Ukraine's gas imports have nearly doubled in the first 10 days of May from April, although still only the Polish and Hungarian routes are being used.
Ukraine's net imports — after netting off inflows and outflows to and from Moldova — averaged 140 GWh/d on 1-10 May, nearly double the 73 GWh/d average in April, the latest available data from transmission system operators show. The increase has been driven by flows from Hungary at VIP Bereg rising to near full capacity of 103 GWh/d from 60 GWh/d, and a smaller 12 GWh/d increase from Poland (see flows graph). Net flows to Moldova also fell to 13 GWh/d from 23 GWh/d, leaving more gas in Ukraine.
But imports would need to ramp up significantly to match the 4.6bn m³ that state-owned incumbent Naftogaz estimated would be needed over the entire summer. If Ukrainian net imports remain at 140 GWh/d until 15 October, around the typical start of the heating season, then cumulative net imports would reach around 22TWh, or around 2.1bn m³ using Ukraine's standard 10.5 kWh/m³ conversion rate.
VIP Bereg is already flowing at near maximum capacity, as is the interconnection point with Poland, meaning that any additional flows will need to arrive from Slovakia at Budince or from Romania at Isaccea, both particularly expensive transit routes. Demand for third-quarter capacity along the Bereg route continues to outstrip available capacity, with the auction now in its sixth day and still not concluded.
So far, Naftogaz has announced few public supply deals, although it has contracted 300mn m³ of LNG from Poland's Orlen, with some market participants saying Orlen would supply as much as 1bn m³. The firm has €410mn in funds from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which it hopes will finance the purchase of around 1bn m³. But it is unclear where funding for additional purchases will come from, and the government does not intend to increase household or business tariffs to cover Naftogaz's higher costs.
Even if Ukraine imports as much as Naftogaz said it will need, the country could still face shortages in the winter. Ukraine started the injection season in mid-April at the lowest stock level in at least a decade, and while Naftogaz managed to restore more than half of the output it lost in February following attacks on its production infrastructure, Ukrainian production still remains well below pre-2022 levels.
Hungary maintains pivotal hub role
Hungary has become an increasingly important transit hub over the past year, and Ukraine's import needs have increased its prominence further.
With VIP Bereg at a 99pc utilisation rate this month and continued exports northward to Slovakia, Hungary has been pulling in more gas from other sources to maintain these flows.
Inflows from Serbia at Horgos, where Russian gas arrives into Hungary through Turkish Stream, rose to 244 GWh/d on 1-10 May from 223 GWh/d in April, just below the point's technical capacity of 246 GWh/d. And inflows from Austria have also increased considerably, rising to 139 GWh/d from 92 GWh/d, while receipts from Romania more than doubled to 40 GWh/d from 19 GWh/d (see Hungarian flows graph).
Hungarian prompt prices have risen to a premium over Austria and Romania in order to attract more gas (see prices graph). Slovakia remains at a premium to Hungary, though, driven by the need to incentivise flows from Hungary now that Russian transit through Ukraine has ceased. Hungarian transmission tariffs remain significantly cheaper than in Slovakia or Romania, so demand for Hungarian capacity at quarterly auctions last week held strong. The bookings suggest that the recent flow configuration is set to continue in the second half of summer, with all import capacity from Serbia booked and most available capacity from Austria.
The export route from Romania to Ukraine remains unpopular, not just because of the high transmission tariffs paid in Romania and Moldova, but also because of the conditional nature of the flows. An equal amount of gas must be brought into Romania at Negru Voda 1 as is exported at Isaccea 1, as they are part of the same Trans-Balkan Pipeline string. Additionally, anyone hoping to bring gas from Greece or Bulgaria up to Ukraine must secure capacity in as many as 10 or more auctions, which take place simultaneously given that the transit route crosses in and out of Moldova several times. Even one failed auction could make exports along this route impossible.
