Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
02/05/25

Shell's Integrated Gas business segment delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, helping the UK major exceed analysts' earnings estimates despite ongoing struggles in its downstream Chemicals and Products business.

Shell reported a first-quarter profit of $4.8bn, down from $7.4bn a year earlier. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, profit was $5.6bn, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.3bn.

Integrated Gas was Shell's top-performing segment, with a profit of $2.8bn, slightly higher than the first quarter of 2024. Production was down by 6.6pc year-on-year at 927,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d), but up 2pc from the previous quarter. Less maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar had a positive impact on production, Shell said. But the company's LNG volumes were affected by unplanned maintenance and weather constraints in Australia, falling to 6.6mn t from 7.6mn t a year earlier.

The Upstream segment posted a profit of $2.1bn, down by 8.5pc on a year earlier but double what it made in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment was hit with a $509mn tax charge related to the UK's Energy Profits Levy in the first quarter, partially offset by gains from asset sales. Production for the segment was slightly down compared to a year earlier at 1.86mn boe/d, partly due to the divestment of Shell's SPDC business in Nigeria.

Overall, Shell's first-quarter production was 2.84mn boe/d, down from 2.91mn boe/d a year earlier but up from 2.82mn boe/d in the previous quarter. Shell expects lower production in the current quarter, ranging from 2.45mn boe/d to 2.71mn boe/d due to maintenance across its Integrated Gas portfolio and the absence of volumes from the SPDC business.

The Chemicals and Products segment reported a $77mn loss for the first quarter, compared to a $1.3bn profit a year earlier. Refinery runs were down by 4.8pc year-on-year, and chemicals sales volumes were marginally lower. Despite persistent low margins in the downstream, Shell noted that refining and chemicals margins improved compared to the fourth quarter.

Shell expects capital spending for 2025 to be within a $20bn-$22bn range, in line with last year's spending. The company is maintaining its dividend at 35.8¢/share and its share buyback programme at $3.5bn a quarter.

By Jon Mainwaring

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18/12/25

Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet

In der ursprünglichen Version wurde die CO2-Abgabe inkorrekt angegeben. Dies wurde sowohl in der Tabelle als auch in der Grafik korrigiert. Hamburg, 18 December (Argus) — Händler bieten B7-Diesel für Januar mit einem Aufpreis von 10 €/100l bis 17 €/100l an, teurer als von Argus berechnet. Das ist der bisher höchste Preisanstieg zum Jahreswechsel, der durch eine Erhöhung der CO2-Abgabe und THG-Quote verursacht wurde. Argus hat einen theoretischen Aufschlag von 8,50 €/100l für B7-Diesel berechnet (siehe Grafik). Ein möglicher Grund für den deutlich höher ausfallenden Aufpreis für B7 ist, dass Händler die THG-Kosten aufgrund anhaltender Unsicherheiten anders berechnen als Argus . Das Bundeskabinett hat am 10. Dezember über die Umsetzung der Erneuerbaren Energien-Direktive (RED III) der EU in deutsches Gesetz abgestimmt. Dadurch herrscht im Markt mehr Klarheit mit Blick auf die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen in 2026. Zuvor dürften die Preisen für das kommende Jahr vor allem durch die Unsicherheit bezüglich der genauen Umsetzung von RED III getrieben worden sein. Die THG-Quote wird 2026 von aktuell 10,6 % auf 12 % steigen, weshalb für das Inverkehrbringen fossiler Kraftstoffe mehr THG-Zertifikate vorgewiesen werden müssen. Bis zur Abstimmung am 10. Dezember gingen Marktteilnehmer davon aus, dass fortschrittliche Kraftstoffe künftig nicht mehr doppelt auf die Erfüllung der THG-Quote angerechnet werden dürfen. Dies hat sich nun bestätigt. Der künftige Wegfall der Doppelanrechnung könnte das Beimischen von Biokraftstoffen attraktiver machen und Preise für sowohl Biokraftstoffe und die Übertragung von THG-Zertifikaten erhöhen. Marktteilnehmer rechnen außerdem mit einem Rückgang der Biokraftstoff-Importe aus Asien, wodurch die Quotenerfüllung und somit auch fossile Kraftstoffe in Deutschland teurer werden könnten. Grund hierfür ist zum einen die geplante Abschaffung der Vertrauensschutzregelung , die Käufer unrechtmäßiger THG-Zertifikate vor Aberkennung schützt. Auch herrschte noch Unsicherheit darüber, wie genau die Unterquote für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe nicht-biogenen Urpsrungs (RFNBOs) — wie etwa e-Fuels und grüner Wasserstoff — gestaltet wird. Ein Entwurf vom November beinhaltete bei Nichterfüllung der RFNBO-Unterquote eine Pönale von etwa 120 €/GJ, statt der zuvor vorgeschlagenen 70 €/GJ. Dies wurde mit der Kabinettssitzung am 10. Dezember ebenfalls bestätigt. Auch bei der Einpreisung der CO2-Abgabe für das nächste Jahr sehen sich Händler weiterhin mit Unklarheiten konfrontiert. Einige Händler verwenden für Kalkulationen aktuell einen CO2-Preis von 68 €/t CO2e. Darüber hinaus wird auch die Unsicherheit bezüglich des Auktionsverfahrens eingepreist, da die Auktionen erst im Sommer beginnen und die konkreten CO2-Kosten bis dahin nicht eindeutig sind. Manche Händler planen daher zusätzliche Rücklagen, um etwaige Nachzahlungen decken zu können. Die CO2-Abgabe wird im kommenden Jahr von einem Festpreismodell bei aktuell 55 €/t CO2e in ein Auktionsverfahren übergeleitet, bei dem der Preis einer Emissionsberechtigung zwischen 55 € und 65 € schwanken kann. Eine Emissionsberechtigung entspricht dabei einer Tonne CO2-Äquivalent. Unternehmen, die bei Auktionen leer ausgehen, können nachträglich Emissionsberechtigungen zum Festpreis von 68 € nachkaufen. Außerdem könnte im Sekundärmarkt für Unternehmen, die nicht an Auktionen teilnehmen, der Preis noch höher liegen. Einige Inverkehrbringer halten sich aufgrund dieser regulatorischen Unklarheiten weiterhin mit der Bekanntgabe von Januarpreisen zurück, was die Unsicherheit im Markt zusätzlich verstärkt. Mit dem Kabinettsbeschluss vom 10. Dezember könnten Händler ihre Preisgestaltung für Januar konkretisieren. Für Heizöl liegen die gemeldeten Aufschläge etwa zwischen 2,50 €/100l bis 4,50 €/100l und stimmen somit ungefähr mit den Berechnungen von Argus überein. Von Marcel Pott CO2-Abgabe je 100l € Kosten pro t CO2 B0/HE B7 E5 E10 45 € 12.04 11.22 10.26 9.73 55 € 14.72 13.72 12.54 11.90 65 € 17.40 16.21 14.82 14.06 68 € 18.20 16.96 15.50 14.71 *B7 mit 6,8 l FAME; E5 mit 4,8 l Ethanol und E10 mit 9,66l Ethanol THG- Erfüllungskosten je 100l € B0 B7 E5 E10 2025 9,13 9,70 6,83 6,74 2026 16,33 14,99 11,68 10,72 *Erfüllung der THG-Quote durch Blending und Zukauf von Zertifikaten, Erfüllung des RFNBO-Mandats durch Pönale Kumulierte Kosten THG-Quote und CO2 Abgabe Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

18/12/25

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

London, 18 December (Argus) — UK-listed upstream producer Ithaca Energy has begun the approval process for a development in the North Sea, the first since the government softened its approach to the region. Ithaca has submitted a development summary and environmental statement for the Fotla field to the offshore regulator Opred. It outlines a two-well tie-back to the Britannia platform, which processes liquids from the Greater Britannia Area, including Ithaca's Alder field. Ithaca indicates that if the process is successful, drilling will begin in the first half of 2027, with first oil in the final quarter of that year. This is the first submission of an offshore proposal since the UK government published its 'North Sea Future Plan' alongside its budget in late November. That enables "limited oil and gas production in areas that are already part of an existing field, or in areas adjacent to already licensed fields, linked via a tieback, to help ensure they remain economically viable". Developers are not permitted to explore for oil and gas at these sites, and a ban remains on new oil and gas licensing. London's stance on North Sea development has delayed the Rosebank project, in which Ithaca holds a 20pc stake, and the company's west of Shetland Cambo project. Ithaca expects its production to average 119,000-125,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) this year. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

18/12/25

Viewpoint: Japan's hybrid EV use keeps gasoline in mix

Tokyo, 18 December (Argus) — Japan's gasoline consumption will continue falling because of its decarbonisation drive, but the country's gasoline consumption is unlikely to reach zero as gasoline-powered cars and hybrid gasoline-electric vehicles (HEVs) account for a vast majority of newly registered passenger cars. Japan's gasoline sales declined at least over 2016-24, with the exception of a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03pc in 2022, data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) show. The country's gasoline sales totalled 330mn bl (904,100 b/d) in 2016, falling to below 280mn bl (767,100 b/d) in 2024. The country's transport sector accounted for 19.2pc of total CO2 emissions in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year, according to Japan's environment ministry. Half of the transport sector's CO2 emissions came from gasoline in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Tokyo renewed its global warming countermeasures plan in February 2025, which reiterated its target of having all new car sales be "electrified vehicles" by 2035 and to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions through the vehicle lifecycle by 2050, in efforts to abate emissions. But these "electrified vehicles" do not only refer to fully electric-powered EVs nor fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) but also include gasoline-consuming HEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This means that Japanese passenger car owners will likely remain dependent on gasoline, even as gasoline consumption declines, given that Japan's preference for hybrids is likely to sustain its momentum for the foreseeable future. The country's gasoline requirement will fall by 2.4pc to 260mn bl (712,300 b/d) in the April 2026-March 2027 fiscal year, compared with the 2025-26 level, based on Japan's trade and industry ministry Meti's outlook. This downtrend is expected to continue by declines of 2.1-2.5 pc/yr at least until 2029-30, largely because of higher fuel efficiency and wider use of HEVs, Meti said. The number of newly registered passenger cars, including imported cars, totalled slightly below 2.4mn units over January-November 2025, data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA) show. Out of this total, gasoline-consuming HEVs accounted for 60pc, and gasoline cars hold a 32pc share. Gasoline-powered cars and HEVs have jointly accounted for around 90pc at least since 2020. The share of HEVs in newly registered cars has also grown consistently every year, from 37.1pc in 2020 to 61.1pc in 2024, mostly replacing the share of gasoline cars, while the share of EVs has stalled at 0.6-1.7pc of the total of registered units every year over the same period, data from the JADA show. "The hybrid trend is likely to remain strong going forward. Compared with the time when it seemed the global shift to EVs would happen decisively and rapidly, the momentum now appears to have slowed somewhat," Japan's trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said at an interview with reporters, including Argus , in October. The shift towards EVs has not been as strong as expected, which could have benefited gasoline car makers. But US tariffs on Japanese automobiles likely eroded the profitability of Japanese automakers, with 15pc of their domestic car output exported to the US in 2024, according to Meti. The US tariff rate was lowered to 15pc from 27.5pc in September, but is still far higher than 2.5pc, the rate before US president Donald Trump's additional 25pc automobile tariff took effect in April. To support Japanese automakers given the challenging tariff environment, Tokyo could freeze its environmental performance tax — a levy of 0-3pc — imposed on car owners at the point of acquisition depending on automobile features, such as fuel efficiency. This move could pave the way for gasoline-powered vehicles to regain momentum or pose obstacles to the expansion of EV cars' market share in the coming years. By Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

17/12/25

BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

New York, 17 December (Argus) — BP appointed Woodside Energy chief executive officer Meg O'Neill as its next chief executive effective from next April. O'Neill will replace Murray Auchincloss, who has decided to step down on 18 December after more than three decades with the London-based oil major. O'Neill transformed Woodside into the biggest energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange after taking over as chief executive in 2021, according to BP. While at Woodside, she also oversaw the acquisition of BHP Petroleum International. O'Neill also spent more than two decades at ExxonMobil earlier in her career. "Her proven track record of driving transformation, growth, and disciplined capital allocation makes her the right leader for BP," said Albert Manifold, chairman of the company's board of directors. Carol Howle, executive vice president, supply, trading & shipping of BP, will serve as interim chief executive until O'Neill takes over. Auchincloss will also serve in an advisory role until December 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. BP scaled back ambitious low-carbon goals earlier this year with Auchincloss conceding that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced." The company raised its 2030 target for oil and gas production as part of a "fundamental reset" of strategy that also entailed a cut in renewable energy investments. O'Neill's appointment follows a search process overseen by the board, with the help of an independent recruitment firm, as part of the company's long-term succession planning. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump doubles down on Venezuela oil threat

17/12/25

Trump doubles down on Venezuela oil threat

Washington, 17 December (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Wednesday doubled down on his threat to blockade Venezuelan oil shipments unless Caracas offers compensation for oil assets expropriated years ago. Democratic lawmakers on the same day forced the House of Representatives to schedule a vote on resolutions that would prohibit Trump from using military force against Venezuela without explicit authorization from Congress. "They took all of our oil from not that long ago, and we want it back," Trump told reporters on Thursday. "They illegally took it." Trump's domestic policy adviser Stephen Miller on Wednesday said that "American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela". Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, only to partially reverse course in the 1990s by inviting US and other foreign oil companies to participate in joint ventures with state-owned PdV. Former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez in 2007 ordered PdV to change the business terms of operations in joint ventures. Chevron and some European companies accepted these terms. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips did not, eventually winning awards in international tribunals and US courts for the expropriation of their assets in Venezuela. ConocoPhillips holds the largest claim for expropriated assets, at $12bn. That claim is about to be partially satisfied as a US court has ordered the auction of PdV-owned US refining company Citgo. It was not clear what prompted the change in the stated rationale of the US campaign of pressure against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Trump and US officials until this week described the campaign in terms of curbing the seaborne flow of drugs and putting an end to migration from Venezuela, even though Trump previously mentioned possibly pushing for regime change in Caracas. Trump in a social media post on Tuesday night declared a blockade of most Venezuelan seaborne oil shipments. "We're not gonna let anybody going through that shouldn't be going through," Trump said on Wednesday. The Maduro government denounced Trump's threat and appealed to the UN. It is not clear if Caracas can counteract the blockade. Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba already have stopped and cargoes to other destinations were grinding to a halt, following the 10 December seizure of a Cuba-bound Venezuelan oil tanker by the US Coast Guard. US House debate The House of Representatives later on Wednesday will vote on two separate resolutions to prohibit the use of US military force against Venezuela without congressional approval. Debate on the House floor Tuesday afternoon showed a division largely along partisan lines, indicating the resolutions are unlikely to pass. Republican lawmakers pushed back against the resolution, casting the US operation as an extension of the administration's domestic counter-narcotics efforts — a line the White House had advanced until Wednesday. "Congressional authorization is not required to carry out precise, limited strikes," House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Brian Mast (R-FLorida) said. "My colleagues did not object when prior presidents conducted military operations in Yemen, in Libya, and Syria," Mast said. The US military operation near Venezuela "isn't about drugs — it's about regime change, and it's about oil," said congressman Gregory Meeks (D-New York), who sponsored one of the resolutions. "Trump is provoking a new war right in our backyard and threatening to destabilize an entire region", Meeks said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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