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Viewpoint: Brazil urea deals for corn delayed to 2025

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Fertilizers
  • 27/12/24

Brazil is set to enter 2025 with a last-minute surge in demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, as farmers continue to postpone purchases for the 2024-25 second corn crop.

Around 10-15pc of all fertilizer needs have yet to be purchased for the corn crop, whose planting is expected to start by February in central-western Mato Grosso state.

Brazilian farmers have been delaying agreements for inputs as they wait for lower fertilizer prices and higher grain prices. The most delayed fertilizer acquisition is urea, with buyers expecting further price drops before committing to volumes. Granular urea prices were at $359/metric tonnes (t) cfr Brazil by 19 December, $39/t above the same period in 2023.

The overall pace of input purchases is in line with farmers' buying patterns for the 2023-24 corn crop and 2024-25 soybean crop, when growers also waited until the last minute to secure final volumes.

Traditional 4Q buying surged delayed

Brazilian buyers used to speed up the pace of fertilizer purchases in the fourth quarter to supply the second corn crop. This would give them time to receive the inputs in time for application, without last-minute logistic concerns.

But unexpected changes in fertilizer price trends, combined with changes in the timing of the soybean crop, led farmers to change this buying pattern and wait as long as possible before concluding deals.

Farmers' saw this last-minute buying strategy rewarded in early 2024 when urea prices were about $393/t cfr Brazil, below levels seen earlier in October 2023.

And a delay in the 2024-25 soybean planting because of unfavorable weather conditions also contributed to postponed fertilizer acquisitions for corn, since the soybean harvest would likely be delayed and force farmers to plant corn outside the ideal period.

Those factors are set to again push final urea purchases to January. Some volumes traded in November-December may discharge in ports in January, intensifying deliveries in the first months of the year.

Brazil imported 7.6mn t of urea in January-November, 19pc above the same period in 2023. The latest lineup data from 26 December points to around 400,000t to be delivered at ports in December and 422,000t in January, according to maritime agency Unimar.

Farmers focused on acquiring ammonium sulphate (amsul) volumes in the past three months, as prices carried a discount considering the nitrogen content compared with urea while also adding sulphur. There is plenty of available compacted/granular amsul, with Chinese producers eyeing Brazil as an outlet for the product.

Imports of amsul totaled 5.1mn t in the first 11 months of the year, 18pc above the same period last year. A total of 596,000t and 1.2mn t were set to discharge in ports in December and January, respectively, according to Unimar's lineup data from 26 December.

The trend is the same in the domestic market, with purchases advancing slowly. Some cooperatives and retailers bought volumes to guarantee availability when farmers decide to buy.

Farmers are most advanced in theirs potash (MOP) acquisitions, as its lower-than-usual price has motivated farmers to buy the fertilizer for 2025-26 corn and soybeans. Market participants estimate that around 50pc of MOP needs in Mato Grosso for the 2025-26 soybean crop were purchased by early December.

Demand has been high for the first quarter of 2025, leading to expectations of intense MOP deliveries at ports. This would mean a high flow in the inland market, competing with urea volumes handling in January-February.


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05/02/25

Australian beef exports hit record high in January

Australian beef exports hit record high in January

Dalby, 5 February (Argus) — Australian beef exports hit a record high in January, with volumes of chilled and frozen beef surpassing the previous high set in January 2020, the Australian Department of Agriculture said. Beef exports reached 81,049t in January 2025, a rise from 75,585t in January 2024 and slightly more than the previous high of 79,221t exported in January 2020. This comes on the back of strong exports in December 2024. Processors typically engage in capacity rebuilding in January after the Christmas holiday break for abattoir staff. Throughput is typically weighed down by weaker cattle availability across northern Australia over the monsoon season in November-April. But exports in January 2025 remained strong despite the challenges, with processing throughput reaching a high of 140,908 heads in the week to 24 January. Exporters took advantage of robust global prices and the availability of cattle because of dry conditions in southern Australia and a late wet season across Queensland and the Northern Territory. The majority of exports in January were sent to the US, accounting for 24,685t or 30pc of total global exports. This is a rise from the 20,308t the US imported in January 2024. Imports to the west coast ports of the US more than doubled compared with a year earlier, reaching 7,112t. Demand from the US was strong, particularly the demand for lean trim, as a result of a domestic production shortage caused by a declining cattle herd. This has pushed up prices for Australian lean trim, with prices for 85CL nearing A$9.50/kg and Bull 95CL surpassing A$10.50/kg, Argus data show. Demand and prices will likely remain steady throughout 2025 because the US cattle herd has yet to begin rebuilding, market participants said. Exports of chilled and frozen beef to Japan and Korea have slightly decreased on the year in January to 15,806t and 10,596t respectively, down by less than 10pc from a year earlier. Higher prices for fatty trim, coupled with weaker local economies, have weighed on Asian demand for Australian beef. But imports to China rose in January 2025 compared with a year earlier, with 15,315t shipped for the month after active buying in December. Exports to other countries including the EU, Canada, Thailand and Dubai also increased in January 2025 compared with a year earlier, on the back of record high volumes of beef production in Australia in 2024. By Amy Phillips Australian beef exports (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs not only US threat to Canada canola oil


04/02/25
04/02/25

Tariffs not only US threat to Canada canola oil

New York, 4 February (Argus) — Canadian canola farmers have reason to celebrate a last-minute deal to at least delay US tariffs. Changing US biofuel policies, however, could dim their excitement. The two countries agreed Monday to pause for a month 25pc tariffs on most Canadian imports, including agricultural products like canola oil. While best known for its use in food, canola oil has become an increasingly important ingredient in US biofuel production. Canada exported 800,000 lbs of crude canola oil to the US in 2021, before US regulators allowed more canola-based fuels to qualify for a biofuel mandate, but more than three times that total over just 11 months in 2024 according to customs data. Canola oil from all origins made up around 12pc of the US biomass-based diesel feedstock mix last year. The challenge for Canada is that policies in the US that helped cement canola oil's role in biofuel production are increasingly encouraging producers to use other feedstocks. The mere threat of tariffs could speed that trend along. A long-running US tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall. This shift was always expected to benefit waste feedstocks over crops, which incur a carbon penalty for land changes and fertilizer use. The clear message to refiners — both from the US government and from California regulators that run the state's influential low-carbon fuel standard — has been to diversify beyond vegetable oils. But an updated emissions model released by the Department of Energy last month surprised some in the industry by assessing the default carbon intensity of canola-based fuels as too high to automatically qualify for 45Z. Although fuels from soybean oil generally earn some credit, diesels made from canola oil could go from earning $1/USG last year to nothing this year. Before even factoring in potential tariffs, Canadian canola oil appears less attractive for refiners than even competing crops. Guidance on 45Z is preliminary , meaning canola crushers can push for final rules that are less restrictive. But energy lobbyists say privately that they do not expect the new administration to act with urgency to implement an incentive created by Democratic lawmakers and oriented around climate change. And many Republicans' concern with the credit is not that it is too harsh on canola — but that it is too permissive of foreign feedstocks they see as hurting US crop demand. The introduction of 45Z could simultaneously leave Canadian biofuel producers less able to backfill canola oil demand if US buyers look elsewhere. The credit can only be claimed by US producers, cutting off subsidies for imported fuels. At the same time, 45Z does not require fuel to be consumed stateside — meaning that US biorefineries can send subsidized fuel abroad to chase additional incentives Canada offers for biofuel usage. "The on-again off-again status of US tariffs and Canada's counter-tariff response do not alter the bare economics of biofuel production between jurisdictions when one has an exportable tax credit and the other does not," said Fred Ghatala, president of Advanced Biofuels Canada. The future of renewable diesel production in Canada, previously expected to grow significantly to the benefit of farmers, is in doubt. ExxonMobil's Canadian subsidiary is on track to open a 20,000 b/d renewable diesel plant this year, but other companies collectively representing more production capacity are wavering. Plans for an integrated canola crush and 15,000 b/d renewable diesel facility in Saskatchewan were paused last month. And it is unclear if Braya Renewable Fuels' 18,000 b/d biorefinery in Newfoundland is running now or if Tidewater Renewables' 3,000 b/d British Columbia plant will run after March. If demand from Canadian biorefineries remains limited, some traders expect that Trump's tariff threats could divert more canola oil previously bound for the US to Europe . But there is no perfect alternative to the US market, which accounted for 91pc of all Canadian canola oil exports in 2023 according to the US Department of Agriculture. "There is logistics capacity to sell canola oil, seed, or meal abroad. That's certainly an option," said Chris Vervaet, executive director of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. "The best option though is to continue to maintain and grow our trade relationship with our most important trade partner, which is the United States." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over sulphur price in February


04/02/25
04/02/25

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over sulphur price in February

London, 4 February (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc set its February official sulphur selling price (OSP) for the Indian subcontinent at $174/t fob Ruwais, stable from its January OSP. Adnoc's February OSP implies a delivered price of $190-191/t cfr India, with the freight cost for a 40,000-45,000t shipment to the east coast of India last assessed at $16-17/t on 30 January. The announced OSP fob price rose by $105/t from $69/t fob Ruwais in February 2024. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

No Trump tariff exemption on Canadian potash: Update


03/02/25
03/02/25

No Trump tariff exemption on Canadian potash: Update

Updates with 1 month delay on tariffs. London, 3 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump will allow a one month pause before imposing a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports — including potash — from Canada. Trump signed executive orders on 1 February that will impose the levy on all US imports from Canada, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff. Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. US fertilizer industry association The Fertilizer Institute said last week that there was not enough certainty as to whether or not the tariffs would be implemented, but if enacted would be counter to Trump's promise during his election campaign to lower grocery prices. Following the issuing of the executive order, TFI said it is ready to collaborate with the Trump administration to spur fertilizer industry growth. The US has limited domestic MOP production and over 80pc of its potash needs are sourced from Canada, around 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP should only further limit supply options. What does this mean for the US potash market? The tariff will no doubt raise prices in the US. MOP prices at New Orleans (Nola) and across the Corn Belt have already edged higher in recent weeks because of concerns related to potential tariffs. Nutrien increased its post-winter fill potash offers on 28 January by $25/st to $340/st fot across US midcontinent warehouses, while river terminals rose to $335/st fob. Granular MOP fob Nola values have also risen, from $255/st at the start of the year to $265/st on 30 January, compared with $322.50/st fob in January 2024. Argus calculates that the tariff will add an average premium of around $60/t at the US-Canada border but it is uncertain how much of this cost will be passed onto the buyer, or how much will be swallowed by the producer. Regardless, the higher cost of Canadian potash will likely significantly reduce the volume purchased from Canada and push US buyers to turn to alternative suppliers, which may be cheaper. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 9mn-10mn t/yr of potash that the country needs. Prices for imported MOP may also benefit from an uptick in the price of Canadian potash, as other suppliers may raise prices to narrow the premium that Canada holds, while ensuring that they still remain competitive. For the upcoming spring application season in the US, there is likely to be limited effect as domestic supply is robust and suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but whether the tariff will still be in place when fall demand is anticipated is difficult to predict. How will this affect Canadian exports? If the US takes less potash from Canada, the country will have no option but to push more volume for offshore exports. Canada exports around 22mn t/yr of MOP, the bulk of which is handled by Canpotex, which markets product from Nutrien and Mosaic. Germany-based K+S also exports MOP from its Bethune mine in Saskatchewan. Canada typically exports around 11mn-12.5mn t/yr of MOP via Vancouver on the west coast, and Thunder Bay and Saint John's on the east coast. The maximum volume exported from these three ports in a year is around 14mn-15mn t. Another 3mn t can be moved via Portland in the US, which will be unaffected by the tariffs. But the Canadian rail system has reduced capacity to switch to ports and the export infrastructure will likely see bottlenecks, especially as all commodities will be affected, not just potash, which means that all products will be seeking alternative markets other than the US, and the only other option is to export. Higher pricing in the US could entice other suppliers to bring more to the US, diverting product away from key market Brazil. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium. But most imports into the US come through Nola, which is far from the main MOP consuming regions further north in the Corn Belt. It is clear that the US needs Canadian potash to meet typical US application levels, and that Canada needs the US as an outlet. There remains uncertainty over how long these tariffs will last and under what conditions they might be lifted. Although there appears to be a case for potash to receive an exemption from the executive order, nothing has been said to this effect by the Trump administration. In response to Trump's tariff executive order, the Canadian government announced its own 25pc tariff on more than $100bn of US imports. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Canada MOP exports to US ’000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US soy crush falls behind export demand in December


03/02/25
03/02/25

US soy crush falls behind export demand in December

St Louis, 3 February (Argus) — Increased export demand for soybean meal and soybean oil pulled stocks below year ago levels in December despite record soybean crush over the month, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. US soybean crush reached a record-setting 5.92mn t in December, up by 6pc over the prior year. US soybean meal production gained 7pc over the prior year, reaching 4.38mnt, while crude soybean oil production gained 8pc to reach 1.17mn t. While soybean meal production increased by 7pc, December use gained 12pc over the prior year to reach 4.42mn t. US soybean meal use has, in part, been driven higher by increased export demand. Current USDA projections place US soybean meal exports at 15.79mn t for the 2024-25 marketing year, up by 8pc from the prior year. So far, export sales data indicates this level is likely to be reached, with 9.21mn t sold for export through 23 January of the marketing year, 11pc above the same interval of the 2023-24 marketing year. With soybean meal use exceeding production over the month of December, stock levels declined counter seasonally to 380,000t, dropping stock-to-use ratios two percentage points from year ago levels. Crude soybean oil use also gained over the prior year, up 13pc, to reach 1.14mn t. Both refining and non-refining uses for crude soybean oil remained above year ago levels over December. Refined soybean oil production increased 11pc from the prior year, reaching 870,000t. Non-refining use gained 19pc over the prior year to reach 250,000t. As with soybean meal, use has been driven higher over the 2024-25 marketing year by much higher export demand. Through 23 January, export sales of US soybean oil reached 672,000t, a nearly twenty-fold increase over the same period of the 2023-24 marketing year. As a result, crude soybean oil stock levels dipped 14pc from the prior year to their lowest level or record, down to 540,000t, pulling the stock-to-use ratio down 14 percentage points to 48pc. By Ryan Koory US soybean crush and products Dec Chg from Nov Chg from Prior year Soybeans ( mn t ) Soybeans crushed 5.92 0.21 0.37 Soybean meal ( mn t ) Produced 4.38 0.15 0.29 Use 4.42 0.34 0.51 Ending stocks 0.38 -0.04 -0.03 Stocks to use 8pc -2pcp -2pcp Crude soybean oil ( mn t ) Produced 1.17 0.04 0.09 Use 1.14 0.02 0.15 Refined 0.89 0.05 0.10 Non-refining 0.25 -0.03 0.05 Ending stocks 0.54 0.03 -0.07 Stocks to use 48pc 2pcp -14pcp Refined soybean oil ( mn t ) Produced 0.87 0.04 0.09 Use 0.86 0.05 0.10 Ending stocks 0.23 0.01 0.02 Stocks to use 26pc -1pcp -2pcp — USDA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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