Swedish wind output structurally shifts Nordic hydro

Spanish Market: Electricity
19/03/25

Higher Swedish wind output is a structural supply shift that could support Norwegian hydro stocks over the long term, as recent record hydro reserves come despite below-average rainfall between October 2024 and February 2025.

Combined Nordic hydropower reserves have held a surplus to the 10-year maximum for eight of the first 10 weeks of 2025, peaking at seven percentage points in week 10, as Norwegian hydro reserves unexpectedly increased from a week earlier. Reserves across Finland, Norway and Sweden closed week 10 at 55.6pc of capacity, seven percentage points above any other week in the previous 10 years and 5.1 percentage points higher than in 2008, the next highest year.

Hydro production in Norway fell on the year in 2024, dropping to an average of 12.1GW, down from 12.2GW in 2023 and around 7pc below the five-year average of 12.9pc. Tighter hydro conditions in the first half of the year weighed on generation. Still, in the final six months of 2024, hydro reservoir output also fell on the year, dropping by 4pc to an average of 11.4GW, down from 11.9GW. That is despite combined Nordic reserves last year holding an average stock surplus of 5.2 percentage points to 2023 between weeks 34 and 52.

At the same time, Swedish wind output increased to an average of 4.6GW last year, up by 18pc on the year from 3.9GW a year earlier and ending last year around 34pc higher than the five-year average. Higher wind generation weighs significantly on regional day-ahead prices and discourages hydro production by lowering the spot below the perceived water value of stored hydropower capacity.

Rising wind capacity and its effect on the power mix is particularly notable during the first and fourth winter quarters, with generally the highest prices, with Swedish wind output averaging 5.8GW last year between January and March and October and December, up by 22pc from the equivalent periods in 2022.

That displacement represents a structural supply shift in the Nordic power market that can support hydro reserves beyond rain and temperature outlook patterns going forward and during below-average precipitation periods, as the call for hydro production falls in hours when wind output is highest that — before significant wind capacity additions in Sweden — were routine output hours. Furthermore, higher run-of-river generation last year, up by 8pc in 2024 compared with a year earlier to an average of 3.4GW, captures the higher stock feed-in and water volumes that supported Nordic reservoirs in 2024 leading into 2025 and emphasises that, like wind output, run-of-river, which is generally not dispatchable undermines the regional spot price and reduces the call for reservoir hydro output.

Norwegian hydro production last week peaked at 19.7GW on 13 March and averaged 17.9GW between 10 and 16 March, exceeding the monthly average of 15.9GW in March so far. Higher Norwegian hydro output was directly correlated with lower Swedish wind generation on those days, with Swedish average daily wind generation falling to 1.1GW and 1.5GW on 12 March and 13 March, respectively, while Norwegian hydro output topped 19GW on both days. By 15 and 16 March, Norwegian hydro production fell back to 16.6GW and 14.5GW, as Swedish wind generation rose to 7.6GW and 8.2GW.

Unseasonably high reserves have consistently weighed on summer delivery power contracts and supported a substantial €59.20/MWh discount for Nordic June to the German equivalent on 18 March and an average discount of €59.13/MWh between 3 and 18 March. The Nordic third quarter last closed at a €66.10/MWh discount to the German equivalent and has averaged €67.23/MWh below Germany's front quarter over the previous 30 days.

Reserves ended last month at 57.8pc of total capacity, some 3.4 percentage points above the 10-year maximum and in Norway, reserves were just 0.5 percentage points below the long-term national maximum, with stocks since switching to a 2.8 percentage point surplus to the maximum in week 10 and a 2.4 percentage point surplus in week 11.

This was despite precipitation between October and February being up on the year, it remained below the region's seasonal norm by nearly 20.6mm, with rainfall in Bergen over the same period below the average in four of the past five years. Precipitation over the five months last exceeded the seasonal norm in 2022, totalling 1,804.8mm and registering a 422.9mm surplus to the average. But at February's close, hydro reserves in 2022 were 17.2 percentage points below the equivalent week in 2025, underscoring increased Swedish wind output's impact over the 2024-25 season.

By Daniel Craig

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

28/04/25

Japan’s Erex starts up biomass power plant in Vietnam

Tokyo, 28 April (Argus) — Japan's renewable energy developer Erex has started commercial operations at the 20MW Hau Giang biomass-fired power plant in Vietnam, the company announced on 25 April. The power plant in southern Vietnam's Hau Giang province is Erex's first biomass-fired generation project in the country and burns around 130,000 t/yr of rice husks. The electricity generated by the plant is sold under Vietnam's feed-in tariff (FiT) scheme. Erex aims to build up to 18 biomass-fired power plants in Vietnam following Hau Giang, and five plants in Cambodia. The company has started building two 50MW plants in northern Vietnam. These plants are expected to come on line by mid-2027 and burn wood residues. Erex also plans wood pellet production projects in southeast Asia, with up to 20 factories in Vietnam and several ones in Cambodia. The company's first wood pellet factory in Vietnam with a capacity of 150,000 t/yr has already started commercial production in late March. Erex's profits from projects in Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to grow rapidly and will account for more than half of its whole profits around 2030, according to the company. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

25/04/25

Nations, groups ramp up efforts on climate unity

Transition aligning with energy security and more Chinese climate leadership may reinforce co-operation despite the US withdrawal, writes Georgia Gratton London, 25 April (Argus) — The UN, IEA and countries including the UK and Brazil — which hosts this year's UN Cop 30 climate summit — stepped up efforts this week to demonstrate common ground and build unity on climate action and the energy transition. Organisations and countries are looking to capitalise on areas of commonality in order to preserve climate action, as the US administration repeatedly pushes back on measures to tackle climate change and moves to curb the energy transition. A virtual meeting convened this week by UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres and Brazil's president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, drew 17 world leaders to commit to keeping climate action a key priority. "Leaders need reassurance that they're not acting alone," a senior UN official says. "Collaboration and multilateralism still matter," a senior Brazilian official says. Cop 30, which will take place in November in the Amazonian city of Belem, will "have a different dynamic", the official adds. "We want to prove that multilateralism is not only about negotiating documents… but about making them real." China's president, Xi Jinping, participated in this week's high-level meeting, the UN confirmed. While the US — the world's second-highest emitter — has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, China is continuing to step forward on climate action. It remains the highest-emitting country by some way, but this week reiterated a commitment to a new climate plan for the period to 2035, covering "all economic sectors and all greenhouse gases", Guterres said. The EU this week noted China's co-operation at Cop 29 — where it was widely viewed as projecting leadership on climate — setting the scene for new climate alliances. While the US government pushes back on clean energy and climate action, support for the energy transition remains strong at sub-national level, from many US state governors, and from the private sector . A poll from three NGOs, including the UK's E3G, this week found that of nearly 1,500 business executives — including in the US — 97pc supported a transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The majority of the world has held firm on climate commitments. Heads of state and government of jurisdictions including the EU, several G20 economies and developing nations committed to submitting "ambitious and robust [climate] plans", Guterres said after the meeting. Renewable security Organisations and countries have been careful to underline that different national circumstances will mean that jurisdictions take different approaches to tackling climate change. Although this is a key tenet of the Paris agreement, it also remains a bone of contention in multilateral talks. But the co-hosts of this week's energy security summit, the UK government and energy watchdog the IEA, put the issue front and centre. "Different pathways for different nations should be respected," UK energy minister Ed Miliband told the summit. The almost 60 governments that the UK and IEA hosted will have "different approaches to energy security based on their nation's circumstances and policies", IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's determination to double down on its energy transition, but also extended a nod to the US for its LNG supply as the bloc pivoted away from imports of Russian gas. But many note that achieving energy security is well aligned with a transition to renewable energy. The UK's path "is a hard-headed approach to the role of low carbon power as the route to energy security", Miliband said, while the cost of renewable power is now the cheapest option for the majority of the world. "The pathway out of climate hell is paved by renewables," Guterres said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports

25/04/25

Kurdish gas plans may boost Iraqi oil exports

Dubai, 25 April (Argus) — Plans for a significant increase in natural gas production in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region over the next 18 months could not only help address the country's chronic power shortages but also enable Baghdad to boost its oil exports. The Pearl Petroleum consortium — which comprises Abu Dhabi-listed Dana Gas, Sharjah-based Crescent Petroleum, Austria's OMV, Hungary's Mol, and Germany's RWE — aims to increase gas production capacity in Kurdistan to 825mn ft³/d by the end of next year, representing a more than 50pc increase from current output. The plan involves expanding the capacity of the region's sole gas-producing field, Khor Mor, to 750mn ft³/d by the first quarter of 2026, and adding up to 75mn ft³/d from the Chemchemal field by the end of 2026. According to a source at Pearl, the development of Chemchemal is a key priority for the companies, as it is believed to have reservoirs comparable to those of Khor Mor. Under a 2019 agreement, the additional gas from the expansion project will be sold to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for a 20-year term, which should help eliminate the region's frequent power outages, particularly during peak summer months when demand for air conditioning is high. The Kurdistan region will also be well-positioned to supply any excess gas to the rest of Iraq. The federal government in Baghdad had previously approved a plan to import approximately 100mn ft³/d of gas from Khor Mor to power a 620MW plant in Kirkuk province, but no formal agreement has been signed to date. "The federal ministry of electricity and Crescent Petroleum have already met to finalise the agreement, which is ready for signature and awaiting implementation," the Pearl source said. "The infrastructure needed to support the sale of this quantity of gas is also in place." The plan has faced delays partly because of Iran's long-standing influence over Iraq and the potential impact such an agreement with the Kurdistan region could have on Baghdad's reliance on Iranian gas and power. However, the revival of US president Donald Trump's ‘maximum pressure' campaign against Tehran is forcing Baghdad to get serious about seeking alternative energy sources, with the Kurdistan region emerging as a viable option. Crude Export Boost Formalising the deal to import Kurdish gas would allow Baghdad to allocate more oil for export, as it would reduce the need to burn crude for power generation. Argus estimates that Iraq typically burns between 50,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d of crude in its power stations, depending on the season, and has recently increased imports of gasoil for power generation. By the time Iraqi Kurdistan has fully ramped up its additional gas capacity, Iraq's Opec+ crude output target will be 200,000 b/d higher than it is today, based on the group's latest production plans. By Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s palm kernel shell imports hit high in March

25/04/25

Japan’s palm kernel shell imports hit high in March

Tokyo, 25 April (Argus) — Japan's palm kernel shells (PKS) imports rose on the year and on the month to a record high in March, according to data published by the country's finance ministry today. Japan imported 685,000t of wood pellets in March, up by 29pc each from a year earlier and from February. Vietnam remained the largest supplier at 491,000t, almost doubling on the year and up by 62pc on the month. The second-largest supplier was Canada. Japan's PKS imports were 670,000t in March, up by 21pc from the same month of 2024, and up by 15pc from the previous month, which marked the largest amount on record. The top supplier was Indonesia. Malaysia followed at 188,000t, also hitting a record high. Several biomass-fired power plants have come on line in Japan in recent months, including the 46MW Imari power plant on 19 April, which started test runs in February, burning imported PKS. There will also be a number of new plants starting commercial operations in the coming months, such as the 53MW Fukuyama in May and the 75MW Sakaide Hayashida in June, although the 50MW Karatsu postponed its start-up from March to September this year. By Takeshi Maeda Japan's biomass imports by key supplying countries 000t Wood Pellet Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Mar 2024 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Canada 106.6 121.1 100.3 -12.0 6.3 Thailand 10.1 0.0 0.0 - - Indonesia 41.3 37.8 59.4 9.2 -30.4 Vietnam 490.6 302.5 247.1 62.2 98.6 Malaysia 36.5 64.1 22.3 -43.1 64.1 US 0.0 0.0 102.5 - -100.0 China 0.2 4.0 0.1 -96.2 70.0 Total 685.2 529.8 531.5 29.3 28.9 PKS Mar-25 Feb-25 Mar-24 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Indonesia 477.7 430.8 437.3 10.9 9.3 Malaysia 187.5 146.2 113.1 28.3 65.8 Sri Lanka 3.9 3.1 4.4 26.1 -11.1 Others 0.7 0.4 0.5 51.8 28.5 Total 670.4 581.1 556.1 15.4 20.5 Source: Finance ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

23/04/25

US generators weigh delaying coal plant retirements

New York, 23 April (Argus) — US utilities are considering additional extensions to coal plant retirements in response to recent policy changes, even though the benefit for the coal industry may be short-lived. US utilities are still mostly reviewing US president Donald Trump's executive orders issued earlier this month plus other actions initiated by his administration. One of the more concrete recent actions were the two-year exemptions from complying with updated Mercury and Air Toxics Standards granted to dozens of power plants on 15 April. But even though utilities had applied for these exemptions, the majority of those that spoke to Argus indicated they are still evaluating their options. "Granting a two-year compliance extension at Labadie and Sioux will enable Ameren Missouri to further refine its compliance strategy and optimize planned monitoring mechanisms to ensure accuracy," said Ameren Missouri director of environmental services Craig Giesmann. "We are committed to selecting cost-effective solutions that minimize the impact on customer rates." Ameren's 1,099MW Sioux plant is scheduled to be closed by 2028 and the 2,389MW Labadie plant has no concrete retirement date. Tennessee Valley Authority said it is "carefully reviewing" the mercury and air toxics exemptions "for how it might apply and benefit our efforts to support load growth across our seven-state region." The federal utility was granted exemptions for all of its coal facilities, including units of the Cumberland and Kingston plants that had been scheduled to close by the 1 July 2027 compliance deadline for the new mercury and air toxics standards. NRG Energy and Xcel Energy also said they are still considering how to proceed. "It will take our regulatory and environmental teams some time to evaluate and access the new guidelines, so we do not have any update to share at this time," NRG said. The utility was granted exemptions for four coal plants with a combined 7,092MW of capacity. None of these units currently has concrete retirement dates scheduled. Companies need to take into account other factors before committing to extending a coal unit's life, including natural gas price expectations and whether government regulations will stay in place. In addition, the planning process for retiring and adding generating assets takes time. These factors also are being taken into account by utilities that do not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but could be affected by other efforts the Trump administration is making to try to preserve coal generation. "Whatever impacts may arise from policy changes this year will be assessed in a future [Integrated Resource Plan], with the best analysis of information available at that time," utility PacifiCorp said. The utility just filed its latest integrated resource plan with state regulators on 31 March and does not expect to file another one until early 2027. Another utility that did not have coal units on the list of mercury rule exemptions but would be affected by other regulatory actions said it is considering extending coal unit operations by a few years. A US coal producer reported receiving increased inquiries from utilities about the feasibility of continuing to get coal supply beyond power plant units' planned retirement dates. Both buyers and sellers that talked to Argus agree that contract flexibility is gaining importance. But "even if you roll back some regulations and push deadlines on various retirements and certain requirements out into the future, you still can not justify taking more coal unless it is going to be competitive" with natural gas, one market participant said. While profit margins for dispatching coal in US electric grids were above natural gas spark spreads for a number of days this past winter, that was an anomaly when compared with recent years. Coal may bridge generating gap But recent policy changes could help utilities use coal generation to bridge any gaps in generating capacity caused by delays in bringing other energy sources online. These include possible delays in adding solar generation following increased tariffs the Trump administration has imposed on imports from China as well as legislation moving through some state governing bodies aimed at inhibiting renewable projects. On 15 April, the Texas Senate passed a bill that would impose restrictions on solar and wind projects, including new permits, fees, regulatory requirements, and taxes. Separately, North Carolina legislators are reviewing a bill that proposes reducing solar tax breaks from 80pc to 40pc and limiting locations for utility-scale projects. Other states are moving forward with efforts to encourage less carbon-intensive generation. Colorado governor Jared Polis (D) on 31 March signed legislation classifying nuclear energy as a "clean" power source. Increased renewable energy generating capacity still is expected to be the "main contributor" to growth in US electricity generation, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). But EIA's latest outlook did not take into account the coal-related executive orders Trump signed on 8 April. "We are currently evaluating these developments, and they will be reflected in the May STEO," EIA chief economist Jonathan Church said. Most market participants do not expect substantial long-term changes to come from recent coal-supporting efforts because of various other factors including the fundamental economics of coal-fired power plants. By Elena Vasilyeva Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more