Brazil taps diplomat as Cop 30 president: Update

Spanish Market: Emissions
21/01/25

Adds comments on US leaving Paris climate agreement.

Brazil chose veteran diplomat Andre Aranha Correa do Lago to preside over the UN Cop 30 climate summit, it said.

Correa do Lago's appointment breaks the mold of the latest Cop presidents. The last two Cop presidents — Mukhtar Babayev and Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who presided over Cop 29 and 28, respectively — were experienced oil executives, while Correa do Lago has mostly been a diplomat and an advocate of sustainable development.

Correa do Lago has served as the Brazilian foreign affairs ministry's climate, energy and environment secretary since March 2023 and began his career as a diplomat in 1982. He previously served in the embassies in Madrid, Prague, Washington and Buenos Aires and in a mission to the EU in Brussels. Later, Correa do Lago was ambassador to Japan (2013-2018), India (2018-2023) and Bhutan (2019-2023).

He has been working on sustainable development topics since 2001, according to the Brazilian government. He was director of the energy division of the foreign affairs' ministry from 2008-2011 and headed the ministry's environmental division from 2011-2013. He also served as Brazil's chief negotiator for climate change from 2011-2013 and presided over the 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro, also known as Rio+20.

Brazil also tapped economist Ana Toni, the energy ministry's secretary for climate change since March 2023, as Cop 30's executive director. She holds a PhD in political science and focused her career on promoting projects and public policies regarding social justice, the environment and climate change. Toni was executive director of the climate and society institute from 2015-2022, president of Greenpeace's board from 2010-2017 and the director of the Ford Foundation in Brazil from 2003-2011.

Brazil will host Cop 30 in Belem, the capital of northern Para state, in November. The city was chosen because of its proximity to the Amazon rainforest.

Trump factor

After the Cop 30 announcement, Correa do Lago spoke about US president Donald Trump's decision to pull the US from the Paris Climate agreement.

"We are all still analyzing president Trump's decisions, but there is no doubt that it will have a significant impact on the preparations for Cop 30," he said, adding that the summit will have to deal with "such an important country" withdrawing from the agreement.

But the US remains a member of the climate convention, so "several channels remain open," he said.

Correa do Lago also said that he does not know whether there will be talks related to Trump's attendance at Cop 30.

By Lucas Parolin

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07/02/25

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ecuador vows to cut GHG emissions by 7pc in 2035

07/02/25

Ecuador vows to cut GHG emissions by 7pc in 2035

Quito, 7 February (Argus) — Ecuador committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 7pc by 2035 compared with the baseline projected emissions for that year, it said in its second Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) this week. The reduction is the equivalent to 8.8mn metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Ecuador emitted 88.3mn t of CO2e in 2022 mainly from the energy sector (47pc), including transportation and power generation; land use (29pc); agriculture (13pc); waste management (6pc) and industrial processes (5pc). If the current trend projected since 2010 continues without any actions, Ecuador's annual emissions will reach almost 130mn t of CO2e in 2035. But by applying mitigation measures such as more renewable energies, sustainable methods of production and mobility, with domestic funding, the emissions will be reduced to about 121.2mn t of CO2e, for a 7pc cut. With more financial support from the international community, Ecuador aims to reduce its GHG emissions by another 8 percentage points. That would cut another 10.6mn t of CO2e, for a total reduction of 15pc and emissions of 110mn t of CO2e in 2035. The mitigation measures will cost Ecuador about $6.5bn. In 2019, Ecuador launched its first NDC and set the goal to reduce GHG emissions by 9pc annually from 2020-2025. But it missed the goal, mainly because the 2020 pandemic generated an economic crisis that cut funds to implement mitigation measures. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia’s Orica mulls selling safeguard carbon units

07/02/25

Australia’s Orica mulls selling safeguard carbon units

Sydney, 7 February (Argus) — Australian chemicals and explosives firm Orica is eligible to receive safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs) for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year and is now considering options for the units, including potential sale to a third party, it told Argus . Orica did not disclose how many SMCs it was eligible to receive or whether the units have already been issued. It has two facilities under the scheme — Kooragang Island in New South Wales (NSW) and Yarwun Nitrates near the Queensland state city of Gladstone. SMCs are issued if a facility reports scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below its baseline. Orica said in November that it did not expect a requirement to surrender Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year. It still does not expect such a requirement, it told Argus on 6 February. Both the company's facilities are registered as carbon projects, and Orica received a total of nearly 600,000 ACCUs from the Kooragang Island decarbonisation project last year . The credits are generated as a result of tertiary emissions abatement reactors installed across three nitric acid plants at the facility, which includes ammonia and ammonium nitrate plants. "In line with Orica's carbon market strategy, we anticipate holding originated ACCUs for future safeguard mechanism compliance obligations," the company told Argus on 6 February. SMC data expected for early March The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) earlier this week said it issued the first ever SMCs into eligible accounts in the new registry that will replace the Australian National Registry of Emissions Units (ANREU). It did not say how many SMCs have been issued so far but noted that further issuances are likely this month. "The CER will publish the 2023-24 safeguard data, including facility-level information about SMC issuances, by 15 April 2025," it told Argus on 7 February. "The CER will also start to include SMC observations in its quarterly carbon market reports." The quarterly report for the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be published in early March, the regulator added. The main data for that period was published in late January, showing ACCU supply and demand at new highs . Market participants said no SMC trades had been seen so far, although some companies have been exploring potential sales. Now that the first SMCs have been issued, account holders with SMCs in their accounts are already able to transfer the units between accounts, the CER noted. Australia's Climate Change Authority (CCA) said late last year that 60 out of 215 facilities covered by the safeguard mechanism reported scope 1 GHG emissions below their baselines and could be eligible to apply for a total estimated 9.2mn SMCs , far higher than previously estimated, impacting market sentiment for ACCUs. Spot prices for generic ACCUs ended the week below A$35 ($22), down slightly on the week and compared to levels close to A$43 in mid-November. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU red tape ‘unsustainable burden’ for transition

06/02/25

EU red tape ‘unsustainable burden’ for transition

London, 6 February (Argus) — EU regulations in their current form are hindering rather than enabling the energy transition, limiting access to funding and slowing renewable installations, delegates at the Financial Times International Energy Policy Forum in Brussels heard this week. EU regulation has become "duplicative", Anthony Gooch Galvez, secretary general of the European Round Table for Industry (ERT), told delegates this week. "The burden is unsustainable" even for ERT members, which tend to be big companies, he said, pointing to the additional problems this would cause small to medium-sized businesses. The EU is "too prescriptive" and expects perfection from day one, Ann Mettler of Bill Gates-founded Breakthrough Energy said, leading to low-carbon technologies not being deployed. The "regulatory tsunami did not lead to the desired outcome", and the bloc should give more space to the private sector to support their development, she said. A lack of policy planning has contributed to the problem, Mettler said, pointing to the low number of final investment decisions that have been taken on hydrogen projects. Companies need to be able to implement their plans, she said. "Very cumbersome licensing and permitting processes" are also impeding progress in the region, IEA executive director Fatih Birol told delegates, calling for these to become "much more nimble". And while funding is technically on the table, it is often difficult to access, Gwenaelle Avice Huet of French firm Schneider Electric said, of which the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility is a prime example. "It's not just about the level of money available." US presents opportunity But the stability of the EU's Green Deal, which was announced in 2021 and remains in place, does offer a stark contrast to the US, said Sebastien Treyer, executive director of think-tank the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. Other speakers also noted the importance of stability and predictability within regulatory frameworks. "You need to have rules to play a good game", Galvez said. In the US, policy has fluctuated wildly between regimes, with president Donald Trump pausing some funding from the country's Inflation Reduction Act in the first days of his new term. This shift could mean US-based investors in the transition look to the EU for opportunities, said Marcin Korolec, president of the Green Economy Institute. "The federal government is not the whole of America. Many other economic players are still very willing to collaborate," Treyer agreed. But a lack of urgency from the European Commission could see the EU fail to capitalise on this, Korolec warned. He criticised in particular the bloc's planned competitiveness fund, announced last week, which would be funded under the EU's next budget starting in 2028, towards the end of Trump's term. "Sitting in a chair for three years waiting is absurd," he said. By Victoria Hatherick and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ambition focus as nations to fail new GHG goal deadline

06/02/25

Ambition focus as nations to fail new GHG goal deadline

Edinburgh, 6 February (Argus) — Most countries and major emitters that are party to the Paris Agreement will fail to meet a 10 February deadline for sharing new climate plans. Climate policy observers have stressed that higher ambitions beat timeliness when it comes to new 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions cut targets, but challenges abound ahead of the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil. Only 10 countries, including G20 members Brazil and the UK, have submitted new climate plans — or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — so far. Around 200 countries and jurisdictions such as the EU have signed the Paris agreement. They need to submit their 2035 targets to the UN climate body UNFCCC by February as part of the so-called ratchet mechanism, which requires them to review and revise plans every five years. "There have not been any signals that any major emitters will submit their NDCs before the deadline, but we may see a handful of smaller emitters trickling in," think-tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) energy policy advisor Natalie Jones said. Non-profit the World Resources Institute (WRI) associate Jamal Srouji expects around 20 countries to submit by the deadline. But most climate plans should come in the second half of this year, with the UN general assembly in September emerging as a new potential milestone followed by Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil. Countries missing their NDC deadline is not new. They were slow to submit plans in the previous 2020-21 round — although they were grappling with a pandemic — and after Cop 26, when it came to strengthening 2030 targets. Jones described the UNFCCC's non-enforceable February deadline as "arbitrary". "It is much more important to have good quality plans than NDCs handed in on a forced deadline, although of course there is no guarantee that the plans that will come later will be necessarily better," Jones said. Srouji concurred: "Higher ambitions from major countries are far more critical because we know that we are off track for meeting the Paris goals". US exit The US submitted its new NDC in December under then president Joe Biden, knowing that the new president Donald Trump would pull out of the Paris accord again. This will take effect on 27 January next year. It was important for the US to submit this NDC, Srouji said, as it will serve as "a guiding post" for what the country could achieve, at sub-national levels in particular. But the US' Paris exit could dampen momentum on global NDCs, with some fearing a spillover effect . Indonesia, which earlier signalled it would submit by February, is unlikely to do so now, after the country's climate envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo expressed discontent. "If America does not want to comply with international agreements, why should Indonesia comply?" he asked. Argentina pulled its delegation from Cop 29 last year and may consider leaving the Paris agreement. Among other major emitters, Canada set a new 2035 climate goal in December. The country was planning to submit its new plan by February, but the resignation of prime minister Justin Trudeau and a new election due this year could put the country's climate ambitions at risk. All eyes will of course be on China, the world's largest emitter, and whether it pledges stronger targets. The country is unlikely to submit its new plan by the deadline, according to observers. Expectations are high, but "targets will likely fall short of achieving the 1.5°C goal, leaving much work to be done to accelerate emissions reduction," think tank Asia Society Policy Institute director Li Shuo said. China signalled at Cop 29 that its NDC will be "economy-wide" and "cover all greenhouse gases", while continuing to strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, without providing further details. "There is a big question mark, in the absence of US leadership, if will we see China along with the EU engaging and stepping up, or if will we see the country retreating like the US," IISD's Jones said. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who said the bloc's NDC will come in time for Cop 30, said that Europeans will need to show more leadership. But the EU's 2035 goal will be derived from its 2040 target and German MEP Peter Liese pointed to a deadlock in discussions . The European Commission has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target of 90pc by 2040, from 1990 levels, which Poland said is "very difficult to accept". Challenges Cop 30 host Brazil, along with the UAE Cop 29 presidency, stuck to their promise of being early movers by submitting updated goals last year, although these were met with mixed reactions. Cop 29 host Azerbaijan did not submit a new NDC in Baku, with its president signalling challenges for some developing countries in establishing new plans. Some southeast Asian countries have highlighted challenges in providing new targets , such as the lack of common models between sectors, financing and economic growth. Chile said that it will submit an emissions reduction plan by the middle of this year, as a draft document is under consultation . There are many reasons for delays. "The UNFCCC timeline is not necessarily aligned with national decision-making processes and many developing countries face resource and capacity constraints," Srouji said, adding that parties are also expected to submit other documents such as adaptation plans and long term climate strategies. The IEA can provide support on national energy transition plans. The energy watchdog has recently supported Uganda and Vietnam on transition plans, and is in the early stages of transition advisory work with Colombia and Tanzania, it said. Colombia indicated that it will submit its NDC by June as the country seeks to address the "divisive issue" of fossil fuels, on which its economy is dependent. Mixed bag The climate plans submitted so far accounted for around 16pc of global emissions as of 5 February, including commitments from the UK and Brazil, according to WRI. IISD's Jones described the current NDCs as a "mixed bag", in terms of targets and the level of details, saying that the UK emerged as a leader with commitments on oil and gas licensing, while New Zealand has put forward a weak target and no plans. The UK's plan sets out the government's manifesto pledge to phase out sales of new cars "relying solely on internal combustion engines" by 2030, and notes that it will consult on issuing no new oil and gas licences to explore new fields. But none of the countries which posted new NDCs so far — apart from St Lucia — seem to have raised their 2030 targets, despite agreeing to "revisit and strengthen" them in the Cop 28's global stocktake (GST). How countries will respond to elements of GST — which also resulted in all parties agreeing to "transition away" from fossil fuels — will be a key issue to watch, especially after they failed to build on their commitments at Cop 29 in Baku. "While NDCs may show progress on the commitments of the Paris agreement and the commitments of a lot of countries on climate action, it is not clear what they will deliver in terms of the ability to keep 1.5°C in reach", Srouji said. "This is how Cop 30 comes into play, to make sure countries respond adequately and keep on track, he said. By Caroline Varin Countries GHG 2035 reduction targets Countries Headline 2035 target Baseline UAE Cutting GHG emissions by 47pc by 2035 2019 Brazil Cutting GHG emissions by 59-67pc by 2035 2005 US Cutting GHG emissions by 61-66pc by 2035 2005 Uruguay Cutting GHG emissions by 30pc by 2035 2020-22 Switzerland Cutting GHGemissions by 65pc by 2035 1990 UK Cutting GHG emissions by 81pc by 2035 1990 New Zealand Cutting GHG emissions by 51-55pc by 2035 2005 Andorra Cutting GHG emissions by 63pc by 2035 2005 Ecuador Cutting GHG emissions by 7pc by 2035 2010 St Lucia Cutting GHG emissions by 22pc in energy sector by 2035* 2010 Canada** Cutting GHG emissionsby 45-50pc by 2035 2005 Source countries' NDCs *conditional target **Canada only submitted its headline target, not its NDC Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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