.8mn) to ¥49bn from its initial outlook announced in May. This is mostly owing to a possible fall in titanium sponge sales following strikes and a series of quality management issues at Boeing, according to Osaka Titanium.

Boeing's union-backed machinists conducted a seven-week work stoppage that halted production of major jet programmes, before they approved a new labour contract with the aerospace company in early November.

Osaka Titanium is concerned about possible further impacts on the aerospace supply chain, the firm said. Boeing cautioned that it will take time for operations to stabilise.

Osaka Titanium's sales totalled ¥26.2bn in April-September, down by 2.8pc from a year earlier. Operating profit increased by 59.3pc on the year to ¥6.3bn, according to the company.

In contrast, another major Japanese producer, Toho Titanium, expects no major impact from the Boeing issue, keeping its overall sales outlook for the 2024-25 fiscal year unchanged at ¥95.3bn from the initial forecast announced in May.

The company did not disclose the breakdown of its titanium business but reiterated that there have been no cancellations of orders because of the Boeing issue, a Toho representative told Argus. Sales volume for overseas buyers are under fixed contracts until the end of December, he said, adding that the company's titanium sales forecast will not change for the remaining of the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Toho Titanium's sales totalled ¥43.8bn in April-September, up by 20pc from a year earlier. Operating profit increased to ¥2.4bn, up slightly from ¥2.3bn a year earlier.

By Yusuke Maekawa

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18/07/25

BHP beats global iron ore production guidance in FY25

Sydney, 18 July (Argus) — Australian iron ore producer BHP mined 263mn t of iron ore in the July 2024-June 2025 financial year, beating expectations, and despite facing severe weather challenges over the year. BHP had expected to produce at the lower end of its 255mn-265mn t range guidance because of disruptions due to February cyclones in Western Australia (WA) . But its final output sat firmly on the upper end of the guidance, the company's 18 July production report shows. BHP has set its 2025-26 financial year production guidance at 258mn-269mn t, on an equity basis. The increased guidance comes from both its WA mines and its 30mn t/yr Samarco mine in Brazil , which is currently ramping up to full capacity. BHP expects to produce 7mn-7.5mn t of ore at Samarco in the 2025-26 financial year, up from 6.4mn t last year. It will also produce 251mn-262mn t of ore at its WA mines — in-line with the 257mn t mined in the 2024-25 financial year. BHP's total iron ore output rose 1.6pc on the year in the April-June quarter to 70mn t (see table), driven by the ongoing ramp-up of Samarco. Production at the Brazilian mine hit 2mn t over the quarter, up 91pc on the year. The company produced 68mn t of ore at its larger WA mines in April-June, up 0.3pc on the year. BHP's output in WA increased in the 2024-25 financial year despite facing weather-related disruptions in early 2025. The company had shuttered many of its WA mines in mid-February, as Cyclone Zelia approached the state's coast. But operations resumed just days after the storm passed through the hub and had minimal impact on iron ore production. Elevated production at the company's 80mn t/yr South Flank mine fully offset the weather impacts. Production at BHP's Area C joint venture — including both South Flank and its Mining Area C operations — rose 13pc on the year in 2024-25 to 119mn t. BHP's sales were flat on the year in 2024-25, declining just 0.1pc to 256mn t. Its product mix remained similarly stagnant, with iron ore lumps accounting for 31pc of sales, up from 30pc a year earlier, and iron ore fines accounting for 69pc of sales, down from 70pc. By Avinash Govind BHP iron ore quarterly results mn t Apr-Jun '25 Apr-Jun '24 y-o-y Change (%) FY25 (July '24 - June '25) FY24 (July '23 - June '24) YTD Change (%) Production Western Australia 68 68 0.3 257 255 0.7 Samarco 2.0 1.0 91 6.4 4.7 34 Total 70 69 1.6 263 260 1.3 Sales Lumps 21 20 5.1 80 80 0.3 Fines 47 47 -1.1 176 176 -0.3 Total 68 67 0.8 256 256 -0.1 Source: BHP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: American Pacific sees copper growth ahead

17/07/25

Q&A: American Pacific sees copper growth ahead

Houston, 17 July (Argus) — US President Donald Trump's planned 50pc tariffs on copper imports could drive significant changes in the domestic industry. Argus spoke with American Pacific Mining chief executive Warwick Smith and managing director of exploration Eric Saderholm — owners of several copper assets in the US — on the short and long-term copper outlook. Edited highlights follow : Will the expected 50pc copper import tariffs play a lasting role in changing US production and smelting capacity? Saderholm : Copper tariffs will greatly impact copper-centric companies. Both miners and downstream users will certainly be affected. The overall tariff moves are somewhat founded but I do not know if they will work across the board, especially for producing and refining domestic copper. The problem lies in the fact that while the US has significant copper reserves, it will take a long time to build new mines. The US really has no way to keep up with the copper production needed to be self-reliant. We must have smelting capabilities as well. Our processing techniques have been compromised over the last several decades, especially with smelters. We have allowed many US smelters to be blown up, removed, or become nonfunctional. The US government will have to think about funding the construction of smelters. Smith : The copper "tariff talk" from the White House has already started to play a role, as prices drastically increased following the tariff announcement. Larger US refined copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto, will likely need to start acquiring new copper sources under development. As larger companies scramble to look for US-based copper assets to build new mines, smaller companies with assets in the US will see stronger demand. Considering the inverse US dollar/copper price relationship and the falling dollar in the last year, do you see further incentives for more investment? Smith : I think this area of investment to move these assets forward has been under appreciated and under financed for at least a decade, up until the last two months. More money will continue to come into the market out of necessity, not because of a sudden shift. The world is heading in an increasingly "green" direction, which requires copper. We are seeing that partially play out now. I think there will be more significant investment into both major mid-tier and smaller mining companies that focus on copper as well. With the IEA and others warning of a copper deficit by 2035, do you expect the US to run into supply issues with current production capabilities? Smith : I think the short answer is yes because of an escalating supply-demand imbalance. The US will need to catch up in terms of production and finding new assets. Expediting permitting timelines will also be key to catching up on production. Not only is there a need to find new mines, but a need to permit them quickly enough to get them into production and drive those assets forward. What efforts by the current administration to shorten permitting, construction and start up times would contribute the most to additional capacity? Smith : They have come up with the FAST 41 transparency list focused on expediting strategic metal projects. The FAST 41 list is quite smart. Anecdotally speaking, getting exploration permits has become a lot quicker than under the Biden administration. We have worked since the Obama administration and Republicans do make things move a lot quicker. There is a project that we own in Nevada that under Obama, took us 6.5 weeks to get permits to drill. Under Trump, the first permit approval took four days. That is just exploration drilling now when you think about permitting in mind. You can extrapolate those timelines virtually the same way. It makes a big difference. From that standpoint, we like what they are doing. Some of the Department of Defense funding has also been very helpful. They have put a lot of money into that as well. I think they are doing a lot of the right things on that front. Saderholm : The expedited permitting initiatives are a bit of a double-edged sword. With Trump taking office at the beginning of the year, he wanted a lot of federal jobs to be eliminated. We have had issues with the lack of personnel. Even though they want to fast-track permits, there are not a whole lot of people to fast track them for you. Where do your Palmer VMS and Madison Mine projects stand currently? Smith : The Madison asset in Montana is our flagship. It is a really high-grade skarn surface with a porphyry underneath. We're wrapping up some drilling there and will lead another drill campaign shortly. The location is great as well. It is 40 miles from one of the largest porphyries in the world. It has the hallmarks that it could be a big winner for us. We also own 100pc of the Palmer project, a 16.7mn tonne volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) project up in Alaska. We have had many discussions about the project with other groups interested in the asset. The asset is probably 8-10 years away from production. By Reagan Patrowicz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

17/07/25

Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

Sydney, 17 July (Argus) — US producer Alcoa's aluminium output increased on the year in April-June despite the months-long closure of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. But its bauxite and alumina output fell in the quarter. Aluminium Alcoa smelted 572,000t of aluminium in April-June, up by 5.3pc on the year, the company said in a quarterly report on 17 July. It has maintained its 2025 aluminium production guidance at 2.3mn-2.5mn t, which it set in January. The increase came from the continued ramp-up of its 447,000 t/yr Alumar smelter in Brazil. It operates the smelter with Australian producer South32 . The two companies reopened the aluminium smelter in 2024 after a nine-year production halt. Alcoa's Alumar ramp-up offset production declines from the shutdown of its San Ciprián aluminium smelter in Spain. The company initially paused production at the 228,000 t/yr plant in December 2021. It began a phased restart in early 2024 , but paused it in late-April 2025 because of a major power outage. Alcoa will fully restart the plant by mid-2026 with the support of energy solutions provider Ignis Equity Holdings. Alcoa shipped 581,000t of produced aluminium in April-June, as well as 53,000t of third-party aluminium, pushing down its total shipments by 6.5pc on the year ( see table ). The company also reduced its 2025 aluminium shipment guidance to 2.5mn-2.6mn t from its April forecast of 2.6mn-2.8mn t because of the San Ciprián shutdown. Alcoa, like many other global aluminium producers, faced tariff pressures in April-June. The company redirected some Canadian-produced aluminium away from the US over the quarter, it told investors. Alcoa expects tariffs to cost $90mn in July-September. US tariffs similarly cost UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto in April-June . It paid $712/t of aluminium shipped to the US over the quarter, the company told investors on 16 July. Bauxite and alumina Alcoa produced 9.3mn t of bauxite and 2.4mn t of alumina in April-June, down by 2.1pc and by 7.4pc on the year respectively. It shut its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery in late 2024, reducing its production capacity. The company has maintained its 2025 calendar year alumina production guidance at 9.5mn-9.7mn t, unchanged from April. It also cut its produced alumina shipments in the quarter to 2.4mn t, down from 2.6mn t a year earlier, but this was supplemented by third-party shipments. The company maintained its 2025 alumina shipment guidance at 13.1mn-13.3mn t. Alcoa will ship more alumina than it produces in 2025 because it plans to use third-party sales as a substitute for Kwinana production to meet existing shipment obligations. By Avinash Govind Alcoa quarterly report mn t Apr-Jun '25 Apr-Jun '24 y-o-y Change (%) Jan-Jun '25 Jan-Jun '24 YTD Change (%) Production Bauxite 9.3 9.5 -2.1 18.8 19.6 -4.1 Alumina 2.4 2.5 -7.4 4.7 5.2 -9.7 Aluminium 0.6 0.5 5.3 1.1 1.1 4.7 Shipments Alumina (produced) 2.4 2.6 -8.1 4.7 5.2 -9.9 Alumina shipments (other) 3.3 3.3 -0.2 6.5 6.6 -2.3 Aluminium (produced) 0.6 0.6 -2.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 Aluminium (other) 0.05 0.1 -36.6 0.1 0.2 -43.4 — Alcoa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

16/07/25

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues

16/07/25

UK HDG buyers duplicate import orders amid quota issues

London, 16 July (Argus) — UK hot-dip galvanised importers are increasing imported order volumes in some instances because of the government's imposition of a 15pc cap on the other countries' quota. The UK business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, imposed the cap on 24 June, days before the quota reset on 1 July, stranding supply from South Korea and Vietnam . HMRC has now suspended clearances into the quotas for Vietnam and South Korea — the main users of the other countries' quota — until 1 August, meaning steel cannot be accessed even where buyers are willing to pay a duty. This is contributing to storage issues at major ports, particularly Liverpool. One service centre said major construction companies are worried about delays to some projects because of availability issues on particular gauges and coatings. Because of the potential disruption, some buyers have booked material elsewhere, in particular from Turkish rerollers, to avoid supply issues. The government's action, designed to protect the domestic producer Tata Steel, has "increased the amount of imports, as we are having to go elsewhere aside from South Korea and Vietnam", one service centre said. Tata does not produce all the necessary sizes and specifications for domestic buyers, sources suggest. There is typically abundant EU quota for HDG, but European mills, like Tata, struggle to compete with Asian sellers because of their higher energy costs. Simone Jordan, the director of the International Steel Trade Association (ISTA), called on the secretary of state to "address this catastrophic situation and reconsider his determination". Import volumes not rising There has been no real increase in third-country hot-dip galvanised coil imports into the UK since the US imposition of Section 232 in 2018. The country imported 468,500t of HDG last year, compared with just over 485,000t in 2018; there was a large jump in 2021, to over 732,000t, as buyers scrambled to source material following the Covid-19 pandemic, when demand increased much more sharply than European supply. The most notable change in imports is the increased share of South Korea, which has risen from around 15pc of non-EU imports in 2018 to over 43pc today. Much of that growth started last year, when a leading producer in the country started to divert automotive material into the general industrial market in the UK. Vietnamese volumes have also ratcheted up in recent years, partly because it was exempt from the safeguard on HDG for a period, before it came into scope. Vietnam is the largest importer of Chinese hot-rolled coil, whose low-priced exports have reshaped global trade flows in the last year. Turkey, which is now exempt from the UK safeguard on HDG, is also a large buyer of Chinese HRC; indeed, the country's rerollers can avoid dumping duties on Chinese material, provided it is re-exported. Vietnam and South Korea shipped over 281,000t of HDG to the UK last year, accounting for over 60pc of third country volumes, and account for almost three-quarters of third country imports over January-May this year. India has been the cheapest supplier of HDG into the UK on average this year, according to customs data. The average landed Indian price has been £587/t cfr, followed by Taiwan at £607/t and Vietnam at £618/t. Vietnam is the cheapest import source on average, at £472/t, closely followed by India at £475/t. Tata Steel is the largest buyer of Indian coil in the UK at present. By Colin Richardson UK HDG imports Tonnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan Ti producers' sales outlook mixed on Boeing woes

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BHP beats global iron ore production guidance in FY25

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Alcoa's global Al output up, bauxite and alumina fall

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New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

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