Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

No Trump tariff exemption on Canadian potash: Update

  • Spanish Market: Fertilizers
  • 03/02/25

Updates with 1 month delay on tariffs.

US president Donald Trump will allow a one month pause before imposing a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports — including potash — from Canada.

Trump signed executive orders on 1 February that will impose the levy on all US imports from Canada, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff.

Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. US fertilizer industry association The Fertilizer Institute said last week that there was not enough certainty as to whether or not the tariffs would be implemented, but if enacted would be counter to Trump's promise during his election campaign to lower grocery prices. Following the issuing of the executive order, TFI said it is ready to collaborate with the Trump administration to spur fertilizer industry growth.

The US has limited domestic MOP production and over 80pc of its potash needs are sourced from Canada, around 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP.

No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP should only further limit supply options.

What does this mean for the US potash market?

The tariff will no doubt raise prices in the US. MOP prices at New Orleans (Nola) and across the Corn Belt have already edged higher in recent weeks because of concerns related to potential tariffs.

Nutrien increased its post-winter fill potash offers on 28 January by $25/st to $340/st fot across US midcontinent warehouses, while river terminals rose to $335/st fob. Granular MOP fob Nola values have also risen, from $255/st at the start of the year to $265/st on 30 January, compared with $322.50/st fob in January 2024.

Argus calculates that the tariff will add an average premium of around $60/t at the US-Canada border but it is uncertain how much of this cost will be passed onto the buyer, or how much will be swallowed by the producer.

Regardless, the higher cost of Canadian potash will likely significantly reduce the volume purchased from Canada and push US buyers to turn to alternative suppliers, which may be cheaper. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 9mn-10mn t/yr of potash that the country needs. Prices for imported MOP may also benefit from an uptick in the price of Canadian potash, as other suppliers may raise prices to narrow the premium that Canada holds, while ensuring that they still remain competitive.

For the upcoming spring application season in the US, there is likely to be limited effect as domestic supply is robust and suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but whether the tariff will still be in place when fall demand is anticipated is difficult to predict.

How will this affect Canadian exports?

If the US takes less potash from Canada, the country will have no option but to push more volume for offshore exports.

Canada exports around 22mn t/yr of MOP, the bulk of which is handled by Canpotex, which markets product from Nutrien and Mosaic. Germany-based K+S also exports MOP from its Bethune mine in Saskatchewan.

Canada typically exports around 11mn-12.5mn t/yr of MOP via Vancouver on the west coast, and Thunder Bay and Saint John's on the east coast. The maximum volume exported from these three ports in a year is around 14mn-15mn t. Another 3mn t can be moved via Portland in the US, which will be unaffected by the tariffs.

But the Canadian rail system has reduced capacity to switch to ports and the export infrastructure will likely see bottlenecks, especially as all commodities will be affected, not just potash, which means that all products will be seeking alternative markets other than the US, and the only other option is to export.

Higher pricing in the US could entice other suppliers to bring more to the US, diverting product away from key market Brazil. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium.

But most imports into the US come through Nola, which is far from the main MOP consuming regions further north in the Corn Belt.

It is clear that the US needs Canadian potash to meet typical US application levels, and that Canada needs the US as an outlet. There remains uncertainty over how long these tariffs will last and under what conditions they might be lifted. Although there appears to be a case for potash to receive an exemption from the executive order, nothing has been said to this effect by the Trump administration.

In response to Trump's tariff executive order, the Canadian government announced its own 25pc tariff on more than $100bn of US imports.

Canada MOP exports to US ’000t

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

14/07/25

India signs phos agreements: Update

India signs phos agreements: Update

Adds Ma'aden's involvement in the five-year deal with Saudi Arabia in paragraph six of that section. London, 14 July (Argus) — Several Indian fertilizer importers have secured more Saudi DAP/NPS and Moroccan DAP and TSP through offtake agreements. The agreements come at a time when India has struggled to maintain comfortable DAP inventories, largely because of a lack of supply from China, which has drastically reduced its phosphates exports this year. Indian DAP stocks fell throughout June to begin July well below typical levels, at about 1.56mn t, provisional data show. Five-year deal with Saudi Arabia Indian importers IPL, Kribhco and Coromandel have signed an offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia for 3.1mn t/yr of phosphates over the coming five years. The quantity will mostly be DAP but also includes NPS. The deal covers five years starting from India's 2025-26 fiscal year (April-March), and includes an option for a five-year extension. The delegations discussed developing customised fertilizers specifically for India and have established a joint working group to explore long-term collaboration. The cargoes will be priced on a spot basis. The agreed quantity will surpass the 1.88mn t of DAP and 250,000t of NPS — totalling 2.13mn t — that India imported from Saudi Arabia over the 2024 calendar year, according to Argus line-up data. Most of the product will come from Saudi Arabia's largest phosphates producer, Ma'aden. The agreement stands as an additional memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ma'aden and its regular Indian private and public-sector offtakers, with whom Ma'aden has existing MoUs including for supply and product development. Additional DAP, TSP from Morocco's OCP Six Indian importers have signed another agreement with Moroccan producer OCP for the supply of DAP and TSP up to the end of the current calendar year, Argus understands. This brings the total agreed quantities between Morocco and India to 1.5mn t of DAP and 1mn t of TSP. The latest agreement is for an additional 300,000t of DAP and 200,000t of TSP, adding to the 1.2mn t of DAP and 800,000t of TSP agreed in April . The cargoes will be priced on formula. The importers are IPL, NFL, Hurl, PPL, RFC and Fact. OCP did not comment on the deal. India has imported 730,000t of DAP and 285,000t of TSP from Morocco since the beginning of April. India has so far not taken TSP from any other origin since it began importing the product in June 2024. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India signs phos agreements with Saudi Arabia, Morocco


14/07/25
14/07/25

India signs phos agreements with Saudi Arabia, Morocco

London, 14 July (Argus) — Several Indian fertilizer importers have secured more Saudi DAP/NPS and Moroccan DAP and TSP through offtake agreements. The agreements come at a time when India has struggled to maintain comfortable DAP inventories, largely because of a lack of supply from China, which has drastically reduced its phosphates exports this year. Indian DAP stocks fell throughout June to begin July well below typical levels, at about 1.56mn t, provisional data show. Five-year deal with Saudi Arabia Indian importers IPL, Kribhco and Coromandel have signed an offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia for 3.1mn t/yr of phosphates over the coming five years. The quantity will mostly be DAP but also includes NPS. The deal covers five years starting from India's 2025-26 fiscal year (April-March), and includes an option for a five-year extension. The delegations discussed developing customised fertilizers specifically for India and have established a joint working group to explore long-term collaboration. The cargoes will be priced on a spot basis. The agreed quantity will surpass the 1.88mn t of DAP and 250,000t of NPS — totalling 2.13mn t — that India imported from Saudi Arabia over the 2024 calendar year, according to Argus line-up data. Additional DAP, TSP from Morocco's OCP Six Indian importers have signed another agreement with Moroccan producer OCP for the supply of DAP and TSP up to the end of the current calendar year, Argus understands. This brings the total agreed quantities between Morocco and India to 1.5mn t of DAP and 1mn t of TSP. The latest agreement is for an additional 300,000t of DAP and 200,000t of TSP, adding to the 1.2mn t of DAP and 800,000t of TSP agreed in April . The cargoes will be priced on formula. The importers are IPL, NFL, Hurl, PPL, RFC and Fact. OCP did not comment on the deal. India has imported 730,000t of DAP and 285,000t of TSP from Morocco since the beginning of April. India has so far not taken TSP from any other origin since it began importing the product in June 2024. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chile sulacid prices decouple from global dynamics


14/07/25
14/07/25

Chile sulacid prices decouple from global dynamics

London, 14 July (Argus) — Chilean sulphuric acid prices have resisted to reflect current market tightness at key supply regions as subdued demand and a large number of vessels arriving at Mejillones have resulted in a well-supplied market. Chilean delivered prices have once again decoupled from the international market, as these were last assessed at $175-180/t cfr on 10 July, on a deal concluded for a 15,000t acid cargo for arrival in the third quarter to Mejillones. Notionally, delivered prices should be at and above $190/t cfr, in line with the latest prices for Chinese volumes sold for September and current freight rates to Chile. The latest Chinese cargoes were concluded in the mid-$90s/t for September loading, and with freight rates nearing the mid-$90s/t for a 30,000t cargo from China to Chile, theoretical prices are well below the most recent concluded deal confirmed last week. But buyers are resisting higher offers and appear to be only willing to enter the market to secure opportunistic cargoes. There is still unfulfilled demand expected for arrival in the fourth quarter, but it is not clear when fresh demand will emerge due to the current market availability at the port and slightly lower consumption by key buyers. There are seven vessels awaiting to discharge at Mejillones, one of which is the PVT Clara , which has been waiting since 13 June, carrying 19,000t of acid from Eti Bakir in Turkey. Additionally, some unusual trade flows have been seen at neighbouring countries, which traditionally ship most of their excess acid to Chile, with the most notable example being the Eva Fuji , which sailed with 20,000t from the Southern Peru Copper Corporation's Ilo smelter and is currently heading to Morocco's Jorf Lasfar port. A well-supplied market last year and logistical issues at Mejillones in April led to a Peruvian cargo being re-directed from its original destination to a couple of buyers in Brazil. Chile imported a total of 1.73mn t in January-May, up by 15pc from the 1.5mn t imported in the same period last year. China has been the largest supplier to Chile, shipping 62pc of the total volumes so far this year. By Lili Minton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US


10/07/25
10/07/25

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Rio de Janeiro, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday. He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage". He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus. Brazil has run a trade deficit for goods and services with the US adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview. "This is an eminently political decision, because there is no economic rationale in this measure," he said. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods. The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations. The tariffs can "severely hamper production, investments and supply chains between the two countries," US-Brazilian chamber of commerce Amcham said. The tariffs bring uncertainty to the country's oil and gas sector, Brazil's oil chamber IBP said. Crude is Brazil's main export to the US, accounting for $5.8bn last year. "We are cautiously assessing the true impacts on investments and competitiveness on our industry," IBP said. The Brazilian real slumped against the US dollar in the wake of Trump's announcement, dropping to R5.6/$1 on Thursday morning before rallying slightly. A weaker real increases production costs for Brazilian companies who rely on imports. A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries. "I don't think that this situation will continue," Haddad said of the "unsustainable" 50pc levy, highlighting Brazil's diplomatic tradition. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US


10/07/25
10/07/25

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Rio de Janeiro, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, its president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday. He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage". He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods. The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations. A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more