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Mexico's manufacturing contraction deepens in April

  • Spanish Market: Agriculture, Metals, Oil products
  • 05/05/25

Activity in Mexico's manufacturing sector shrank for a 13th straight month in April, with declines accelerating in production and new orders, according to a survey of purchasing managers.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 45.5 in April from 46.9 in March, finance executives' association IMEF said, moving further below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

US tariffs imposed since March are adding pressure to Mexico's manufacturing sector, which makes up about a fifth of the national economy. The auto industry, responsible for roughly 18pc of manufacturing GDP, may be the hardest hit by the new measures, including a 25pc tariff on auto parts that took effect 3 May.

Mexico remains the top exporter of vehicles to the US, supplying 23pc of all US auto imports in 2024.

But IMEF said tariffs compound broader, mostly domestic headwinds, including reduced public spending and investor uncertainty stemming from sweeping legal and regulatory reforms. New investment has stalled since late 2024.

The PMI index for new orders fell by 2.5 points to 41.8, the lowest since June 2020. Production dropped by 2.5 points to 43.6, while employment fell by 0.6 point to 46.4. New orders and production have now been in contraction for 14 straight months, and employment for 15.

Inventories saw the steepest drop in April, falling 4 points to 46.3 — sliding from expansion to contraction — as manufacturers accelerated shipments after tariff implementation dates were confirmed.

IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI — which covers services and commerce — remained in contraction for a fifth consecutive month but edged up by 0.5 points to 49.0 in April.

Within that index, new orders rose by 0.6 points to 48.1, employment increased 1.3 points to 48.6 and production held steady at 47.5.


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16/06/25

German gasoil demand up on Middle East conflict

German gasoil demand up on Middle East conflict

Hamburg, 16 June (Argus) — Gasoil demand in Germany has risen sharply following Israel's attack on Iran in the early hours of 13 June. The attack triggered a sharp increase in crude and gasoil futures and prompted German traders to buy ahead of possible further price rises. The rise in demand coincides with relatively low import availability into northern German ports, largely because of reduced arrivals from countries east of the Suez Canal. The arbitrage window from east of Suez to northwest Europe was closed from early May to the first week of June, limiting flows into the region at a time when German demand had been weakening. Northern German ports received 67,000 b/d of diesel from the US and the Netherlands during 1–13 June — a daily average increase from May, but still 44pc lower than in April. Ice Brent crude futures rose by more than 10pc at one point on 13 June, while Ice gasoil futures jumped by up to $60/t. The price surge fed through to the German market, where national average prices rose by nearly €3.30/100 litres for heating oil, €3.20/100l for diesel and €2.40/100l for gasoline. Domestic traders responded by stepping up purchases ahead of the weekend, anticipating further price increases should the conflict between Israel and Iran escalate. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Israel’s Haifa refinery hit in Iran missile attack


15/06/25
15/06/25

Israel’s Haifa refinery hit in Iran missile attack

London, 15 June (Argus) — Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery has suffered damage from an Iranian missile attack but remains operational, operator Bazan said on Sunday. "The refining facilities continue to operate, while some downstream facilities at the complex have been shut down," it said. Bazan said that the attack damaged pipelines and transmission lines between the facilities in the complex in a "localised manner." The damage to the refinery marks the first direct Iranian attack on Israel's energy infrastructure since the latest round of hostilities began on Friday, 13 June. They also follow Israeli drone attacks on two gas treatment facilities in southern Iran. Iran's oil ministry said today that Israel had hit an oil storage facility in Tehran's northwestern Shahran district late on Saturday. This caused a blaze that spread to "two or three" tanks storing oil products, the Tehran fire department said. A second depot in the district of Rey, in southern Tehran, was also targeted, resulting in another fire. The oil ministry said the fires at both locations have been brought under control. Iran's oil minister, Mohsen Paknejad made a visit to the Rey depot on Sunday to survey the damage and the ongoing restoration work. Israel has temporarily taken two key gas fields offline as a precautionary measure due to the conflict. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump approves Nippon Steel’s acquisition of USS


14/06/25
14/06/25

Trump approves Nippon Steel’s acquisition of USS

Tokyo, 14 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump approved Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel's $15bn acquisition plan of US Steel in his executive order that reversed his predecessor's decision to block the deal, the Whitehouse announced late on 13 June. The threat to national security for the US arising as a result of the deal can be adequately mitigated by entering into a National Security Agreement (NSA) with Nippon and US Steel, Trump said in a statement. Former US president Joe Biden on 3 January rejected the proposed merger plan, citing national security concerns with a Japanese firm owning a major US steel maker. The firms signed the NSA with the US government yesterday, following Trump's executive order, Nippon Steel told Argus , leaving no major obstacles to proceed with the transaction. "We thank President Trump and his Administration for their bold leadership and strong support for our historic partnership. This partnership will bring a massive investment," the firms said. The partnership means an acquisition of US Steel, the representative of Nippon Steel who spoke to Argus reiterated, rejecting speculation that the approved investment plan does not entail a merger bid. Nippon Steel will make a $11bn investment in US Steel by 2028 as part of the requirements by the NSA, according to the Japanese firm. It will start investing in the US this year after necessary regulatory approvals were granted, the company told Argus . The Japanese steel producer will also issue a "golden share" to the US government as required under the NSA, according to the White House. A "golden share" typically grants its holder the right to veto decisions by the firm's board members or its majority shareholders. But Nippon Steel told Argus that the company freedomto run US Steel is guaranteed, rejecting speculation that the US government would retain full control of the business. A "golden share" can take a variety of forms, the representative told Argus , although the Japanese firm did not disclose if the White House is granted veto power. The Trump's executive order is likely to settle the 18-month approval process that faced a number of challenges including legal action by the firms against the Biden administration and opposition to the deal by the United Steelworkers (USW) union. Nippon Steel persists in the US market because it is the most prominent steel market among the advanced economies with robust demand for high quality steel products, said Eiji Hashimoto, chief executive of Nippon Steel in January . The acquisition of US Steel is the only promising solution to strengthen the steel industries in both countries, Hashimoto added. The Japanese steelmaker and US Steel agreed on the acquisition in part because the collaboration would enhance US Steel's ability to serve automobile, construction and other industries including emerging energy transition sectors, according to the firms. Nippon Steel is among the top producers of electrical steel essential to electric vehicles production, according to the Japanese producer. Nippon Steel is targeting India, the US and southeast Asia as strategic regions to achieve 100mn t/yr of crude steel production globally as part of its mid- to long-term strategy. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update


13/06/25
13/06/25

EPA proposes record US biofuel mandates: Update

Updates with new pricing, reactions throughout. New York, 13 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration today proposed requiring record biofuel blending into the US fuel supply over the next two years, including unexpectedly strong quotas for biomass-based diesel. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposal, which still must be finalized, projects oil refiners will need to blend 5.61bn USG of biomass-based diesel to comply with requirements in 2026 and 5.86bn USG in 2027. Those estimates — while uncertain — would be a 67pc increase in 2026 and a 75pc increase in 2027 from this year's 3.35bn USG requirement, above what most industry groups had sought. The proposal alone is likely to boost biofuel production, which has been down to start the year as biorefineries have struggled to grapple with uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and higher import tariffs. The National Oilseed Processors Association said hiking the biomass-based diesel mandate to the proposed levels would bring "idled capacity back online" and spur "additional investments" in the biofuel supply chain. The EPA proposal also would halve Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits generated from foreign biofuels and biofuels produced from foreign feedstocks, a major change that could increase US crop demand and hurt renewable diesel plants that source many of their inputs from abroad. US farm groups have lamented refiners' rising use of Chinese used cooking oil and Brazilian tallow to make renewable diesel, and EPA's proposal if finalized would sharply reduce the incentive to do so. Biofuel imports from producers with major refineries abroad, notably including Neste, would also be far less attractive. The proposal asks for comment, however, on a less restrictive policy that would only treat fuels and feedstocks from "a subset of countries" differently. And EPA still expects a substantial role for imported product regardless, estimating in a regulatory impact analysis that domestic fuels from domestic feedstocks will make up about 62pc of biomass-based diesel supply next year. The Renewable Fuel Standard program requires US oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. One USG of corn ethanol generates one RIN, but more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel can earn more. In total, the rule would require 24.02bn RINs to be retired next year and 24.46bn RINs in 2027. That includes a specific 7.12bn RIN mandate for biomass-based diesel in 2026 and 7.5bn in 2027, and an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat from prior years at 15bn RINs. EPA currently sets biomass-based diesel mandates in physical gallons but is proposing a change to align with how targets for other program categories work. US soybean oil futures surged following the release of the EPA proposal, closing at their highest price in more than four weeks, and RIN credits rallied similarly on bullish expectations for higher biofuel demand and domestic feedstock prices. D4 biomass-diesel credits traded as high as 117.75¢/RIN, up from a 102.5¢/RIN settle on Thursday, while D6 conventional credits traded as high as 110¢/RIN. Bids for both retreated later in the session while prices still closed the day higher. Proposed targets are less aspirational for the cellulosic biofuel category, where biogas generates most credits. EPA proposes lowering the 2025 mandate to 1.19bn RINs, down from from 1.38bn RINs previously required, with 2026 and 2027 targets proposed at 1.30bn RINs and 1.36bn RINs, respectively. In a separate final rule today, EPA cut the 2024 cellulosic mandate to 1.01bn RINs from 1.09bn previously required, a smaller cut than initially proposed, and made available special "waiver" credits refiners can purchase at a fixed price to comply. Small refinery exemptions The proposal includes little clarity on EPA's future policy around program exemptions, which small refiners can request if they claim blend mandates will cause them disproportionate economic hardship. EPA predicted Friday that exemptions for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years could total anywhere from zero to 18bn USG of gasoline and diesel and provided no clues as to how it will weigh whether individual refiners, if any, deserve program waivers. The rule does suggest EPA plans to continue a policy from past administrations of estimating future exempted volumes when calculating the percentage of biofuels individual refiners must blend in the future, which would effectively require those with obligations to shoulder more of the burden to meet high-level 2026 and 2027 targets. Notably though, the proposal says little about how EPA is weighing a backlog of more than a hundred requests for exemptions stretching from 2016 to 2025. An industry official briefed on Friday ahead of the rule's release said Trump administration officials were "coy" about their plans for the backlog. Many of these refiners had already submitted RINs to comply with old mandates and could push for some type of compensation if granted retroactive waivers, making this part of the program especially hard to implement. And EPA would invite even more legal scrutiny if it agreed to biofuel groups' lobbying to "reallocate" newly exempted volumes from many years prior into future standards. EPA said it plans to "communicate our policy regarding [exemption] petitions going forward before finalization of this rule". Industry groups expect the agency will try to conclude the rule-making before November. The proposed mandates for 2026-2027 will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed as regulators weigh new data on biofuel production and food and fuel prices. Once the program updates are finalized, lawsuits are inevitable. A federal court is still weighing the legality of past mandates, and the Supreme Court is set to rule this month on the proper court venue for litigating small refinery exemption disputes. Environmentalists are likely to probe the agency's ultimate assessment of costs and benefits, including the climate costs of encouraging crop-based fuels. Oil companies could also have a range of complaints, from the record-high mandates to the creative limits on foreign feedstocks. American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers senior vice president Geoff Moody noted that EPA was months behind a statutory deadline for setting 2026 mandates and said it would "strongly oppose any reallocation of small refinery exemptions" if finalized. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Proposed 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations bn RINs Fuel type 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.30 1.36 Biomass-based diesel 7.12 7.50 Advanced biofuel 9.02 9.46 Total renewable fuel 24.02 24.46 Implied ethanol mandate 15 15 — EPA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update


13/06/25
13/06/25

Israel, Iran exchange strikes: Update

Updates with details throughout Washington, 13 June (Argus) — Israel continued to attack nuclear facilities in Iran and Tehran retaliated with missile strikes against Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel on a day that saw sharp escalation across the world's largest oil producing region. Israel's Air Force said today it completed another round of attacks against Iran while prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country will continue attacking Iran "as long as necessary". The latest Israeli attack, following broader strikes in the early hours Friday, targeted a nuclear facility near Isfahan in Iran's northwest, according to Israel's Air Force post on social media platform X at 8:40pm local time (5:40pm GMT). A barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles landed in Tel Aviv in late evening hours Friday local time, as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it will deliver a "crushing and precise response" to Israeli strikes that decapitated Iran's military leadership, knocked out the country's air defense and caused some damage to the country's nuclear programme facilities. The exchange of air and missile strikes has so far spared oil infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere in the region. Israel has halted production at two of its major natural gas fields and cut pipeline exports to Egypt following the attack on Iran. Crude market participants said they were concerned that Israeli attacks on Iran could extend beyond the existing military targets and nuclear infrastructure, and target the country's oil fields and facilities. The July Nymex WTI contract was trading near $73/bl at 3pm ET, about 8pc above yesterday's settlement price. Israel's military said earlier in the day that it intercepted a barrage of drones launched from Iran and Yemen. The ballistic missiles Iran used later in the evening are faster moving and harder to intercept, said former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf. Iran last used them to attack Israel in October 2024. "We must give a strong response," Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said before the Iranian missile strikes on Israel. "They shouldn't imagine that they've attacked us and that everything is over now." What next? The immediate aftermath of the attack on Iran, launched in the early hours Friday local time, points to a serious toll in leadership ranks, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander-in-chief Hossein Salami and Iran's army chief, Mohammad Bagheri. US president Donald Trump convened a national security council meeting at 11am ET today, with no readout yet on any potential measures it could take in response to a hike in oil prices. US forces across the Middle East are on alert and the US administration pledged to help defend Israel from further attacks. The conflict has the potential to spread to neighboring countries and Trump's sidelining or forced retirement of professional diplomats at the State Department and the White House national security council leaves his administration with fewer resources to dial down tensions or to prevent Israel from taking drastic steps, Leaf said during a discussion hosted by think tank the Middle East Institute. "Iraq is in the bull's eye," said Leaf, who left the State Department in January. "The Gulf states are obviously very vulnerable. Egypt and Israel have been acutely threatened by the conflict in Gaza, and this kind of adds a new pile on, but I worry about Iraq." The apparent initial success of Israel's military operation could prompt Netanyahu to press his advantage against Iran and "one of my concerns would be that... the drive to go forward toward regime change will be just too tempting," Leaf said. "This is a country of 83 million people. It's not a non-state actor like Hezbollah" in Lebanon, she said. "As immense an achievement it was for the Israel Defense Forces to take Hezbollah apart, it is not the same thing as really decapitating a country and then seeing how it all works out." By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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