Mexico inflation ends 2024 near 4-year low

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Electricity, LPG, Natural gas
09/01/25

Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 4.21pc in December, the lowest in nearly four years, as slowing agricultural prices offset increases in energy, consumer goods and services.

This marks the lowest annual inflation since February 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. Inflation slowed from 4.55pc in November, marking four months of declines in the past five months. It closed 2024 below the December 2023 reading of 4.66pc, as CPI continues to cool from its peak of 8.7pc in August/September 2022at the height of the global inflation crisis.

The December headline rate slightly exceeded Mexican bank Banorte's 4.15pc forecast but aligned with its consensus estimate. Following the results, Banorte revised its end-2025 inflation projection to 4pc from 4.4pc and its core inflation estimate to 3.6pc from 3.7pc.

The bank suggested that the data supports the possibility of earlier cuts in 2025 in the central bank's target rate, currently at 10pc. Citi Mexico's January survey of 32 analysts estimated a target rate of 8.50pc by the end of 2025, with the next cut of 25 basis points expected at the next central bank policy meeting on 25 February. The central bank is targeting annual CPI of 2-4pc.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.65pc in December from 3.58pc in November, marking the first uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration, according to Mexico's statistics agency (Inegi). Services inflation sped up to 4.94pc from 4.9pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.47pc from 2.4pc.

Agricultural inflation moved to 6.57pc from 10.74pc in November, supported by favorable weather conditions. Banorte noted that the developing La Nina phenomenon could significantly impact meat prices in the coming months.

Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 5.73pc in December from 5.25pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. The industrial association Coparmex called for a review of Mexico's LPG pricing model, citing risks to supply and distribution.

Electricity inflation decelerated sharply to 2.65pc from 22pc in November, reflecting the end of seasonal summer subsidies, while natural gas prices fell 5.67pc year over year.

By James Young

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13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump. Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures. The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said. The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said. Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down." The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

13/02/25

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. Trump's trade advisers previously cited Brazil's tariff on US-sourced ethanol, which is higher than the US customs duty on ethanol, as an example of the disparity they would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. Trump's directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. The intent of the order is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, the Trump administration is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. "Last year, US-based companies paid foreign governments $370bn in taxes," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said today. "Meanwhile, foreign companies paid the US $57bn in taxes. Are we supposed to keep doing that because of some economic model that doesn't have the whole real world in it?" The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. He set a deadline of 1 April for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods" — a review that likely will result in additional tariffs later this year against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US wholesale inflation holds near 2-year high in Jan

13/02/25

US wholesale inflation holds near 2-year high in Jan

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Prices paid to US producers in January held at nearly a two-year high, another sign of mounting inflation pressures that may keep the Federal Reserve from lowering rates for longer. Prices paid to producers (PPI) rose by 3.5pc in January from a year earlier, matching the prior month's gain, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a gain of 3.2pc. The PPI number follows a higher-than-expected consumer price reading Wednesday which together reinforce the message that the Federal Reserve may hold off longer on rate cuts, especially in the face of potentially inflationary trade conflicts and migrant roundups under the new US administration. PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose by 3.4pc in January following a 3.5pc gain in December. PPI for services rose by 4.1pc in January following a 4pc gain in December. Wholesale prices for energy were flat following a 2pc annual decline the prior month. PPI for goods rose by 2.3pc in January following a 1.8pc gain in December On a monthly basis, headline PPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4pc, compared with a 0.5pc gain in December and a 0.2pc increase in November. Services PPI rose by 0.3pc in December, following a monthly gain of 0.5pc in December and a 0.1pc gain in November. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF

13/02/25

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's impending tariffs on Canadian crude would cause US midcontinent refineries to cut throughputs, even if they find alternative crudes, US independent refiner PBF Energy said today. The tariffs would cause a sizable disruption and "have some impact on throughput," chief executive Matthew Lucey said on an earnings call. Switching to alternative crudes would lead to lower yields of gasoline, diesel and other fuels because refineries are optimized around a certain type of crude, he said. Lucey described the US-Canada tariff situation as a "standoff" because US refiners need Canadian crude to maintain throughput while Canada needs the US market to avoid production cuts. "If they don't sell it to the US, it's going to stay in the ground," he said. PBF operates a 173,000 b/d refinery in Toledo, Ohio, which runs a significant slate of synthetic crude out of Canada. The US will impose a 10pc tariff on energy from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico starting on 4 March, after Trump delayed the tariff by a month. US refiners' runs of Canadian crude averaged about 4mn b/d over the past year, or about 22pc of total US throughputs, according to US investment bank Tudor Pickering. Most of that crude feeds large midcontinent facilities. The region as a whole consumes about 70pc of US crude imports from Canada, with the balance going to the US Gulf coast. US refiners who rely on Canadian crude imports are seeking alternative sources. US refiner Marathon Petroleum said last week it could run some domestic crudes in its midcontinent refineries, including crude from the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Montana, to replace Canadian imports. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products

13/02/25

Sanctions complicate Syria’s access to crude, products

Dubai, 13 February (Argus) — Syria is struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders because shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there in case they are detained, traders say. Syria's transitional government issued tenders seeking 4.2mn bl of crude, 80,000t of 90 Ron gasoline and 100,000t each of fuel oil and gasoil last month — the first since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December last year. The tenders closed earlier this month after minimal participation from trading firms and were mostly awarded to local companies which will effectively act as intermediaries, market participants said. Market participants have hinted to Argus that small and medium-sized Turkish firms were likely on the list of bidders . But the delivery of the cargoes is under threat, with shipping companies avoiding the route over concerns about tankers being "sanctioned or stranded". Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which could have narrowed the pool for bidding, although EU foreign ministers have agreed on a roadmap to ease restrictions. The bidding pool was also limited by a clause in the tender document that noted "the seller should not have any direct or indirect trade relations with any country that is in war with Syria", a market source said, adding that this could have discouraged some companies from taking part. Before Assad's removal, Syria relied heavily on Iran for crude and product supplies. But Tehran — the Assad regime's closest ally — ceased shipments after the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham took control last month, leaving the new transitional government under pressure to find alternative suppliers. Neighbouring Arab countries are stepping in to help the new government deal with acute fuel shortages. State-owned Jordan Petroleum Refinery Company has begun exporting around 500 t/d of LPG to Syria. The ministry also issued two LPG import tenders seeking a total of 86,000t, but the winner has not been confirmed By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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