Bolivian president bypasses reelection

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas
14/05/25

Bolivian president Luis Arce will not run for a second five-year term and instead backed a united front to elect another leftist candidate.

Arce's decision on Tuesday came on the eve of the filing deadline for the 17 August election. He called on former president Evo Morales to also step aside from the race to improve the chances of another left-wing contender. Morales is fighting a court ruling that he is ineligible to run after already having multiple terms.

Arce said the Movement to Socialism (MAS) party should rally behind senate president Andronico Rodriguez, 36. Rodriguez announced his candidacy on 3 May as a third way, but remains closely aligned with Morales. He has led the senate since 2020. Four center-right candidates are expected to compete in the race. The MAS has governed Bolivia for most of the past 20 years.

Arce and Morales, allies turned enemies, blame each other for Bolivia's economic turmoil, including its dwindling oil and natural gas production.

Inflation through April was 5.5pc, up from 1.3pc in the same period last year. Inflation was 9.9pc last year, the highest since 2008. The World Bank forecasts GDP growth at 1.4pc for the year.

The oil and gas sector is at the heart of the crisis. Bolivia has gone from fuel independence to importing 54pc of gasoline and 86pc of diesel, both of which are heavily subsidized. The government forecast $2.9bn on fuel subsidies this year.

Crude production was close to 21,000 b/d in 2024, according to the statistics agency. It was approximately 51,000 b/d in 2014.

Natural gas output, the cornerstone of Bolivia's economic growth for most of this century, has fallen. Output was approximately 33mn m³/d in 2024, down from a peak of 56mn m³/d in 2006.

Proven reserves were at 4.5 trillion cf in 2023, less than half of the 10.7 trillion reported in 2017, according to the state-owned YPFB. YPFB in early May announced a new tender to certify reserves by the end of this year.

Bolivia stopped daily piped gas exports to Argentina in September and has a contract to export up to 20mn m³/d to Brazil. Domestic demand for gas is close to 14mn m³/d, stated YPFB.

On 1 April Argentina began using Bolivia's pipeline infrastructure to ship natural gas to Brazil. Three companies — Argentina's Pluspetrol and Tecpetrol, and France's TotalEnergies — have so far sent gas to Brazil.

By Lucien Chauvin

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12/06/25

Trump discusses possible Israel attack on Iran

Washington, 12 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today suggested that Israel is preparing a military strike against Iran, but added that he opposed such action as it could jeopardize his diplomatic efforts with Tehran. An Israeli attack on Iran may not be imminent "... but it looks like it's something that could very well happen," Trump told reporters today. Casual discussion of military conflict that would destabilize the Middle East is the latest twist in Trump's outreach to Tehran to strike a nuclear agreement outwardly very similar to one he terminated in 2018. The Trump administration in the past two days ordered non-essential US civilian and military personnel to evacuate from Iraq and Israel. The US in the past temporarily drew down its diplomatic presence in Iraq — most recently in early 2024 — in response to risks posed by pro-Iran militias based in Iraq. Israel and Iran exchanged missile and drone strikes in 2024. As long as the US and Iran are negotiating, "I don't want [Israel] going in because, I mean, that would blow it," Trump said. "Might help it actually but it also could blow it." US and Iranian negotiators are scheduled to meet on Sunday for another round of talks on the future of Tehran's nuclear program and possible relief of US sanctions. The key outstanding issue separating Washington and Tehran is Iran's ability to enrich uranium and, thus, retain a theoretical path to nuclear weapons. "Look, it's very simple, not complicated," Trump said today. "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful." A "pretty good" nuclear deal with Iran is within reach but "it's got to be better than pretty good though", Trump said today. As Trump's administration claimed progress in talks with Iran, US lawmakers critical of Iran, as well as Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have stepped up demands for a complete elimination of Tehran's nuclear program. Tehran insists it must retain the civilian component of its nuclear program. UN nuclear watchdog the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations, a decision denounced by Tehran. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Spanish May industrial gas use hits multi-year low

12/06/25

Spanish May industrial gas use hits multi-year low

London, 12 June (Argus) — Spanish industrial gas burn last month was higher than in April but the lowest for May in at least nine years, the latest data from grid operator Enagas show. Industrial gas demand of 449 GWh/d in May edged up from 441 GWh/d in April, but remained lower than the 465 GWh/d a year earlier and was the weakest for May since at least 2016, when Enagas' public dataset begins. Before last month, the lowest industrial demand for May over the past nine years occurred in 2024, when Mibgas day-ahead reference prices averaged €32/MWh. Spanish industries last month also consumed less gas than in May 2022, when day-ahead reference prices on the Mibgas exchange averaged €77/MWh, more than double the Argus -assessed €34/MWh day-ahead average last month. Spanish industrial demand has remained lower on the year every month so far in 2025, largely because of limited gas use by refineries. Spanish refiners last month consumed 84 GWh/d, down from 100 GWh/d in May 2024, but the sector still accounted for the largest single portion of industrial demand. There was also a significant decline in demand from the food sector, which decreased by 13pc on the year, combined heat and power (CHP) plants (11pc drop) and the paper sector, which fell by 7pc on the year. Gas burn by CHPs last month held lower on the year, despite overall demand for Spanish power generation holding more or less stable and Spanish renewables and nuclear plants contributing less to the mix. That change may at least partly relate to stronger competition from combined-cycle gas turbines, which generated 4.4GW last month, 63pc higher than a year earlier. The metal, chemical and construction sectors all used marginally more gas on the year, but that change only partially offset the decline in other sectors ( see table ). By Iris Petrillo Spanish gas demand by sector GWh/d May-25 May-24 Refineries 84 98 Chemical and pharma 61 59 Construction 61 60 CHPs 51 58 Food 44 50 Other 36 39 Metals 36 35 Paper 31 33 Services 29 29 Textiles 5 5 Enagas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

12/06/25

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

New York, 12 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is close to releasing two regulations informing oil refiners how much biofuel they must blend into the conventional fuel supply. The two rules — proposed biofuel blend mandates for at least 2026 and most likely for 2027 as well as a separate final rule cutting cellulosic fuel mandates for last year — exited White House review on Wednesday, the last step before major regulations can be released. Previously scheduled meetings as part of the process appear to have been cancelled, another signal that the rules' release is imminent. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said it wants to get the frequently delayed Renewable Fuel Standard program back on its statutory timeline, which would require volumes for 2027 to be finalized before November this year. Any proposal will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed. A coalition of biofuel-producing groups and feedstock suppliers, including the American Petroleum Institute, has pushed EPA to set a biomass-based diesel mandate of 5.25bn USG for 2026, hoping that a record-high target will support biorefineries that have struggled this year. Many plants have idled or run less recently, as uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and tariffs that up feedstock costs all hurt margins. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin also told a House subcommittee last month the agency wanted "to get caught up as quickly as we can" on a backlog of small refiner requests for program exemptions. Courts took issue with EPA's exemption policy during Trump's first term and again during President Joe Biden's tenure, leaving officials now with dozens of waiver requests covering multiple compliance years still pending. It is unclear whether the rule will provide clarity on EPA's plans for program waivers — including whether the agency will up obligations on other parties to make up for exempt small refiners — but biofuel groups have worried that widespread exemptions would curb demand for their products. The price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used for program compliance have been volatile this year on rumors about these exemptions, which EPA has called market manipulation. RIN trading picked up and prices rose on the news as Thursday's session began. Bids and offers for 2025 ethanol D6 RINs, the most prevalent type currently trading, began the day at 96¢/RIN and 98¢/RIN, respectively. Deals were struck shortly after at 98¢/RIN and 99¢/RIN, with seller interest at one point reaching 100¢/RIN — well above a 95.5¢/RIN settle on Wednesday. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs with concurrent vintage followed the same path with sellers holding ground as high as 107¢/RIN. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

12/06/25

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

Seville, 12 June (Argus) — Emissions in sectors covered by the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) declined by 11.5pc year on year in 2024, data published by the UK ETS authority show, slowing their decline slightly from the previous year. Stationary installations covered by the UK ETS emitted 76.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down by 12.9pc from 2023, the data show. But this was offset somewhat by a 2pc increase in aviation emissions to 8.99mn t CO2e. Overall UK ETS emissions now have declined for two consecutive years, having fallen by 12.5pc in 2023. Emissions under the scheme rose by 2.5pc in 2022, as a strong rebound in aviation activity following earlier Covid-19 restrictions outweighed declining stationary emissions. Stationary emissions have decreased in every year since the scheme launched in 2021. The majority of the decline in stationary emissions under the UK ETS last year took place in the power sector, where emissions dropped by 18.2pc to 30.6mn t CO2e. The country's last coal-fired plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed in September last year. And the share of gas-fired output in the generation mix dipped as wind, solar and biomass production and electricity imports edged higher. Industrial emissions also declined, by 8.9pc to 46.1mn t CO2e. The iron and steel sector posted the largest relative drop of 30pc to 6.54mn t CO2e. Emissions from crude extraction fell by 6.4pc to 6.0mn t CO2e, while emissions from gas extraction, manufacture and distribution activities decreased by 8.9pc to 5.3mn t CO2e. The chemicals sector emitted 2.28mn t CO2e, down by 5.2pc on the year. A total of 43 installations were marked as having surrendered fewer carbon allowances than their cumulative emissions since the launch of the UK ETS, as of 1 May. A further two installations failed to report their emissions by the deadline. "Appropriate enforcement action" will be taken against operators that fail to surrender the required allowances, the UK ETS authority said. Overall greenhouse gas emissions across the UK economy dropped by a smaller 4pc last year, data published by the government in March show. This decline also was driven principally by lower gas and coal use in the power and industry sectors, with smaller declines in transport and agriculture, not covered by the UK ETS, and an increase in buildings emissions, also out of the scheme's scope. Emissions under the EU ETS in 2024 dipped by a projected 4.5pc from a year earlier, based on preliminary data published by the European Commission in April. The UK and EU last month announced that they will "work towards" linking the two systems together. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Malaysia’s oil, gas projects to emit 4bn t GHG: CREA

12/06/25

Malaysia’s oil, gas projects to emit 4bn t GHG: CREA

Singapore, 12 June (Argus) — Malaysia's continued extraction and use of its oil and gas resources could emit around 4bn t of greenhouse gases (GHGs), according to a report by the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Malaysia holds about 9.84bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) in committed fossil fuel reserves, of which 82pc is gas, stated the report, which was written in collaboration with environmental think-tank RimbaWatch. This figure only includes projects with proven reserves that are covered by a production commitment such as production sharing contracts. These committed reserves would also emit an estimated 4.15bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), which is equivalent to 13 years of Malaysia's annual emissions. The emissions will also consist of 10.9mn t of methane, which is a much more potent GHG than CO2. Malaysia's remaining commercially recoverable reserves are estimated at over 17bn boe over more than 400 fields, with gas comprising about 75pc of this. Malaysia launched its national energy transition roadmap (NETR) in 2023, detailing initiatives to achieve its 2050 net zero carbon emissions target, such as renewable energy development, hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). The country aims to reduce its economy-wide carbon emissions by 45pc in 2030 compared with 2005 levels, under its nationally determined contribution — climate plan — to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. But at the same time, the country is seeking to maximise its fossil fuel production to ensure energy security. State-owned Petronas raised its total oil and gas production in 2024 to 2.4mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), up by 1pc on the year. Of this, oil production fell by 4.4pc on the year to 813,000 boe/d, while gas output rose by 3.6pc to 1.64mn boe/d. More than 80pc of Malaysia's power was generated from fossil fuels in 2024. The NETR plans to increase the share of gas in total primary energy supply by 16pc from 2023 to 57pc in 2050, with gas viewed as a transition fuel for decarbonisation. But "referring to gas as sustainable, and claiming that Malaysia can achieve net-zero emissions through growing gas, are oxymorons," stated the report. Petronas' Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions totalled 46.04mn t of CO2e across its Malaysian operations in 2024, surpassing its target of 49.5mn t of CO2e for the year. In comparison, the firm recorded 45.6mn t of Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions in 2023. But the firm's net zero pathway excludes its Scope 3 emissions, which make up about 80pc of a fossil fuel entity's emissions, according to the report. Additionally, its CCUS plans are aimed at enabling sour gas extraction, hence exacerbating fossil fuel production and emissions. Malaysia should instead set a sectoral carbon budget for the domestic energy sector in line with its net zero goals, taking into account both production and consumption, and cement this budget in the country's upcoming Climate Change bill, stated the report. By Prethika Nair Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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