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US rail group optimistic about 2025 rail demand

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, Electricity, Fertilizers, Freight, LPG, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
  • 12/12/24

US rail volume is likely to start strong in 2025, but railroads will need to navigate changing federal policies, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said.

Volume next year hinges on a few key factors, including the resilience of consumer spending, strength in the labor market, and the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, the group said.

Railroads will need to remain vigilant as these economic indicators will be critical in helping assess rail traffic and broader economic health in the months ahead, AAR said.

"Strong intermodal growth and stable consumer demand offers reasons for optimism," AAR said. "But railroads and the economy alike must navigate evolving policies and potential disruptions" as the US enters 2025 under a new administration, the group said.

The AAR'S optimism comes as rail traffic in November "while by no means stellar, suggests that the broader economy remains on stable footing", AAR said.

US intermodal rail volume set new records in November. The increase reflected strong consumer demand following job gains that pushed increased spending, AAR said. Intermodal traffic is made up primarily of consumer goods shipped in containers between different modes of transportation, although some scrap metal and specialty agriculture products ship this way.

US railroads loaded an average of 282,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week, up by 11pc from a year earlier. That was the highest weekly average for any November since AAR began tracking intermodal data in 1989.

Carload traffic fell by 3.8pc compared with November 2023. Carload traffic is primarily made up of commodities.

Coal was the "biggest problem", AAR said. US railroads loaded 15pc less coal last month compared with a year earlier, while year-to-date loadings were down by 14pc from the same 11 months in 2023.

If coal were excluded, monthly US carload traffic in November would have notched a 10th consecutive year-on-year increase.

Industrial products volume was down by 1pc from a year earlier. Manufacturing is a major driver of US carload traffic, and that sector remains sluggish, AAR said.


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10/02/25

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: No major tariff impacts yet: Enbridge


07/02/25
07/02/25

Crude Summit: No major tariff impacts yet: Enbridge

Houston, 7 February (Argus) — Canadian midstream company Enbridge said that potential US tariffs on Canadian crude imports have not yet had a major impact on cross-border flows on its 3mn b/d Mainline pipeline system. Enbridge is in a unique position to comment on the US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were set to take effect on 4 February, but were delayed this week until early March. The company operates both the Mainline pipeline system, which it describes as the largest single point of commerce between Canada and the US, as well as the largest US crude export terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas. While Enbridge would not pay the tariffs, as it does not hold title to the crude shipments, its shippers could be subject to higher costs in the form of a 10pc US tariff on Canadian crude imports that could take effect in early March. It could also be affected by a 10pc Chinese retaliatory tariff on US imports, effective from 10 February. "We have not seen any significant disruption in the flows on our Canadian systems yet," Enbridge senior vice president of business development Phil Anderson told the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "It is: plan for the worst and hope for the best." Enbridge also owns and operates the Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) near Corpus Christi, which handles about 25pc of all US crude exports. China accounts for a "relatively small" portion of EIEC shipments, and the Chinese counter-tariffs will not have a significant impact, Anderson said. Corpus Christi crude exports set an all-time high in November 2024 at 2.6mn b/d, besting the previous high of 2.5mn b/d set in August. Enbridge and other Corpus Christi shippers have benefited from a channel-deepening project there that allows them to load more crude onto larger vessels. The Port of Corpus Christi is making progress on the last phases of a channel-deepening project, which will give mid-sized tankers better access to export docks in the port's Inner Harbor. The project aims to increase the channel depth to 54ft from 47ft and widen it to 530ft. The latest phase of the project, which runs from west of the La Quinta ship channel and under the Harbor Bridge to the Chemical Turning Basin, will allow bigger tanker ships to dock at the Sunoco crude export terminal, and is expected to be complete by May 2025, Port of Corpus Christi Authority (POCCA) chief executive Kent Britton told the summit today. Current draft restrictions limit Inner Harbor traffic to smaller Aframax vessels, which can carry about 700,000 bl. A deeper draft will allow for Suezmax vessels to load to their full 1mn bl capacity at the Sunoco terminal. By Chris Baltimore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs


07/02/25
07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: P66 eyes US northeast renewables: Update


07/02/25
07/02/25

Crude Summit: P66 eyes US northeast renewables: Update

Adds info on SAF, other details. Houston, 7 February (Argus) — US refiner Philips 66 is weighing producing renewable fuels in the northeastern US if more states adopt low carbon fuel standards. The company is considering producing renewables at its 258,500 b/d Bayway refinery in Linden, New Jersey, if state mandates are approved and implemented, vice president of renewables Suresh Vaidyanathan said on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, on Friday. The renewables could be processed along with traditional fuels at the refinery. Bayway is the largest refinery on the US Atlantic coast. Phillips 66 could possibly produce renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the refinery, depending on the specifics of the state laws, Vaidyanathan said. The company said it is "constantly evaluating all of our assets for lower carbon opportunities." New Jersey senators last year proposed legislation to establish what could be the first US east coast clean fuels mandate. In New York, bills to establish a clean fuel standard now count the majority of the state assembly and senate as co-sponsors. But similar proposals have stalled in prior years, in part because some progressive lawmakers worry about potentially boosting biofuels at the expense of electrification. New York state agencies are separately studying the potential impacts of a "clean transportation standard" but have given no indication of when they could release their findings. Phillips 66's Rodeo renewables plant in California reported throughputs of 42,000 b/d in the fourth quarter of 2024 after beginning full operations last year. Phillips 66 said today it is producing SAF at the Rodeo refinery. United Airlines announced in December that it agreed to buy SAF from Phillips 66's Rodeo facility as soon as the product came online. Phillips 66's renewable fuels business logged a $28mn profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 driven by higher margins at the Rodeo complex and stronger international results. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump


07/02/25
07/02/25

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump

Pittsburgh, 7 February (Argus) — US President Donald Trump said today Nippon Steel has agreed to invest in US Steel instead of buying the company outright. "Nissan is going to be doing something very exciting about US Steel. They'll be looking at an investment rather than a purchase," Trump said today at a news conference in Washington with Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump likely mistakenly referred to Tokyo-based Nippon Steel by the name of the Japanese car company. Although the White House did not immediately respond to a request for clarification, Nissan confirmed to Argus that it does not have plans to invest in US Steel. Trump's predecessor Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel's proposed $15bn takeover bid of Pittsburgh-based US Steel last month, citing national security concerns. Both men were adamant on the campaign trail that US Steel should not be owned by a foreign company. "We didn't want to see [US Steel] leave. It wouldn't actually leave. But the concept psychologically — not good," Trump said. Nippon Steel will provide technology to make steel in the US in a mutually beneficial deal, Ishiba said about the proposal. Trump said he would soon meet with Nippon Steel to work out the details of the investment. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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