Ice TTF gas risk reduction contract positions soar

Spanish Market: Natural gas
03/02/25

Risk reduction contracts held at the Dutch TTF gas trading point on the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) soared to a near record high in the week ending 24 January, suggesting significant hedging activity.

Firms take on risk reduction contracts mostly for hedging purposes — they offset a physical position with a paper position so as to reduce exposure to price fluctuations. When firms inject gas into storage, they might for example open a risk reduction contract on paper to offset this position in the future.

The gross amount of gas that commercial undertakings hold under long and short risk reduction contracts combined reached its second highest since at least 2018 at 1.38PWh in the week ending 24 January, the most recent data from Ice (see risk reduction graph) show. Firms increased their long positions by 19TWh week on week to 581TWh, and their short positions by 13TWh to 794TWh. After netting the two off, commercial undertakings hold a net short position of around 214TWh of risk reduction contracts, down from a recent peak of 228TWh in the week ending 3 January.

Higher LNG deliveries to Europe in recent weeks may have driven some of the interest in risk reduction contracts, given that importers need to hedge ahead of time in order to lock in margins. TTF prices have increased enough in recent weeks to firmly close the arbitrage between the Atlantic and Pacific basins, attracting more LNG cargoes to Europe. European LNG imports soared in January to their highest for any month since April 2023.

The TTF summer 2025 contract's growing premium to the winter 2025-26 market may have additionally boosted interest in risk reduction contracts. The spread widened sharply after Germany's THE announced a consultation for a new kind of storage tender that would subsidise injections if seasonal spreads stay inverted, with many traders seeing this as a signal that German storage sites will be refilled, regardless of commercial incentives. The TTF summer 2025-winter 2025-26 spread jumped to +€4/MWh on 21 January, the day of THE's announcement, from +€2.73/MWh a day earlier, and widened further to as high as +€6.39/MWh by 30 January.

In terms of total net positions across all contract types, investment funds held a net long of nearly 278TWh in the week ending 24 January, the highest since late November. At the same time, investment and credit firms held their highest net short position since October 2021 at 245TWh. Commercial undertakings held a net total short position of 33TWh (see net positions graph).

By Brendan A'Hearn

ICE TTF net contract position TWh

Commercial undertakings' risk reduction contract positions TWh

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27/03/25

UK GHG emissions fell by 4pc in 2024

London, 27 March (Argus) — The UK's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fell by 4pc year-on-year in 2024, provisional data released by the government today show, driven principally by lower gas and coal use in the power and industry sectors. GHG emissions in the UK totalled 371mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) last year, the data show, representing a fall of 54pc compared with 1990 levels. The UK has legally-binding targets to cut its GHG emissions by 68pc by 2030 and 81pc by 2035 against 1990 levels, and to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The electricity sector posted the largest proportional year-on-year fall of 15pc, standing 82pc below 1990 levels at 37.5mn t CO2e. The decline was largely a result of record-high net imports and a 7pc increase in renewable output reducing the call on coal and gas-fired generation, as well as the closure of the country's last coal power plant in September , which together outweighed a marginal rise in overall electricity demand, the government said. Industry posted the next largest emissions decline of 9pc, falling to 48.3mn t CO2e, or 69pc below 1990 levels, as a result of lower coal use across sectors and the closure of iron and steel blast furnaces. Fuel supply emissions fell by 6pc to 28.4mn t CO2e, 63pc below where they stood in 1990. And emissions in the UK's highest-emitting sector, domestic transport, fell by 2pc to 110.1mn t CO2e, 15pc below 1990 levels, as road vehicle diesel use declined. Emissions in the remaining sectors, including agriculture, waste and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), edged down collectively by 1pc to 67.2mn t CO2e, some 50pc below 1990 levels. Only emissions from buildings and product uses increased on the year, rising by 2pc as gas use increased, but still standing 27pc below 1990 levels at 79.8mn t CO2e. UK-based international aviation emissions, which are not included in the overall UK GHG figures, rose by 9pc last year to reach pre-Covid 19 pandemic levels of 26.1mn t CO2e, the data show. But UK-based international shipping emissions edged down by 1pc to 6.2mn t CO2e. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

26/03/25

Trump unveils new tariffs on auto imports: Update

Adds details throughout Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose a 25pc tariff on foreign-made cars and trucks imported into the US, but said there will be no tariffs on automobiles assembled in the US. Trump said the new tariffs on imported automobiles marked the "beginning of Liberation Day", the term Trump has used to reference his plan to unveil sweeping tariffs on major foreign trade partners on 2 April. The White House estimates the tariff on imported cars and trucks will generate $100bn/yr in new tariff revenue. Trump said the auto tariff will go into effect on 2 April, providing a financial incentive for automakers to relocate manufacturing to the US. "We'll effectively be charging a 25pc tariff, but if you build your car in the United States, there's no tariff," Trump said in remarks at the White House. "And what that means is a lot of foreign car companies, a lot of companies, are going to be in great shape." The auto tariffs will likely add thousands of dollars to the price of many imported cars and trucks. But the tariffs — the details of which have yet to be released — appears more targeted than Trump's initial plan to impose a 25pc tariff on nearly all imports from Canada and Mexico, because the tariffs would not apply to cars and trucks parts, so long as the vehicles are assembled in the US. "Anybody that has plants in the United States it's going to be good for, in my opinion," Trump said. Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that Trump's plan to impose a nearly across-the-board import tariff could have caused auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Trump eventually delayed those tariffs until 2 April. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

26/03/25

Trump to impose new tariffs on auto imports

Washington, 26 March (Argus) — President Donald Trump will announce new tariffs on the automobile industry later today, the White House said, at a time of significant uncertainty about his trade policies. Trump plans to offer further details on the automobile tariffs this afternoon, less than a week before he plans to announce tariffs against major foreign trade partners on 2 April, which Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day". Trump has already imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum, and earlier this week said he would announce tariffs on imported lumber, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals. Trump last month threatened to impose 25pc tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico, starting on 4 March — including imported automobiles and vehicle parts — but he eventually offered a one-month reprieve for US automakers before delaying those tariffs entirely until 2 April. The scope and timing of the upcoming automobile tariffs remains unclear, and the White House has yet to provide further details. But Ontario premier Doug Ford previously warned that steep tariffs on Canada could cause auto manufacturing in the US and Canada to grind to a halt within as few as 10 days. Earlier this week, Trump said that South Korean automaker Hyundai's recent decision to invest $5.8bn to build a steel mill in Louisiana offered a blueprint for how companies could avoid tariffs. "This is the beginning of a lot of things happening," Trump said. Even as a lack of details about the upcoming tariffs has fueled uncertainty for businesses and sharp declines on US stock markets, Trump has continued to announce additional tariffs. On Tuesday, Trump said any country taking delivery of Venezuelan oil or gas would be "forced" to pay an incremental 25pc tariff on any goods imported in the US. US oil executives appear to be growing tired of Trump's chaotic trade policy, particularly his imposition of a 25pc tariff on imported steel that is used in drill pipes, executives said in a survey the US Federal Reserve of Dallas released Wednesday. The uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy is causing "chaos", they said in the survey, and increasing their cost of capital. "Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn't have a clear goal," an unnamed oil executive said in the survey. "We want more stability." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

26/03/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro to face trial for coup attempt

Sao Paulo, 26 March (Argus) — Brazil's former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial on charges of an attempted coup following his 2022 electoral defeat, the supreme court (STF) ruled today. In February Brazil's prosecutor-general charged Bolsonaro and seven other people — which include some of his former ministers — of plotting to guarantee that the former president stayed in power despite losing the election to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital of Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents , the prosecutor-general said. STF's five-judge panel voted unanimously to put Bolsonaro on trial, with top judge Alexandre Moraes saying that the 8 January insurrection was a result of "systematic efforts" by Bolsonaro and his aides to discredit the election he lost. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 40 years in jail. He is charged with five crimes, including leading an armed criminal organization, attempted coup and threatening to harm "the Union's assets." Although it is not clear when court proceedings will begin, they are expected this year, which is unusually fast for Brazil's justice system. "They are in a hurry, big hurry," Bolsonaro said of the legal proceedings on social media platform X, adding that the case is moving "10 times faster" than Lula's proceeding when he was on trial for the anti-corruption Car Wash investigation. Lula was eventually found guilty of money laundering and corruption and jailed in April 2018, but was later acquitted and freed in November 2019. Bolsonaro also added that the trial is politically motivated. "The court is trying to prevent me from being tried in 2026, because they want to stop me from running in the elections," he added. Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026. The electoral court voted in June 2023 to make Bolsonaro ineligible to run for any public office until 2030. But he is still seen as a major political force in the country. It is unclear who will serve as Bolsonaro's successor for more conservative voters, although Sao Paulo state's governor Tarcisio de Freitas has emerged as the most likely candidate. Bolsonaro — who sat in the president's seat from 2019-2022 — also faces several other legal challenges to his conduct as president, including allegations of money laundering, criminal association and embezzlement for allegedly receiving jewelry as gifts from Saudi Arabia related to the sale of state-controlled Petrobras' 330,000 b/d Landulpho Alves refinery in northeastern Bahia state to the UAE's Mubadala Capital. But none of these allegations have moved forward in the judiciary. During his administration, Bolsonaro privatized several state-owned energy assets and put little priority on environmental protections, policies that Lula has since reversed. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Methane law limits EU’s pool of gas suppliers: Eurogas

26/03/25

Methane law limits EU’s pool of gas suppliers: Eurogas

London, 26 March (Argus) — The EU's Methane Emission Regulation (MER) creates "significant challenges for ensuring the flexibility, affordability and security of the EU's gas supply", industry association Eurogas told Argus . The legislation, adopted in 2024, aims to reduce methane emissions in the EU's energy sector and from energy imports. It requires that from 2027 new and renewed import contracts demonstrate that, at the point of production, the producing country has rules equivalent to those of the EU on how to monitor, report and verify information on methane emissions, while by 2028 methane intensity will have to be reported, Eurogas summarised. By 2030, imports will have to demonstrate compliance with the methane intensity threshold set by the European Commission. Eurogas "fully supports" the MER's overarching goals of reducing methane emissions and ensuring sustainable energy imports, with the law representing an "important step in aligning climate ambitions with global energy trade", it said. But the regulation's "timeline, uncertainties and extraterritorial implications for importers" create significant challenges for EU gas supply, a particularly acute problem as the EU seeks to replace all Russian gas imports by 2027, Eurogas said. "Multiple challenges" such as the equivalence of systems for monitoring, reporting and verification of methane emissions, as well as the tracking of the origin and emission intensity of deliveries need to be addressed, the association said, noting that "several of the EU's suppliers have expressed major concerns regarding the MER". Ultimately, by significantly increasing the administrative burden on both exporters and importers, disincentivising the signing of long-term contracts, the MER may result in firms turning more towards intra-EU spot trade on hubs, which is "subject to its volatility and supply risks", Eurogas said. Compliance with the regulation becomes particularly difficult in complex cases, such as in the US, where gas can be produced by one company, transported by another, liquefied by a third and imported by a fourth, making it extremely difficult to track emissions across the entire value chain. This problem is compounded if gas is bought on a liquid hub such as the US' Henry Hub, as is frequently the case with US LNG tolling contracts, because there is no system for verifying the origin of gas bought on a hub. From there, gas then frequently co-mingles in pipelines and at the liquefaction facility, further complicating tracing efforts. Unless you are an integrated company that controls the entire route to market, from production to liquefaction to export, it is "very difficult to comply", Eurogas said. Additionally, uncertainties regarding compliance with requirements yet to be defined, liability risks and potential penalties as high as up to 20pc of the importer's annual turnover, make it "difficult for parties to assess risks and move forward with agreements", Eurogas said. Without concrete solutions in place to deliver such tracking and monitoring, the regulation will "limit Europe's potential pool of buyers" and is already "preventing certain gas supply contracts from being signed". Eurogas therefore recommends adopting a "pragmatic approach regarding regulatory equivalence and origin tracking, to ensure compliance can be achieved without endangering Europe's security of supply and avoid distortion between supply routes". Another consideration is that the MER does not specify any direct EU funding to support the implementation of necessary measures. These measures will "inevitably involve significant investments" in advanced monitoring equipment, upgrades of existing facilities to minimise emissions and administrative efforts needed for reporting, the association said. When it comes to EU regulated entities, the regulation clarifies that costs associated with such investments shall be taken into account in tariff setting, subject to efficiency and transparency criteria. The US Department of Energy in October requested the "initiation of an equivalence determination process for importers/third countries" in order to "ensure the continued reliable and stable supply" of gas from the US to Europe. Earlier this month EU officials held technical talks with US firms to support "mutual understanding" on implementation, the European Commission said. The "real challenge" lies in the fact that the commission has not yet formulated the methodology for calculating methane emissions, so the compliance of existing third-party reporting "cannot be assessed", Eurogas said. It should be ensured that the detrimental impact on current gas trading practices and on security of supply "remains limited and to avoid market framework reforms in third countries". Any solution must work in existing pipeline and LNG gas markets and should be "efficient and effective with low cost to industry and consumers" to enable large-scale adoption by the market, the association said. To this end, Eurogas recommends that the possibility of relying on a voluntary certification system based on book-and-claim, or alternatively an adapted mass balancing approach, should be explored. Such an approach would imply accepting foreign interconnected gas systems as a single mass balancing at a global level, where the focus should be on the injections and withdrawals from such systems, rather than on the tracking of the molecules or certificates and their trade within such systems, the association noted. This approach would be necessary in order to minimise the impact on trading and avoid market framework reforms in producers' countries, it said. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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