Opec downgrades non-Opec+ supply growth forecasts

Spanish Market: Crude oil
14/05/25

Opec has downgraded its 2025 and 2026 non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecasts for a second month in a row, mainly driven by lower output expectations from the US.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised down by 100,000 b/d its non-Opec supply growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 810,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d, respectively. This follows identical downgrades of 100,000 b/d for each year in Opec's previous report.

While Opec did not give a reason for its supply revisions, the recent decline in oil prices is likely to have played a role. Production growth in the US, particularly in the shale patch, is highly sensitive to price movements, for example.

US shale producer Diamondback Energy chief executive Travis Stice earlier this month said US onshore crude production had likely peaked as drilling activity slowed in response to lower oil prices.

Opec sees US supply growing by 330,000 b/d in 2025 and 280,000 b/d in 2026, compared with 450,000 b/d and 460,000 b/d in its March MOMR.

Lower non-Opec+ supply expectations may have played a role in the decision by some Opec+ members to accelerate their planned supply increases for May and June.

Opec kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for this year and next at 1.3mn b/d and 1.28mn b/d, respectively. These forecasts remain bullish compared to those of the IEA and US' EIA.

Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 106,000 b/d to 40.92mn b/d in April, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026.

By Aydin Calik

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

23/06/25

Brent crude tops $80/bl after US strikes on Iran

Singapore, 23 June (Argus) — Crude oil futures rose in early trading on Monday, sending Brent crude to a five-month high above $80/bl, after the US bombed Iran's nuclear sites. The front-month August Brent contract on Ice rose by 5.7pc to a high of $81.40/bl shortly after trading got underway in Asia. Brent last closed above $80/bl in January. Prices later eased, with Brent trading at $78.92/bl at 7:40am Singapore time (23:40 GMT). The Nymex front-month August WTI contract rose by 6.2pc to a high of $78.40/bl, before dropping back to $75.74/bl. The US carried out air strikes on Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites early on 22 June local time. The strikes were a "spectacular military success" and the sites have been "completely and totally obliterated", US president Donald Trump said. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed the attacks and said it had identified extensive damage to the Isfahan site in particular. It said the extent of damage to the Fordow facility, which is heavily fortified and built inside a mountain, is unclear. Radiation levels at the sites have not increased following the strikes, it said, citing Iranian authorities. Iran's foreign ministry condemned what it described as "brutal military aggression" by the US against its nuclear facilities. It remains unclear how Tehran will respond to the attacks. Any attempt by Iran to close the strait of Hormuz would be "a terrible mistake," US secretary of state Marco Rubio said on 22 June. The strait is the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. "It's economic suicide for them if they do it, and we retain options to deal with that," Rubio said. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran: Update

Updates with remarks from President Donald Trump Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. "The strikes were a spectacular military success," Trump said in a televised address Saturday night. "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier." Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, had already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade has often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump, in his televised address, referenced the US' killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 — the last time US and Iranian forces directly exchanged fire. Tehran's response at that time involved missile attacks on US bases in Iraq that wounded more than 100 US military personnel, but drew no heavy US retaliation. The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Even before the US bombing raids, Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

22/06/25

US bombs nuclear sites in Iran

Washington, 21 June (Argus) — The US conducted air strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, President Donald Trump said Saturday evening. The US bombers targeted the heavily fortified, underground facility at Fordow and sites at Natanz and Isfahan, Trump said on his social media platform. He said he would make a televised address at 10pm ET Saturday "regarding our very successful military operation in Iran". "A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow," Trump said. Trump waited until after the US planes had left Iranian airspace before making the announcement. Israel's air and missile strikes, underway since 13 June, already targeted those three facilities, in addition to some domestic energy infrastructure and urban areas across Iran. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA on Friday warned of potential nuclear safety hazards from the ongoing Israeli attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and cautioned Israel against targeting Iran's Busherh nuclear power plant and a nuclear research laboratory in Tehran. Washington-based military experts assessed that only the US Air Force had the right type of munitions to destroy Fordow. Involving the US in the Israel-Iran war is a watershed moment for Trump's presidency. Trump in the past decade often lambasted his predecessors for involving the US in costly and fruitless military adventures in the Middle East. But he has changed his tune since the beginning of Israel's offensive on Iran, claiming that eliminating Iran's nuclear program was worth the US involvement. Trump's public musings about a possible US role in Israel's campaign against Iran in the past week spurred the oil industry and shipping sectors to increase the risk premiums embedded in their calculations. Trump since 13 June alternatively held out the prospect of diplomacy and discussed killing senior Iranian leaders. Even today, after the US air strikes, Trump posted that "NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!". The markets will closely watch Tehran's reaction to the US air strikes. Most immediately at stake are Iran's 2.5mn b/d of crude, condensate and products exports, which mostly head to China. Oil markets are also concerned about the risk of contagion if Israel and the US draw retaliatory attacks elsewhere in the Mideast Gulf or jeopardize shipping through the strait of Hormuz — the global oil market's single most vulnerable chokepoint, through which pass about 17mn b/d of crude and products, or about a quarter of seaborne oil trade. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

20/06/25

Iran’s refineries at risk in escalating conflict

Iran would probably have to curtail products exports and turn to the import markets if its refineries are attacked, write Ieva Paldaviciute and Nader Itayim Dubai, 20 June (Argus) — Key oil and gas production and export facilities have stayed out of the firing line a week into the conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, bringing a degree of relief to global markets. But the targeting of downstream assets by both sides has raised the spectre of looming domestic fuel shortages if the conflict endures. No Iranian crude refineries have been hit yet in the Israeli strikes that, for the most part, have focused on key military and nuclear-related infrastructure and personnel. But strikes on two gas processing facilities in the south of the country and two products storage facilities on the outskirts of Tehran suggest refineries, or condensate splitters, soon could be affected. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel's 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery on 15 June, damaging is power supply system. The plant initially continued crude processing while shutting some secondary units, but it fully halted operations on 17 June. Iran has nearly 2mn b/d of crude refining capacity spread across nine facilities, which rises to about 2.4mn b/d when including the 360,000 b/d Persian Gulf Star condensate splitter in Bandar Abbas, on the Mideast Gulf coast. This is up from below 1.9mn b/d a decade ago, after capacity additions at the 58,000 b/d Shiraz, 630,000 b/d Abadan and 220,000 b/d Tehran refineries, among others. Iran nevertheless has grappled with a severe products imbalance in recent years, driven primarily by a fast increase in its domestic fuel consumption. Although operations at all refineries remain unimpeded, the conflict has triggered a frenzy of fuel buying by Iranians, particularly in Tehran, with Israel warning residents to leave the city as it intensifies its bombing campaign. If any refining infrastructure is hit, Iran may quickly have to halt products exports to ensure that domestic supply can be met. Iran is a net exporter of fuel oil and naphtha, but its position as a gasoline and gasoil exporter has diminished in recent years owing to its fast-growing domestic demand. The reimposition of US sanctions on Iran by US president Donald Trump during his first term in 2018 and his "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran at the start of his second term in January have only added pressure to its products trade. Iranian naphtha is shipped mainly to the UAE, where it is used as a gasoline blendstock. Iran exported about 116,000 b/d of naphtha in January-May, data from consultancy FGE show, down by 12pc from its 2024 exports. Transfer news Iranian fuel oil typically makes its way to floating storage hubs in Asia-Pacific, often after multiple ship-to-ship transfers designed to obscure its origin. Some cargoes are then re-exported to China and bought by independent refiners as feedstock fuel. Fuel oil exports stood at 252,000 b/d in the first five months of this year, down from 264,000 b/d last year. Iran has had to turn to imports to bridge the gap between its gasoline production of about 660,000 b/d and average consumption of 780,000 b/d during the Iranian year to 20 March 2025, according to state-owned refiner NIORDC. Iran's diesel production has also been playing catch-up, with heavily subsidised consumption exacerbated by fuel smuggling to neighbouring countries. Iran still exported 42,000 b/d of diesel this year, according to FGE, but this is less than half of the 102,000 b/d it exported last year. The Haifa refinery is a key supplier to Israel's domestic market but it also exported about 12,000 b/d of diesel and gasoil, and 13,000 b/d of fuel oil in January-May, mostly to neighbouring countries in the Mediterranean. A prolonged shutdown could result in Israel turning to products imports, pressuring supply chains in the Mediterranean. Israel aims to restart the plant within weeks. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 28 outcome must be implemented in full: Cop 30 head

20/06/25

Cop 28 outcome must be implemented in full: Cop 30 head

London, 20 June (Argus) — The incoming UN Cop 30 summit president Andre Correa do Lago has set out his objectives for the conference in November, placing as a key priority the Cop 28 outcome of trebling renewables capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Correa do Lago today said his plan is to drive "collective action" to tackle climate change, placing a strong emphasis on the global stocktake, the first of which was concluded at Cop 28 in 2023 . That outcome saw almost 200 countries commit to "transition away" from fossil fuels, as well as treble renewables capacity by 2030. The global stocktake, a five-yearly process, sets out progress made towards Paris climate agreement goals. Today's "Action Agenda must drive momentum towards the full implementation of the GST [global stocktake]", Correa do Lago said. The incoming Cop president is focusing on implementing agreements made at previous Cops, and ensuring that countries and all other stakeholders — such as sub-nationals and the private sector — work together to put the decisions into action. Correa do Lago's letter today repeated language from the Cop 28 outcome, and noted his other main themes for Cop 30, which will take place in Belem, in Brazil's Para state, on 10-21 November. As well as shifting energy, industry and transport from fossil fuel-powered to lower- or zero-carbon alternatives, he listed forests, oceans and biodiversity and agriculture and food as key topics. Further topics involved building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water and human and social development. A final priority was enablers and accelerators across the board, including for finance and technology. Correa do Lago said in May that Cop 30 should be a "pivot point" to action on climate change, and "a new era of putting into practice" what has been agreed at previous Cop summits. He has noted a difficult geopolitical situation , which could make talks more challenging. Brazil's Cop 30 presidency is also focused on climate finance at UN climate talks, currently underway in Bonn, Germany. These 'halfway point' discussions serve to cover substantial technical groundwork ahead of political talks at Cop summits each November. Brazil yesterday at Bonn presented a draft of a roadmap to scale up climate finance — from all sources — to $1.3 trillion/year by 2035. The roadmap will not be officially negotiated, although it was a key outcome from Cop 29 in 2024 and is likely to be finalised just ahead of Cop 30 this year. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more