Viewpoint: US ethane to be oversupplied for 2025

Spanish Market: LPG
24/12/24

US ethane production growth will likely continue to outpace exports and domestic demand into the first half of 2025, keeping US inventories of the natural gas liquid in record territory until export capacity expands late next year.

Ethane, which is widely used for ethylene production at US steam crackers, has emerged as the lowest-cost petrochemical feedstock worldwide, spurring infrastructure investments in Asia, particularly China, to receive US ethane exports.

Still, US ethane production from gas processing continues to outpace the country's ability to ship it into demand centers in Europe, India and China.

Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane spot prices fell relative to natural gas in 2024 due to record ethane production, leaving ethane stocks oversupplied entering 2025.

EPC ethane's premium to its fuel value in Nymex natural gas at the Henry Hub averaged 3.25¢/USG during 2024, 54pc lower than in 2023. It also averaged a 1.75¢/USG premium to its fuel content in the second half of 2024, 77.5pc lower than the same period last year, as spot ethane prices fell on ample supplies.

Cheaper natural gas in the Permian basin spurred higher rates of ethane recovery from the natural gas stream and led to a disproportionate rise in ethane production.Spot prices for natural gas at the Waha hub in west Texas across the year averaged -$0.10/mmBtu, with prices remaining negative for eight of nine months from March-November. Prices were consistently positive in 2023, averaging $1.66/mmBtu across the year. Negative Permian gas prices allow ethane recovery from the gas stream at a much lower cost.

US natural gas production in 2024 is poised to be steady to slightly down, having averaged 3.14tcf in monthly production from January to September, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Meanwhile, ethane production is set to reach a record high for the 11th consecutive year, with monthly production averaging 2.78mn b/d over the same period, up from a 2.65mn b/d average over the whole of 2023.

Waha gas prices turned positive in the second half of November and spiked to a multi-month high of $2.56/mmBtu on 2 December, pushing ethane prices to a 13-month high of 25.625¢/USG the following day as downstream buyers bid higher to fulfill contracts for the month. Ethane's rally was brief, however, with Mont Belvieu prices falling to 22.5¢/USG over the next week even as Waha climbed further.

Record ethane inventories

Ethane inventories hit record highs in 2024, according to EIA data, including a peak of 80.89mn bl in July, 79.5mn bl in August and 77.23mn bl in September.

Mont Belvieu ethane has also been in backwardation in December, with January prices at a 2-4c discount to prompt December prices, encouraging selling interest.

Sustained cold weather and additional surges in natural gas spot prices may further draw down ethane supplies as higher volumes are rejected into the gas stream, market participants suggest, but as it stands, ethane supplies are likely to remains at or near record highs for the first part of the new year. In the EIA's most recent Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the agency projects ethane inventories to end 2024 at 74.1mn bl, which would be a year-end record following a seasonal draw down,and 12.6pc higher than a year earlier.

In that same report, including projections for the fourth quarter, domestic consumption of ethane is estimated to be 2.26mn b/d in 2024, up by about 98,000 b/d on the year, and net exports are estimated at 483,000 b/d, up by around 13,000 b/d, whereas production of ethane from natural gas processing is expected to be 113,000 b/d higher at 2.77mn b/d.

Playing catch-up

If projections are accurate, 2024's record end-of-year ethane supply will exceed the peak previously set in 2020 of 69.6mn bl, based on EIA data. The first VLEC loadings at Energy Transfer's 180,000 b/d Nederland, Texas, export terminal began in January of 2021, resulting in year-end inventories reaching a relative trough in 2022 at 53.55mn bl before rebounding by nearly 50pc in the last two years.

Domestic ethane consumption growth has kept pace with or fallen behind growth in production since 2020. Conversely, ethane exports in 2021 jumped by 98,000 b/d to 369,000 b/d on the opening of the Nederland terminal and grew more slowly in 2022 and 2023.

Exports of US ethane are limited by infrastructure at receiving terminals abroad and the specialized vessels required to ship the lighter feedstock. Overseas markets are gearing up to take ethane imports over the next few years, and US ethane inventories are likely to continue building ahead of of an expansion to domestic export infrastructure as US production grows further.

Enterprise's Neches River export terminal in Beaumont, Texas, is the next scheduled US expansion and is set to complete its first phase in the third quarter of 2025, adding 120,000 b/d of ethane export capacity. Completion of the second phase in the first half of 2026 would take this capacity to a total of 180,000 b/d. The project, if it remains on track, should curtail ethane inventory growth at the back end of 2025.

Until then, abundant supply probably will continue to weigh on spot prices, and the first half of 2025 may see ethane prices fall further, both outright and relative to natural gas, especially since the EIA's outlook also forecasts gas prices to rise through the winter.

By Joseph Barbour

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

13/02/25

Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products

Dubai, 13 February (Argus) — Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders because shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there in case they are detained, traders say. Syria's transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mn bl of crude, 80,000t of 90 Ron gasoline and 100,000t each of fuel oil and gasoil last month — the first since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December last year. The tenders closed earlier this month after minimal participation from trading firms and were mostly awarded to local companies which will effectively act as intermediaries, market participants said. Market participants have hinted to Argus that small and medium-sized Turkish firms were likely on the list of bidders . But the delivery of the cargoes is under threat, with shipping companies avoiding the route over concerns about tankers being "sanctioned or stranded". Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which could have narrowed the pool for bidding, although EU foreign ministers have agreed on a roadmap to ease restrictions. The bidding pool was also limited by a clause in the tender document that noted "the seller should not have any direct or indirect trade relations with any country that is in war with Syria", a market source said, adding that this could have discouraged some companies from taking part. Before Assad's removal, Syria relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. But Tehran — the Assad regime's closest ally — ceased shipments after the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took control last month, leaving the new transitional government under pressure to find alternative suppliers. Neighbouring Arab countries are stepping in to help the new government deal with acute fuel shortages. State-owned Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company has begun exporting around 500 t/d of LPG to Syria. The ministry also issued two LPG import tenders seeking a total of 86,000t, but the winner has not been confirmed By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

11/02/25

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

London, 11 February (Argus) — Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, central France, is halted from 10-20 February as part of a wider shutdown affecting the refinery's crude distillation unit (CDU) and reformer. Workers at the plant said last week there had been unexpectedly extended CDU works caused by a blockage by unspecified debris . TotalEnergies said at the time it would not comment on operations. Officials at the company confirmed today the CDU and reformer were among units shut at Feyzin, but said the halt was planned. They said the CDU had suffered no unexpected blockage or damage. Workers reiterated today that debris had been detected in the CDU and that this could result in a shutdown lasting weeks. Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said today that the bitumen halt would cause no supply disruptions in terms of the usual truck movements, with sufficient stocks held at the plant to meet current low-level requirements during the winter slow activity period in the road paving and other construction sectors. By Fenella Rhodes and Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

10/02/25

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices. This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target

06/02/25

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target

Sydney, 6 February (Argus) — Australian independent Beach Energy has narrowed its oil and gas output guidance for the year to 30 June 2025, given delays in bringing the Western Australian (WA) 250 TJ/d Waitsia gas plant on line. Beach will produce 18.5mn-20.5mn bl of oil equivalent/d (boe/d) in 2024-25, it said in its half-year results to 31 December. It revised the top end of its previous forecast of 17.5mn-21.5mn boe down because of delays at Waitsia, which is operated by joint venture partner Japanese trading house Mitsui. Beach has maintained its guidance for first sales gas at Waitsia in April-June. The Adelaide-based firm last month reported its output at 10.2mn boe in July-December 2024, 15pc higher on the year, leading Beach to raise the bottom end of its guidance. The five Waitsia LNG swap cargoes that Beach has executed to date have brought forward revenue for the firm, which reported A$139mn ($87.1mn) from the two shipped in July-December 2024. A fifth cargo was lifted from Australian independent Woodside Energy's 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG terminal in January, while a possible sixth may occur before the end of June. "We have opportunities for additional swaps in the market and we're looking very closely… I'm hoping to get another [cargo] out before the half-year," chief executive Brett Woods said on 6 February. About 35pc of the gas exported via swap cargoes to date were from Beach's own 20 TJ/d (534,000 m³/d) Xyris gas plant, meaning it will not need to be swapped back, Woods said. Beach expects 8-10 cargoes/yr of Waitsia gas to be shipped until 2028, with scope to further extend the project's LNG exports following the WA government's changes to onshore gas export rules. Waitsia partners hold a gas processing agreement with the NWS JV running until the end of 2028. Beach will start its Offshore Gas Victoria programme in 2025 as part of its ambition to become a major domestic gas supplier. This includes drilling the Hercules gas prospect in Victoria state's offshore Otway basin in April-June, described as a "large scale opportunity" with prospective reserves of 100bn ft³ (280mn m³). No change was made to Beach's 2024-25 capital expenditure guidance of A$700mn-$800mn. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s LPG use could contract after record 2024

04/02/25

India’s LPG use could contract after record 2024

Consumption is expected to fall as more households take up piped natural gas and LPG subsidies are unwound, writes Rituparna Ghosh Mumbai, 4 February (Argus) — India's LPG consumption may contract this year after reaching another record high in 2024 unless new demand centres for use as a clean cooking fuel emerge, budget documents show and industry officials say. Urban use of LPG as a cooking fuel in India is likely to be further eroded this year by the development of piped natural gas grids while rural sales could be affected if the government decides to remove subsidies. Households account for over 90pc of India's LPG demand. India's overall LPG consumption rose to a record high of 31mn t in 2024, up by 7pc on the year, according to oil ministry data, on the back of an election year that prompted several LPG incentives from the ruling BJP party. The government's target of adding 7.5mn more low-income households under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) subsidy scheme a year ahead of schedule also supported the growth. A total of 329mn households use LPG as of 1 January, government data show. India's LPG imports increased by 13pc to a new high of 21mn t in 2024 on growing consumption and flat production of about 12.8mn t. LPG use in urban areas is expected to contract as piped natural gas (PNG) becomes increasingly available, with household connections rising by 16pc to nearly 14mn last year, according to the oil ministry. PNG for households is subsidised by the government. Delhi expects the rural sector to drive demand growth as more users switch from harmful solid biomass fuels to LPG for cooking. But households that have switched fuel often return to cheaper firewood — a government survey shows that less than half of India's rural households use LPG for cooking, with the annual cylinder refill rate stagnating at three/yr since 2022. The government also plans to reduce LPG subsidies in its latest budget for 2025-26 beginning in April. Subsidies for low-income households will fall by 28pc to 91bn rupees ($1.04bn) in the next fiscal year from Rs127bn in 2024-25. India's overall LPG subsidy declines to Rs121bn from Rs147bn. The decline in subsidies will hurt LPG demand in price-sensitive areas — nearly 129mn people in India were living in extreme poverty in 2024, according to a World Bank report. No poll pull Elections are a major demand driver for LPG in India as federal and state governments often reduce rates or offer free refills during their campaigns. State-run refiners slashed 14.2kg cylinder prices by Rs100/cylinder in August last year to Rs803/cylinder ($9.20/cylinder) in Delhi, where they have remained since. LPG subsidies of Rs300/cylinder were also extended for low-income households, which is due to expire in March. Several state elections in late 2023 announced free cylinders, boosting demand for LPG throughout 2024. But the government may now look to wind down subsidies with no critical elections to contest in the near future, as it did after the 2019 election. Increasing government repayments due to state-run refiners for lowering prices may also force it to raise cylinder prices again, analysts say. The government made no provision in its budget proposal to compensate the refiners for losses incurred in selling domestic LPG to households at below cost. The losses accrued by refiners IOC, BPCL and HPCL from LPG sales during the April-December 2024 period are estimated to be around Rs285bn combined, according to their company reports. This would equate to Rs390bn for the entire fiscal year 2024-25. The oil ministry meanwhile forecasts India's LPG consumption to grow by 4.7pc on the year to 33mn t in 2025-26. India kept 14kg LPG cylinders at Rs803 in Delhi for a 10th consecutive month for January but cut commercial 19kg cylinder rates after five straight months of hikes by Rs14.50 to Rs1,804, according to state-run refiner IOC. India LPG fundamentals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more