US propane prices remain firm as stocks fall again

Spanish Market: LPG
01/04/25

Inventories at a three-year low and strong demand for exports supported propane prices this month, writes Joseph Barbour

US Gulf coast Mont Belvieu propane prices remained elevated relative to crude last month as domestic inventories declined to their lowest since 2022.

Mont Belvieu LST propane prices averaged 54.3pc of Nymex WTI crude in March, up by 11.4 percentage points from a year earlierand 4.4 percentage points higher than the five-year March average. US propane stocks typically start to build from March as seasonal heating demand abates — the first stockbuild of the year took place in the second or third week of March in 2021-24, EIA data show. And support for prices from expectations of cold weather had largely subsided by early March, market participants said, with outlooks from the US' National Weather Service forecasting warmer than average weather for the first half of March.

But US propane inventories fell for a 23rd consecutive week over the seven days to 21 March, dropping to 43.2mn bl (3.48mn t), their lowest since 29 April 2022, EIA data show. The latest stockdraw was largely because of stronger US exports, which offset weaker domestic demand. Propane exports averaged 1.91mn b/d (4.7mn t/month) in March, up from 1.83mn b/d in February, while domestic sales fell to 1.21mn b/d from 1.45mn b/d.

Propane's value relative to crude reached a three-year high of 59.2pc by the end of February as strong heating demand tightened supply in the first half of the month and market participants appeared to cover short positions as it neared its end. Fading interest in prompt supply in March led prices to largely move in lockstep with crude until mid-month, but prices remained strong on tight supply and rose later in the month as buyers returned, peaking at 94.75¢/USG, or 57.6pc of Nymex WTI crude, on 24 March. As a result, propane will enter the summer off-season from its strongest quarter relative to crude in three years.

US propane exports could remain high in April on strong petrochemical demand in China given rising production margins and delayed purchases from earlier uncertainty regarding US tariffs. But prices historically ease during the off-season and prompt Mont Belvieu backwardation suggests they could begin to fall soon.

Mont Belvieu propane price, US propane stocks

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16/05/25

Trump says US will soon set new tariff rates

Washington, 16 May (Argus) — The US will unilaterally set new tariff rates on imports from select trading partners instead of holding negotiations over import tax levels, President Donald Trump said today. In the next 2-3 weeks "we'll be telling people what they will be paying to do business in the US," Trump told a group of US and UAE business executives in Abu Dhabi today. Trump contended that more than 150 US trading partners have expressed interest in negotiating with his administration, adding that "you're not able to see that many countries." Trump's administration since 5 April imposed a 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every US trading partner — with the notable exception of Canada, Mexico and Russia. Trump paused his so-called "reciprocal tariffs" until 8 July, nominally to give his administration time to negotiate with foreign countries subject to those punitive rates. The reciprocal tariffs would have added another 10pc on top of his baseline tariff for imports from the EU, while the cumulative rate would have been as high as 69pc on imports from Vietnam. Trump in April suggested that 200 deals with foreign trade partners were in the works. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has said the US is only negotiating with the top 18 trading partners. The trade "deals" clinched by the Trump administration so far merely set out terms of negotiations for agreements to be negotiated at a later date. The US-UK preliminary deal would keep the US tariff rate on imports from the UK at 10pc, while providing a quota for UK-manufactured cars and, possibly, for steel and aluminum. The US-UK document, concluded on 9 May, explicitly states that it "does not constitute a legally binding agreement." The US-China understanding, reached on 12 May, went further by rolling back some of the punitive tariff rates but left larger trade issues to be resolved at a later date. The Trump administration would keep in place a 20pc extra tariff imposed on imports from China in February-March and a 10pc baseline reciprocal tariff imposed in April. The US will pause its additional 24pc reciprocal tariff on imports from China until 10 August. Conversely, China will keep in place tariffs of 10-15pc on US energy commodity imports that it imposed on 4 February, and 10-15pc tariffs on US agricultural imports, imposed in March. It will maintain a 10pc tariff on all imports from the US that was imposed in April, but will pause an additional 24pc tariff on all US imports until 10 August. These rates are on top of baseline import tariffs that the US and China were charging before January 2025. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

France consults on expanded biofuels mandate

15/05/25

France consults on expanded biofuels mandate

London, 15 May (Argus) — France has opened consultation on the transposition of part of the recast renewable energy directive (RED III) into national law, which would replace the current system with a new one called "incentive for the reduction of the carbon intensity of fuels" (IRICC). The proposal introduces two separate sets of requirements for transport fuels. The first is for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, broken down by transport sectors — road, aviation, maritime, LPG and natural gas for vehicles, which could be CNG or LNG (see table). In the current draft, the GHG reduction target for the road sector will start at 5.9pc in 2026, rising to 10.6pc in 2030 and 18.7pc in 2035. For aviation, the target starts at 2.5pc in 2026, rising to 5.8pc in 2030 and 18.8pc in 2035. The GHG mandate levels include a gradual phasing-in of new fuel sectors – river and maritime fuels, fuel gasses, and aviation. To meet the overall RED III target of 14.5pc emissions reduction by 2030, the national French target includes the biofuels mandates, a share for rail transport, and a share or private vehicle charging. The second set of requirements is a renewable fuel requirement by energy content, which is broken down by fuel type — diesel, gasoline, LPG and natural gas fuels and marine fuel (see table). The blending requirements for diesel start at 9pc in 2026, rising to 11.4pc in 2030 and 16pc in 2035. For gasoline, the mandates start at 9.5pc in 2026, rising to 10.5pc in 2030 and 14.5pc in 2035. Finally, the proposal includes a set of sub-mandates for advanced fuels and renewable hydrogen . The advanced biofuels mandate would start at 0.7pc in 2026, rising to 1.95pc in 2030 and 2.6pc in 2035. Users of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) would not be subject to the advanced sub-mandate. In feedstock restrictions, the crop cap will rise to 7pc from 6.2pc in 2030 and 2035, while the limit for fuels made from feedstocks found in Annex IX-B of RED will be at 0.6pc in 2026, 0.7pc in 2030 and 1pc in 2035 for diesel and petrol. Aviation fuel will not have a IX-B cap until 2030, and from then it will be 6pc. Mandate compliance would be managed by a certificate system through the CarbuRe registry, with a compliance deadline of 1 March the following year. Public electric vehicle charging would also generate tickets, although the amount of tickets generated by charging light passenger vehicles would be reduced from 2031 to reach 50pc in 2035. Renewable hydrogen used in transport would also generate tickets counting towards the hydrogen sub-quota and reduce the overall GHG savings requirement. Public charging stations will start generating fewer tickets for electric passenger vehicles from 2031 to 50pc by 2035. France is also considering steep penalties for non-compliance, at €700/t CO2 not avoided for the GHG reduction requirement and at €40/GJ for the fuel targets. The penalty for not meeting hydrogen and advanced fuel sub-targets would be doubled, at €80/GJ. The consultation is open for comments until 10 June. By Simone Burgin Proposed GHG reduction by transport sector % 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Road and non-road diesel 5.9 7.1 8.3 9.5 10.6 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 Aviation 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.9 5.8 8.4 10.8 13.3 15.9 18.7 RFNBO sub-target (% en.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 Maritime 2.5 3.25 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.5 RFNBO sub-target (% en.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 LPG and natural gas fuels 0.0 0.0 2.7 6.3 10.6 13.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 18.7 DGEC Proposed energy content mandate by fuel type % (en.) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Diesel 9.0 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.9 16.0 Petrol 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 14.5 Natural gas fuels 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 21.0 LPG 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 19.0 21.0 Marine fuel 2.9 3.8 4.7 5.9 7.1 8.2 9.4 11.8 14.1 17.1 DGEC Proposed caps and sub-targets % (en.) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Feedstock caps Crop feedstocks 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Annex IX-B feedstocks* 0.6 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 1.0 Cat. 3 tallow 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Tall oil 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.2 Fuel sub-targets Advanced feedstocks 0.7 0.95 1.25 1.6 1.95 2.0 2.1 2.25 2.4 2.6 RFNBOs/Renewable hydrogen 0.05 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 *For diesel and petrol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Braskem Idesa Mexico terminal to feed cracker

14/05/25

Q&A: Braskem Idesa Mexico terminal to feed cracker

Mexico City, 14 May (Argus) — The new ethane storage terminal owned 50:50 by Brazilian-Mexican JV Braskem Idesa and the Netherlands-based Advario will be fully operational by mid-July, when the Etileno XXI cracker returns from a full-stop maintenance program, said Cleantho Leite, chief executive of Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM), in an interview with Argus. Edited highlights follow. What does the new terminal represent for Braskem after years of limited ethane supply? TQPM solves a long-standing ethane supply shortage in Mexico, which remains one of the largest ethane consumers in the region. Under the previous supply contract with Pemex, we did not have full supply. It was like having an F1 car with only 70pc of its fuel — eventually, we would run out of supply before even completing the race. Now, thanks to this terminal, Braskem can import the ethane it needs from the US to ensure consistent operations. Of course, we will continue buying from Pemex whenever possible, as its ethane remains the most cost-effective solution. But with this infrastructure in place, we are no longer tied to a single supply source. When will the terminal begin operating at full capacity? We are currently in pre-operational stages, and commercial operations are expected to begin by late May. Then, the Braskem complex will enter its scheduled maintenance shutdown. Once it resumes in mid-July, we will begin transitioning to full utilization of the terminal. The facility is fully capable of covering up to 100pc of Braskem's demand. In fact, it was designed with a 25pc buffer — excess capacity that could support future expansions. The equipment is ready, and whether we go from 75pc to 100pc in 15 days or in a month will depend entirely on Braskem's operating strategy. What is going to happen with the ethane Pemex no longer uses? For now, I do not see Pemex's own complexes significantly increasing their consumption of ethane. It is not like they will double their intake overnight. At least during 2025, Pemex is still in the process of reactivating its own crackers, so that volume will remain available to Braskem. If Pemex eventually requires more supply, it has its own import terminal. Alternatively, it could request capacity from TQPM if needed. Also, Braskem has long-term contracts that allow flexibility in adjusting volumes. If there is unused ethane in a given month, we can resell it to other locations. That has always been part of our strategy. The Braskem group, through Braskem Trading and Shipping, has consistently found alternatives for any surplus. Do you foresee any regulatory or permitting issues under the new legal framework in Mexico? No. We already hold all relevant permits from the now-defunct energy regulator CRE, which are now under the authority of the new CNE. That means no additional permits are required for the terminal under the new framework. Furthermore, the open-access guidelines established by the CRE are still valid and will be used by the CNE to issue and manage permits. The only other authorizations we need are from customs, which have not hindered pre-operations. Historically, the CRE reviewed transportation tariffs every five years, and we expect the CNE will follow the same regulatory schedule. What is the outlook for Braskem's crackers in Brazil regarding a transition to ethane? In Brazil, Braskem currently operates four crackers — three based on naphtha and one, in Rio de Janeiro, on ethane. The company is studying a broader shift toward ethane to reduce dependence on naphtha. Shipments to Brazil would follow a similar model to what we are doing in Mexico, with contracts signed with US suppliers. Our Salvador Bahia plant already receives ethane occasionally, using vessels that take roughly 12 days to arrive. Mexico has a geographical advantage — just two days away from US ethane. What are the long-term plans for TQPM? Our immediate focus is stable operation and efficiency. Long term, the terminal is well located in the Interoceanic Corridor and could serve future industrial projects. We have space and docking infrastructure to add tanks for chemicals, ammonia or propane. Nothing is confirmed yet, but in 3–4 years we expect opportunities to emerge. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Naphtha no longer competitive feedstock: Braskem

12/05/25

Naphtha no longer competitive feedstock: Braskem

Sao Paulo, 12 May (Argus) — Brazil-based petrochemical producer Braskem is pursuing a strategic shift in polymers production by favoring natural gas liquid (NGL) feedstocks and moving away from naphtha. Naphtha is no longer a competitive feedstock in the petrochemical sector, driving the need for greater flexibility in raw material sourcing, chief executive Roberto Ramos said Monday on the company's first-quarter earnings call. The transition to lighter feedstocks is part of a broader initiative to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness amid evolving global petrochemical dynamics, Ramos said. The company's plan focuses on increasing the use of ethane and propane as primary feedstocks in Mexico and Brazil. In Mexico, Braskem has inaugurated an ethane import terminal, which will provide a stable supply to its operations. The facility has the capacity to store 80,000 b/d of ethane, while the polyethylene (PE) plant processes 66,000 b/d. This surplus storage has prompted considerations for a new PE unit in Mexico to maximize the available feedstock. In Brazil, Braskem aims to reduce reliance on naphtha-based PE production by integrating more natural gas-derived inputs. The company is evaluating projects to utilize feedstocks sourced from shale gas extracted in Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation. The petrochemical complex in Rio Grande do Sul, which operates with a mixture of naphtha and natural gas, is among the facilities targeted for increased gas utilization. Braskem's Rio de Janeiro facility is also undergoing expansion of its gas-based assets, adding two new furnaces that crack ethane and propane to increase capacity to 700,000 t/yr. This increased production is anticipated to lower unit production costs and improve profitability. The move to gas-based production is expected to optimize operations and align Braskem's facilities with cost-effective supply chains, Ramos said. The shift comes as global trade dynamics continue to influence raw material availability. While US-China trade agreements have temporarily eased tariff pressures, Braskem is trying to position itself to navigate long-term supply chain uncertainties by diversifying its production inputs. Ramos has also indicated potential investments in ethanol dehydration technology, which would allow select facilities to convert ethanol into ethylene, further supporting PE production with an alternative renewable feedstock. Production and sales Braskem said its first-quarter domestic resin sales fell by 4pc from the same period in 2024, but sales were little changed from the prior quarter. Domestic resin sales totalled 807,000 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, down from 839,000t a year earlier. Resin sales volumes remained in line with the fourth quarter last year, but the company highlighted a quarter-on-quarter increase in PE and polypropylene (PP) sales volumes of 2pc and 3pc, respectively, offset by a 16pc reduction in PVC sales. In Mexico, Braskem Idesa's PE sales fell by 11pc from the same period in 2024 and by 5pc quarter-on-quarter, as the company is looking to manage inventory ahead of a planned maintenance shutdown in the second quarter. The plant utilization rate reached 79pc, rising from the fourth quarter on higher ethane availability through the Fast Track solution. But utilization fell by four percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reduced supply of ethane from Mexico's Pemex. Braskem posted a first-quarter profit of $114mn, rebounding from a loss of $273mn a year earlier and a loss of $967mn in the fourth quarter last year. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Polish seaborne LPG imports rise on Russia embargo

07/05/25

Polish seaborne LPG imports rise on Russia embargo

The EU ban on some Russian imports led to higher utilisation of Poland's Baltic Sea terminals, writes Waldemar Jaszczyk London, 7 May (Argus) — Polish seaborne LPG imports surged in the first quarter as the country's Baltic Sea terminals became the market's main supply route following the EU's ban on Russian propane-butane mix and propane arrivals. But the growth was capped by reduced re-exports to Ukraine, softening domestic demand and more butane arriving from Russia. The four Baltic Sea terminals received 320,000t of LPG in January-March, up from 282,000t a year earlier, Kpler data show. European LPG distributor SHV's 900,000 t/yr Gdansk facility received 181,000t, and the Alpetrol-run 420,000 t/yr Gdynia terminal took 89,000t, up by 26pc and 37pc, respectively. Deliveries to state-owned fuel supplier Orlen Paliwa's 250,000 t/yr Szczecin terminal rose by 24pc to 37,000t but were below the 50,000-60,000 t/yr seen in previous years given modernisation works. The firm plans to raise Szczecin throughputs by 50pc to 400,000 t/yr by mid-2025. These offset a decline in imports to petrochemical producer Azoty's 437,000 t/yr propane dehydrogenation (PDH) complex in Police by more than a half to 19,000t. Azoty is negotiating a sale of the plant to Polish oil firm Orlen as it looks to cut debt accrued largely to develop it. The EU embargo on Russian LPG, which took effect on 20 December, boosted seaborne intake by forcing Polish importers to shift their supply routes to northwest Europe. Propane and propane-butane mix accounted for over 90pc of Russia's LPG exports to Poland, while normal butane and isobutane, which are not sanctioned, took the balance. Russia was the key supplier to Poland historically, with a 43pc share of all imports in 2024 at 1mn t/yr, according to Polish LPG association POGP. But weaker import demand as a result of stockbuilding prior to the embargo's start and reduced re-exports to Ukraine, which has shifted its supply routes to Danube river ports in the south, limited the increase in seaborne arrivals. And rising intakes of pure normal butane and isobutane from Russia by rail, which is then blended with propane and sold as autogas, has also weighed on Baltic imports. Russian butane deliveries averaged around 30,000 t/month in the first quarter compared with the more typical 80,000 t/month prior to sanctions. Poland seaborne LPG imports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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