US states including New York sue Trump over tariffs

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
23/04/25

A coalition of 12 states including New York is suing the administration of President Donald Trump for imposing "illegal" tariffs that threaten to raise inflation and derail economic growth.

The lawsuit, filed by attorneys general from the 12 states, argues that Congress has not granted the president the authority to impose the tariffs and the administration violated the law by imposing them through executive orders, social media posts, and agency orders.

"President Trump's reckless tariffs have skyrocketed costs for consumers and unleashed economic chaos across the country," said New York governor Kathy Hochul (D). "New York is standing up to fight back against the largest federal tax hike in American history."

The lawsuit alleges the tariffs will increase unemployment, threaten wages by slowing economic growth and push up the cost of key goods from electronics to building materials.

The lawsuit, which was filed in the United States Court of International Trade, seeks a court order halting the tariffs.

By Stephen Cunningham

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20/05/25

US gas market expected to tighten in 2026

New York, 20 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and analysts are forecasting a tighter market in 2026 than previously expected because of rising LNG exports, a slowdown in crude production and a reluctance on the part of gas-focused producers to ramp up supply. The market has already tightened this year as cold winter weather balanced the previously oversupplied domestic market and Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG terminal ramped up faster than expected. Nymex gas delivery for 2026 at the US benchmark Henry Hub settled Tuesday at $4.30/mmBtu, up from $3.91/mmBtu at the start of the year. US LNG exports are expected to rise by 19pc to 14.2 Bcf/d this year, followed by a 15pc increase to 16.4 Bcf/d in 2026, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts. Meanwhile, tariff-induced economic uncertainty and plans by Opec+ to boost supply have lowered crude prices this year, which will probably throttle growth in the Permian basin, a prolific US oil field in west Texas and southeast New Mexico that accounted for 22pc of US gas supply in 2024. US onshore crude production has likely peaked as activity slows in response to the recent decline in oil prices, Diamondback Energy chief executive officer Travis Stice said earlier this month. US producer Antero Resources this week forecast a 5.5 Bcf/d supply growth shortfall from 2025-26 as producers fail to keep up with booming LNG exports, pipeline sales to Mexico and rising gas-fired power demand. Producers have so far been reluctant to ramp up activity in the Haynesville shale basin of east Texas and northwest Louisiana, the major marginal gas supplier to the US market and a key supplier to the coming wave of new US LNG export terminals, all of which are sited in Texas and Louisiana. Producers' hesitation might be linked to past experience, when they ramped up output for new LNG terminals only for those terminals' in-service dates to get pushed back, contributing to an oversupplied market that depressed prices. Haynesville operators' lack of response to higher gas prices in the first quarter of this year led analyst group Enverus to raise its 2026-30 US gas price forecast to $4/mmBtu. Some producers, including EQT, the second-largest US gas producer by volume, are holding off on locking in the elevated prices for 2026 production with financial derivatives, in part because they want exposure to the possibility of even higher prices. Those producers are "playing a little bit of a dangerous game", according to FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean. If a mild summer or delayed LNG terminal start-ups reverse expectations of a tighter market, producers might enter a weaker market in 2026 having "missed their chance" at more opportunistic hedges, McLean said. US LNG out the window Tudor Pickering Holt last week raised its "2026 base case forecast" for US gas prices from $4/mmBtu to $5/mmBtu. The Houston-based investment bank expects the US gas market to shift to a state of "material undersupply" in 2026, potentially pushing domestic prices so high that the price of producing LNG from US gas would exceed prevailing global LNG prices. Aside from short-term price spikes caused by storms or maintenance events, this would be the first instance of the US gas-to-global LNG price "arbitrage window" closing since pandemic-induced demand destruction caused more than 175 US LNG cargoes to be cancelled from April-November 2020, according to consultancy McKinsey. Energy Aspects head of North American gas David Seduski said he would not rule out the possibility of high US gas prices reducing exports, but that is not his "base case". According to Seduski, Europe is "in such desperate need of gas" that in the absence of some geopolitical development that boosts Russian gas sales to Europe, high US gas prices would probably just spur higher European gas prices and keep US sales to the continent profitable. Henry Hub prices would probably have to exceed $7/mmBtu given current global gas prices for US LNG cargoes to start being cancelled, FactSet's McLean said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell CEO defends 'resilient investment strategy'

20/05/25

Shell CEO defends 'resilient investment strategy'

London, 20 May (Argus) — Shell chief executive Wael Sawan defended the company's "resilient investment strategy" at its annual shareholder meeting today, as directors faced a barrage of questions from climate-focused investors. A resolution calling for more details on Shell's LNG strategy gained over 20pc support, a level consistent with climate-related votes in previous years . But absent this year were the disruptive climate protests that have marked past meetings. This was partly due to Shell's choice of venue, London's Heathrow Airport, which has a five-year High Court injunction banning environmental protests on site. Still, climate-conscious shareholders dominated the discussion. One questioned how Shell could justify expanding oil and gas operations when the IEA's net zero emissions by 2050 scenario suggests no new oil and gas projects are needed. Shell's chairman Andrew Mackenzie responded that the IEA's scenario is just one of many and includes conditional commitments made by governments that may not materialise. "We see a phase of continuing growth, particularly in the use of gas and especially in LNG, that we think is appropriate to invest in," he said. Sawan pointed out that most of the net present value from Shell's oil and gas projects will be realised before 2040, "and so this is a very resilient investment strategy that we are offering our shareholders". He also highlighted that Shell has $20bn of capital invested in low-carbon alternatives such as biofuels, hydrogen and electric vehicle charging. "It is in our interest... to see that market grow," he said. A key focus was Resolution 22, filed by the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility (ACCR), which called on Shell to explain how its LNG strategy aligns with its climate goals. "We believe that shareholders still don't have the information that they need to properly assess the risks associated with this strategy," said the ACCR's Sarah Brewin. The scale of Shell's uncontracted LNG out to 2050 exposes the company and its shareholders to "significant risk should prices fall and demand soften", she said. The company's LNG outlook "is highly optimistic and increasingly out of step with global trends", she added. Shell's board opposed the resolution, arguing that its strategy is based on a range of scenarios — including one exploring the impact of AI on energy demand. Its 2025 LNG Outlook, based on Wood Mackenzie data, forecasts a 60pc rise in global LNG demand by 2040, driven by economic growth in Asia and decarbonisation in heavy industry and transport. While the resolution did not pass, Shell said it will prepare a note within six months detailing its LNG market outlook, its LNG business strategy and how these align with its climate commitments. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Unsold German storage tightens 3Q global LNG balance

20/05/25

Unsold German storage tightens 3Q global LNG balance

London, 20 May (Argus) — A lack of commercial interest in some German storage sites could support European injection demand in the third quarter, when Asian summer demand peaks. Operators are struggling to sell underground storage capacity at the 45TWh Rehden and 11.5TWh Breitbunn sites — probably because the German THE hub's prompt discount to the winter contract is not large enough to cover the reserve price. In Rehden, only 900GWh has been allocated of the 20.5TWh needed to reach the 45pc fill target. A inverted summer 2025-winter 2025-26 spread earlier this year provided no incentive for firms to book space ahead of the storage year, and although the spread normalised last month, it remains too narrow to make some sites attractive. In addition, Rehden is slow-cycling, so capacity holders have less flexibility to react to price movements. That said, these sites would still need be filled at some point this summer to help meet demand in Germany during winter plus EU and German mandates for 1 November. The lack of a commercial incentive to fill storage could prompt the intervention of market area manager THE later in summer, either by subsidising injections — as Italy did in early April — or through direct purchases, as THE did in 2022. THE said on Monday that it currently has no plans to intervene. But an intervention, if any, would probably only take place later in summer, as Rehden injections could start as late as 17 August to reach the 45pc fill target for 1 November. Asian demand Europe's stockbuild has benefited from weak Asian demand, but firms delaying injections to the third quarter are likely to contend with tighter LNG supply as northeast Asian demand peaks. Asian summer imports tend to be at their heaviest in July-August, when high temperatures boost air-conditioning use and power-sector gas burn. LNG imports in China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan in July-August have on average increased by 6.4pc from May-June over the last three years, according to Kpler data, equivalent to 2.2mn t, or 30 LNG cargoes, over the two months. The European delivered discount to the TTF third-quarter contract has already started to narrow on stronger buying interest from Asia, falling to a 45¢/mn Btu discount from an average discount of 52¢/mn Btu the previous week. That said, part of the increase in Asian demand in the third quarter could be offset by weaker consumption from downstream sectors affected by US tariffs. And Asian delivered LNG prices above $11/mn Btu will probably continue to suppress demand from price-sensitive buyers in China and India, reducing competition for uncommitted Atlantic-basin supply. By Isabel Valverde Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

20/05/25

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Libyan crude returns to Asia after one-month hiatus

20/05/25

Libyan crude returns to Asia after one-month hiatus

London, 20 May (Argus) — Libyan crude is once again heading to Asia-Pacific after exports to the region came to a complete halt in April — the first such pause since August 2020, according to Argus tracking data. The Suezmax Sea Sapphire departed Libya's Zueitina port on 15 May with around 1mn bl of light sweet crude bound for Thailand's Ko Sichang terminal, where it is expected to arrive on 26 June, according to Vortexa and Kpler. It marks the first Libyan crude cargo to load for Asia-Pacific since March, and flows to the region averaged 76,000 b/d in the first three months of this year. Despite favourable arbitrage conditions in April — the Brent-Dubai EFS more than halved on the month to 30¢/bl in March when April-loading cargoes were trading — no Libyan crude was loaded for the region last month. Buyers in Asia-Pacific appear to have opted for light sour Caspian CPC Blend instead. Shipments of the Caspian grade to Asia-Pacific hit a two-year high of 541,000 b/d in April, supported by weaker price differentials. But with eastbound arbitrage shipments now less workable, most May and June-loading CPC Blend supplies are heading to Europe, according to traders. This may have prompted Asia-Pacific refiners to turn back to Libyan grades. Thailand has been a regular buyer of Libyan crude, taking 16 cargoes in 2022 and nine in 2023, according to Argus tracking data. The Sea Sapphire is already the third Libyan cargo to load this year, matching the total for the whole of 2024. A second Suezmax cargo of Libyan crude is scheduled to depart Marsa al-Hariga on 27 May and arrive at China's Ningbo port on 24 June, although the fixture remains unconfirmed. Despite renewed interest from Asia-Pacific, Libya's overall crude exports are scheduled to fall by 9pc on the month in May to 1.13mn b/d across its 12 grades, according to provisional loading programmes. By Ellanee Kruck Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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