Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

Australia’s GrainCorp forecasts higher exports in FY25

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture
  • 14/02/25

Australian bulk handler GrainCorp is forecasting higher exports and grain receivals for its 2024-25 financial year ending on 30 September because of a larger grain crop from eastern states.

GrainCorp projects exports to reach 6.5mn-7.5mn t in 2024-25, up from 5.6mn t a year earlier, the company said on 13 February. The bulk handler exported 2.7mn t of grain over 1 October 2024-13 February 2025.

The total winter and summer crop output for the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria is estimated to increase by 21pc to 34.2mn t in the fiscal year to 30 June 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. This will support increased grain deliveries to GrainCorp's east coast storage and handling network.

GrainCorp is expecting its total grain receivals for 2024-25 to reach 13-14mn t, up by around 30-40pc from 2023-24. It has received 11.9mn t of this total as of 13 February. Total volumes of grain handled is forecast to rise by 11-18pc on the year in 2024-25.

Total grain and oilseeds delivered to GrainCorp's storage and handling network could represent 38-41pc of the total crop produced in summer and winter in Australia's eastern states in the 2024-25 financial year.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Australia to export 25mn t of wheat in the October 2024-September 2025 marketing year. Australia exported 3.87mn t of wheat in October-December 2024, or 15pc of the USDA wheat export target, 46pc of which was exported from eastern states ports, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show.

GrainCorp Grain Volumesmn t
FY25FY24% ±
Carry-In (1 Oct)2.53.9-36.0
Receivals13-1410.129 to 39
Domestic outload5.5-6.55.9-7 to 10
Exports 6.5-7.55.616 to 34
Carry-out2.5-3.52.50 to 40
Total grain handled31-332811 to 18

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

17/07/25

Australia northern feeder cattle: Demand increases

Australia northern feeder cattle: Demand increases

Sydney, 17 July (Argus) — The Argus Australian northern steer price rose by 9A¢/kg to 393A¢/kg this week. Feeder cattle supply is easing as graziers retain stock on winter forage to reach heavier weights, capitalizing on stronger returns and avoiding high replacement costs. Heightened demand from southern Australia feedlots is also intensifying competition. Crossbred saleyard and feedlot prices ranged between 380-412A¢/kg. Feedlots are contracting cattle for August, relying on backgrounded and company-owned stock to maintain throughput amid tightening supply. A major southern Queensland feedlot purchased 108 oat-finished Santa Gertrudis heavy feeder steers from the Dalby cattle sale on 16 July for 408A¢/kg. Brahman-infused cattle from northern pastoral properties are in plentiful supply and presenting in excellent forward condition, with southern Queensland feedlots offering 350A¢/kg. Pregnancy-tested empty heavy feeder heifers sold at the Dalby cattle sale for 371A¢/kg, while local feedlots are offering 350A¢/kg. A total of 1,214 head sold at a special feeder sale in Roma on 11 July, with prices averaging 412A¢/kg for crossbred steers and 331A¢/kg for crossbred heifers, with local and southern feedlots the highest bidders. The growth of winter forage and grain crops, which has stalled from dry, cold weather could be assisted by forecast rain of up to 15mm on 17-18 July in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales (NSW). Further forecast precipitation across southern Queensland and most of NSW next week could also raise winter crop yields and encourage winter herbage growth in pastures. While forecast rainfall is largely excluding central Queensland, graziers have sufficient quality pasture available. The Argus Angus steer price rose by 13A¢/kg to 493A¢/kg this week. Saleyards and feedlots priced Angus cattle at 485-500A¢/kg. Feedlots are contracting cattle for August. Southern feedlots are continuing to purchase cattle in the paddock and at saleyards across northern NSW and southern Queensland because of drought. A pen of 63 Angus steers from Warialda, with an average weight of 445kg, sold online on 11 July for 496A¢/kg. A pen of Angus heavy feeder steers at the Dalby cattle sale on 16 July sold for 476A¢/kg. Feedlot offers for Angus feeder heifers are between 410-420A¢/kg. The Argus Angus steer price has risen by 34A¢/kg in the past three weeks because of tight supply as winter progresses. The price spread between the Argus Australian northern feeder steer and the Argus Australian northern feeder Angus steer is now 100A¢/kg. Many feedlots are reporting a 100A¢/kg difference between their offers for crossbred and Angus steers. The price spread is rarely seen, most market participants say, but the value difference is 23pc. While export demand is firm, the high prices being paid for Angus feeders are becoming unsustainable, meat traders said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits


16/07/25
16/07/25

US refiners lobby to revive expired biofuel credits

New York, 16 July (Argus) — A group of small oil refiners asked US officials at a recent meeting to not just grant exemptions from years-old biofuel blend mandates but to also provide lucrative program credits they can sell to other companies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, but farm groups fear that a backlog of exemption requests threaten those targets. There are more than 180 unresolved exemption requests stretching over 10 years after courts struck down various denials during former-president Joe Biden's term. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refiners and importers must annually blend biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. But refiners that process 75,000 b/d or less of crude and can prove "disproportionate economic hardship" are able to request full exemptions which can mean tens of millions of dollars in reduced compliance costs. In a 20 May meeting with EPA officials, a coalition of small refiners made the case that President Donald Trump's administration should not just grant broad relief from 2019-2022 mandates but also issue "replacement RINs" for any refiners that already complied. EPA should issue these RINs "with adequate lead time" before compliance deadlines and ensure they have "adequate shelf life", according to a proposal shared with EPA by a coalition lawyer and obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency should even consider giving companies more credits than they submitted if RINs are cheaper now, the group argued. RINs from those years are otherwise expired and would be useless if returned as is. "Hardship relief is more critical now than ever", the group of 14 companies argues, given rising biofuel quotas. The issue is politically tricky for EPA, since widespread waivers threaten biofuel and crop demand, and has been the subject of numerous court fights over the years. The first Trump administration handed out exemptions generously , but current officials have not yet staked out a clear position. EPA told Argus it is taking steps "to reduce the backlog as soon as possible". Living RIN the past EPA could potentially return credits on a staggered timeline or impose conditions on their use to avert market turmoil, according to lawyers and lobbyists experienced in waiver issues. The proposal alludes to this, noting however that "any conditions on RIN return that are intended to address potential market reactions must strike the appropriate balance to ensure flexibility to small refineries". Biofuel groups have lobbied against retroactive waivers but said that EPA could minimize the damage by making other oil companies blend more biofuels. The agency should ensure that any exemptions "will be made up in the market", said Emily Skor, president of ethanol lobby Growth Energy, at a hearing last week. But the refiners' proposal argues that EPA is not required to do so if it grants exemptions retroactively. The agency has estimated future exemptions when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend — frustrating large producers that then shoulder more of the burden of meeting high-level targets — but doing the same with past-year waivers is more legally risky. The small refiners float a less aggressive approach for other compliance years. The proposal notably makes no reference to petitions for relief from 2016-2018 quotas. EPA under Biden rejected 31 petitions for those years but did not require companies to surrender additional RINs, potentially making any push for extra relief a tougher sell despite courts' skepticism of the underlying denials. And for 2023 and beyond, the refiners say that EPA should rely on "merit-driven scoring". EPA already consults with the Department of Energy, which scores hardship for individual applicants, though the importance of this feedback has varied over the program's history. The coalition also wants EPA to rescind three 2023 compliance year denials issued during the final days of Biden's term, which affected two Calumet refineries and one CVR Energy refinery. RINto the future The coalition's proposal is notable since small refiners — apart from a handful recently calling for a "seat at the table" — have largely not publicized their asks of the Trump administration, leading traders to speculate wildly on policy shifts. RIN prices have been volatile as a result. The coalition includes 14 companies that submitted 41 petitions that courts have told EPA to reconsider as well as 37 requests for more recent years, the proposal says. They are represented by independent attorney Claudia O'Brien, who did not respond to a request for comment. The documents obtained by Argus do not list all companies involved in the effort, but lawyers for Calumet, Par Pacific and Placid Refining were scheduled to attend the May meeting in person with top EPA appointees Aaron Szabo and Alexander Dominguez, while others attended virtually. O'Brien said in a separate email that Hunt Refining, REH Company, and Ergon were part of the coalition. The policy requests represent the position of one group and not necessarily all 34 refineries EPA estimates are eligible for future waivers. It is not clear how officials responded at the meeting or what options they are weighing now. EPA wants to finalize new blend mandates before November and has said it plans to communicate its approach to exemptions beforehand. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil focuses on reversing US tariffs: VP


15/07/25
15/07/25

Brazil focuses on reversing US tariffs: VP

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Brazil is focused on reversing the tariff hike imposed by US president Donald Trump and will only ask for a postponement if necessary, Brazilian vice-president Geraldo Alckmin said on Tuesday after meeting with agribusiness representatives. Trump last week threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil as of 1 August , citing a criminal trial against former president Jair Bolsonaro for attempting to overthrow the country's 2022 election results. At a press conference after the meeting today representatives from different agribusiness sectors were in agreement that the dialogue with the US government needs to continue. Agriculture ministry Carlos Favaro said that "dialogue [between the two countries] is open on the Brazilian side, but with respect for sovereignty and with great pride". Beef, orange juice and coffee are among agricultural products Brazil exports the most to the US, according to Brazil's ministry of development, industry, commerce and services. Brazil's meatpacking plants are stopping production because of the likely effects that the 50pc tariffs could have on the market, according to the president of Brazil's association of meat exporting industries Abiec, Roberto Perosa . The US is the second largest importer of Brazil's beef, only behind China. The US already imposes tariffs of around 36pc on Brazil's beef sector, according to Perosa, and an additional 50pc tariff "would practically make exports to the US unfeasible." Citrus juice exporters are also concerned about the possible new tariffs, especially considering that the 2025-26 orange season started in June and goes through December-January. Brazil accounts for 70pc of the orange juice the US imports, according to Brazil's national association of citrus juice exporters CitrusBR. The group's president, Ibiapaba Netto, said that "there is still time for negotiation" until 1 August and that "it is necessary to maintain pragmatism". Brazil published today a decree regulating the economic reciprocity law, which establishes criteria for suspending trade concessions, investments and obligations related to intellectual property rights in response to unilateral measures adopted by countries or economic blocs that may negatively impact Brazil's international competitiveness. By Renata Gabrielli and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro


15/07/25
15/07/25

Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Brazilian prosecutors said the country's supreme court (STF) should find former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants guilty of an attempted coup. In a 517-page briefing that is part of attorney general Paulo Gonet's closing arguments at trial, prosecutors argue that Bolsonaro and the other defendants should be convicted of the crimes of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Bolsonaro was the "main orchestrator and biggest beneficiary" of a plot to make sure that he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Gonet said during the trial. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . Also as part of the plot, Bolsonaro used the power of the state and operated in a "persistent scheme" to attack public institutions and the succession process after the presidential election results, Gonet said. The seven other defendants include Bolsonaro's running mate Walter Braga Netto; former minister Augusto Heleno, who is also an army general; Bolsonaro's former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and Bolsonaro's top aide Mauro Cid. If convicted, Cid is expected to have his sentence suspended due to a plea bargain agreement signed with the federal police during investigations. Cid will now have 15 days to present his final defense. The other defendants will then have an additional 15 days to do the same. A date for the justices to begin deliberations will be set after STF receives all statements. That is expected for September this year, according to the government. If convicted, the defendants, including Bolsonaro, can face up to 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro, Trump push back Bolsonaro — who is barred from running for any public office until 2030 — used social media to call the trial a "shameful farce". Bolsonaro's trial gained a new spotlight after US president Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing an alleged "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro. Lula said Brazil will reciprocate the US tariffs. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," he said on social media last week. He also added that the country "will not accept any form of tutelage." Lula signed the reciprocity law on Monday, according to the government. It authorizes Brazil to suspend trade, investment and obligation concessions to countries that impose unilateral barriers to Brazilian products in the global market. It also creates a committee — which will be comprised of the ministers of trade, finance, foreign relations and the chief of staff — that will be in charge of deciding trade responses to other countries' unilateral measures. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs


12/07/25
12/07/25

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30pc tariffs

Washington, 12 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday said the US will impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the EU beginning on 1 August. In a move that could significantly disrupt crude, refined product and other commodity flows, Trump made public on his social media platform letters sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on Friday threatening the new tariffs. Trump also vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico or the EU were to retaliate with their own measures. The threats follow similar letters sent to leaders of other countries this past week, including a 35pc tariff on Canadian imports , likewise starting on 1 August, and a 50pc tariff on Brazilian imports . In his letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to "Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels" smuggling fentanyl into the US. "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. "If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 30pc that we charge," Trump wrote to Sheinbaum. His letter to von der Leyen included similar language. Trump's previous executive orders regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada carved out exemptions for goods compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. A White House official on Friday, following Trump's 10 July Canadian tariff announcement, said the exemption will remain in place, with a caveat that Trump has yet to determine the final form of application. Regarding the EU, Trump argued the 30pc figure "is far less than what is needed to eliminate the Trade Deficit disparity we have with the EU". Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. "We stated at the meeting that [the new tariff plan] was unfair treatment and that we disagreed." After receipt of the new tariff letter, von der Leyen said Trump's tariffs "would disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic". The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more