Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Oil products
21/05/25

Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF lowered its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the growing impact of US tariffs on the economy.

GDP is now expected to grow just 0.1pc in 2025, according to IMEF's May survey, down from 0.2pc estimates in April, 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. The number of respondents forecasting a contraction in GDP rose to 16, or 37pc of the sample, from nine in April.

While the US has granted some exemptions and discounts for Mexican goods meeting regional content rules, IMEF said the effective tariff rate on Mexican exports remains higher than that for Canada, Brazil, India, Vietnam and others.

"We're already seeing the [tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, adding that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US.

Trade is also being hit by a screwworm outbreak in cattle that led to port closures last week and curtailed beef exports, which account for $1.3bn in annual exports.

More automakers could relocate or scale back production in Mexico, Herrera said, after Stellantis confirmed plans to shift some operations to the US and recent reports Nissan may close one or both of its Mexican plants.

In response, Mexico this week sent deputy economy minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez to Tokyo to meet with Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and Honda executives.

IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 200,000 in May from 220,000 in April. Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported only 43,500 new jobs over the past 12 months as of 5 May.

Beyond trade, IMEF flagged uncertainty from recent constitutional reforms and the potential for a US tax on remittances as additional risks to growth.

The group held its 2025 inflation forecast steady at 3.8pc, despite Mexico's consumer price index rising to 3.93pc in April from 3.80pc in March.

IMEF noted concerns about a potential rebound in inflation later this year after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc on 8 May — the third such cut in 2025. The group now sees the end-2025 rate at 7.75pc, down from 8pc previously.

IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.80/$1, slightly lower than the Ps20.90/$1 forecast in April. The peso recently strengthened to Ps19.34/$1, though Herrera said this reflected dollar weakness more than peso strength.

By James Young

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12/06/25

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

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UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

12/06/25

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

Seville, 12 June (Argus) — Emissions in sectors covered by the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) declined by 11.5pc year on year in 2024, data published by the UK ETS authority show, slowing their decline slightly from the previous year. Stationary installations covered by the UK ETS emitted 76.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down by 12.9pc from 2023, the data show. But this was offset somewhat by a 2pc increase in aviation emissions to 8.99mn t CO2e. Overall UK ETS emissions now have declined for two consecutive years, having fallen by 12.5pc in 2023. Emissions under the scheme rose by 2.5pc in 2022, as a strong rebound in aviation activity following earlier Covid-19 restrictions outweighed declining stationary emissions. Stationary emissions have decreased in every year since the scheme launched in 2021. The majority of the decline in stationary emissions under the UK ETS last year took place in the power sector, where emissions dropped by 18.2pc to 30.6mn t CO2e. The country's last coal-fired plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed in September last year. And the share of gas-fired output in the generation mix dipped as wind, solar and biomass production and electricity imports edged higher. Industrial emissions also declined, by 8.9pc to 46.1mn t CO2e. The iron and steel sector posted the largest relative drop of 30pc to 6.54mn t CO2e. Emissions from crude extraction fell by 6.4pc to 6.0mn t CO2e, while emissions from gas extraction, manufacture and distribution activities decreased by 8.9pc to 5.3mn t CO2e. The chemicals sector emitted 2.28mn t CO2e, down by 5.2pc on the year. A total of 43 installations were marked as having surrendered fewer carbon allowances than their cumulative emissions since the launch of the UK ETS, as of 1 May. A further two installations failed to report their emissions by the deadline. "Appropriate enforcement action" will be taken against operators that fail to surrender the required allowances, the UK ETS authority said. Overall greenhouse gas emissions across the UK economy dropped by a smaller 4pc last year, data published by the government in March show. This decline also was driven principally by lower gas and coal use in the power and industry sectors, with smaller declines in transport and agriculture, not covered by the UK ETS, and an increase in buildings emissions, also out of the scheme's scope. Emissions under the EU ETS in 2024 dipped by a projected 4.5pc from a year earlier, based on preliminary data published by the European Commission in April. The UK and EU last month announced that they will "work towards" linking the two systems together. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ice gasoil backwardation widens as supply tightens

12/06/25

Ice gasoil backwardation widens as supply tightens

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EU adopts new Russia, Belarus tariffs

12/06/25

EU adopts new Russia, Belarus tariffs

Brussels, 12 June (Argus) — The EU has now formally adopted new tariffs on remaining Russian and Belarus agricultural products, as well as on a range of fertilizers. The regulation, implementing the tariffs, enters into force on 1 July. EU officials estimate the new agricultural tariffs cover up to 15pc of Russian agricultural exports to the EU in 2023. The EU would, from 1 July, place an additional 50pc tariff customs duty based on value on over 145 CN codes. Goods covered include animal, dairy, live trees and other plants, coffee and meat as well as various animal fats and plant oils, including palm and palm kernel oil. The implementation of tariffs is to take place over three years for nitrogen-based and compound fertilisers. The new tariffs add an additional €40/t on imports of most nitrogen fertilizers — including urea, amsul, AN, CAN, and UAN — from Russia and Belarus, beginning on 1 July. They also add €45/t to the import of DAP, MAP, NPKs, NP and some other grades. The new tariffs are additional to already-existing import tariffs to the EU. For most grades from Russia these import tariffs are set at 6.5pc. From 2026 until 2028 the rates increase to reach levels of €315/t and €430/t respectively for the two product groups. The legal text also foresees immediate application of the highest rates, if cumulative imports exceed 2.7mn t in 2025-2026, 1.8mn t in 2026-2027, or 0.9mn t in 2027-2028. The European Parliament adopted the additional tariffs last month. Like EU states, parliament confirmed the commission's legal proposal, leaving unchanged the rates and phase-in period of tariffs proposed by the commission at the end of January. By Dafydd ab Iago EU proposed import tariffs for Russia and Belarus ( €/t *) Urea, Amsul, AN, CAN, UAN NPKs, DAP, MAP, NP Jul 25-Jun 26 40 45 Jul 26-Jun 27 60 70 Jul 27-Jun 28 80 95 From Jul 28 315 430 *All tariffs on top of 6.5pc import duty. Levels are applicable for a total of 2.7mn t in 2025-26, 1.8mn t in 2026-27, and 0.9mn t in 2027-28. Once the quota has been reached, levels jump to the level from July 28 — EU Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Malaysia’s oil, gas projects to emit 4bn t GHG: CREA

12/06/25

Malaysia’s oil, gas projects to emit 4bn t GHG: CREA

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