Brazil inflation eases to 5.32pc in May

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Electricity, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products
10/06/25

Brazil's inflation slowed to an annual 5.32pc in May, snapping a three-month upswing since February, according to government statistics agency IBGE.

The country's annualized inflation slowed from 5.53pc in April but was up from 4.56pc in January.

Shelter costs, which include utilities, posted the largest gain in May, rising to an annual 4.53pc from 4pc in April. The acceleration took place thanks to a federal increase in power tariffs last month because of dry weather hampering hydroelectric power generation, which is Brazil's main power source.

Transportation costs decelerated to 4.64pc in May from 5.49pc in April, in part driven by an annualized 13.16pc contraction in airplane tickets. Motor fuels also decelerated to 7.95pc in May from a 9.23pc gain in the month prior. Gasoline, ethanol, diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) prices all fell in May, following some readjustments by state-controlled Petrobras.

Food and beverage costs slowed to an annual 7.33pc in May from 7.81pc in April. Soybean oil prices eased to 21.1pc from 22.83pc.

Brazil's monthly inflation slowed to 0.26pc in May from 0.43pc in April. That is the third monthly decline and the lowest rate since January.

The country's decelerating inflation is partially thanks to the central bank's course of tightening, hiking its target rate to 14.75pc in early May. That was the sixth increase in a row since September, aimed at cooling the economy and boosting the real currency following sharp depreciation last year.

By Maria Frazatto

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14/07/25

Trump amplifies attacks on renewable energy

Washington, 14 July (Argus) — President Donald Trump is ratcheting up criticism of wind and solar projects he says are a "blight", adding uncertainty for investors deciding which projects can still move forward despite the coming end to most of the industry's clean energy tax credits. Trump mounted one of his most expansive attacks yet on the renewable sector last week. For years, Trump has detailed his disgust for wind farms he sees as unsightly and too expensive, whereas he said he was a "big fan of solar" in last year's presidential debate. But Trump's perspective appears to have shifted. He now believes large solar projects are hated by farmers, "very, very inefficient and very ugly too", and should no longer be built. "We don't want wind, and we don't want solar, because they're a blight on our country," Trump said during a cabinet meeting on 8 July. "They hurt our country very badly." That stance offers another troubling sign for investors in wind and solar projects hoping to qualify for the 45Y and 48E clean energy tax credits before they are terminated under Trump's recently signed tax and energy law . Trump already signed an executive order last week seeking a "strict" interpretation of the end of those tax credits, such that fewer projects will meet a safe harbor deadline that will arrive as soon as 31 December. The administration has other potential tools to undermine wind and solar projects, many of which are depending on new electric transmission lines to connect to load centers. Last week, US senator Josh Hawley (R-Arkansas) said he had received assurances from US energy secretary Chris Wright that the administration would be "putting a stop" to the 800-mile Grain Belt Express transmission line, which would connect wind farms in Kansas to the eastern US. Last month, Wright said he sees intermittent power sources as a "parasite on the grid". The Energy Department did not respond to a request for comment. The Energy Department, in a document released this month, indicated it did not plan to spend $383mn that had already been appropriated for wind and solar projects this fiscal year under a bipartisan funding law Trump signed, a unilateral spending reduction that US senator Patty Murray (D-Washington) and US representative Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) said was "outrageous" and unlawful. The Trump administration also temporarily halted construction of the fully permitted Empire Wind project off the coast of New York, before allowing work to continue in May. US interior secretary Doug Burgum last month said in congressional testimony that the administration was reviewing "all offshore wind projects" and said there was "no appetite" for adding more "intermittent, unreliable [power] to the grid." Threat to dominance Democrats say attempts to undermine wind and solar will be counterproductive to Trump's own priorities of "energy dominance" because they are among the limited types of projects that can be brought on line quickly. US utility executives and data center developers have said they are facing wait times of three years or more for delivery of turbines for gas-fired turbine, given a surge of global demand for electricity needed for artificial intelligence. "There's a backlog of gas turbines, and geothermal and nuclear takes many years. Nothing else is ready," US senator Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said in a social media post last week. "Republican energy policy is to create shortages because they think solar is liberal." Clean energy groups are hoping that Republican lawmakers will pay a political price for voting to cut clean energy tax credits through Trump's recently signed tax and energy law. The industry group Clean Energy for America last week said it launched a billboard advertising campaign that it said was targeted against seven House Republicans who voted for the law. "We're making it clear who is responsible when constituents lose their jobs and find that their monthly electricity bill is higher than they can afford," Clean Energy for America president Andrew Reagan said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico to negotiate Trump’s tariffs: Sheinbaum

14/07/25

Mexico to negotiate Trump’s tariffs: Sheinbaum

Mexico City, 14 July (Argus) — Mexico believes it can reach a deal with US president Donald Trump after he said he would impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico beginning on 1 August. Over the weekend Trump made public on his social media platform a letter sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum on Friday, threatening the new tariffs. The move could significantly disrupt crude flows from Mexico to the US, and refined product flows from the US to Mexico. Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. The Mexican ministries called the new tariff plan "unfair treatment." With the working group— created by the US State Department — leading the talks, Sheinbaum said today she trusts a deal can be made before 1 August. It is not clear if the 30pc tariff threat applies to trade currently covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). A White House official said previously that a 35pc tariff against Canada would not include USMCA-covered trade, but that those terms could change. Mexico also has a plan should no deal be reached, Sheinbaum said, without specifying details. When previously threatened with tariffs, Sheinbaum discussed plans to bolster Mexico's economy to become more resilient in the face of disrupted trade with its top trade partner, as well as unspecified retaliatory tariffs. But Trump vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico was to retaliate with its own measures. In his initial letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to Mexico's "failure" to stop criminal groups from smuggling fentanyl into the US. Trump recognized that Mexico is working on the issue but does not consider these efforts fruitful: "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. Trump sent a similar letter threatening tariffs on Friday to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rotterdam biomarine fuel sales rebound in 2Q

14/07/25

Rotterdam biomarine fuel sales rebound in 2Q

London, 14 July (Argus) — Sales of marine biodiesel blends in Rotterdam rose by 59pc in April–June from the previous quarter, and bio-LNG sales hit a record quarterly high, driven primarily by demand linked to the EU's FuelEU Maritime regulation. But marine biodiesel sales were still 29pc lower than in the same quarter last year, reflecting weaker voluntary demand and a shift in container-liner volumes to east of Suez, where prices have been more competitive. Spot demand for marine biodiesel was mixed during the quarter. Most activity in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub was linked to the start of FuelEU Maritime rules, which require ships entering, leaving or operating within EU waters to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Under the regulation, biofuels bunkered in Singapore can be mass balanced and counted towards compliance if consumed on voyages starting or ending at an EU port. Market participants also reported stronger demand for marine gasoil (MGO)-based blends, with sales doubling to 31,663t from 15,640t in the first quarter of the year. This was partly due to the launch of a new emission control area (ECA) in the Mediterranean Sea on 1 May, which limits sulphur content in marine fuels to 0.1pc. The expansion of ECAs to cover most EU waters could also support demand for MGO and ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) in ARA. ULSFO–biodiesel blend sales nearly tripled to 24,573t in the second quarter from 8,490t in the first. Bio-LNG volumes hit a quarterly record but remained well below conventional LNG. FuelEU Maritime's 2025 GHG reduction target of 2pc can still be met using fossil LNG, which may limit immediate bio-LNG uptake. But bio-LNG's lower carbon intensity could support overcompliance, which can be traded under the FuelEU pooling mechanism. Sales of conventional bunker fuels in Rotterdam also rose on the quarter and were up 5.5pc on the year. ULSFO sales increased by 33pc on the year and nearly 21pc on the quarter, reaching the highest since the second quarter of 2021. High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sales hit the highest on records going back to October-December 2019, rising by more than 10pc on the year and the month. Combined MGO and marine diesel oil (MDO) sales rose by 11pc on the year and by 3.8pc on the quarter, with MGO also at the highest since the second quarter of 2020. In contrast, very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) sales fell by 9pc on the year and 14pc from the previous quarter, the lowest level on record. The divergence in fuel demand is likely linked to the expansion of the Mediterranean Sea emission control area, which came into effect on 1 May and limits sulphur content in marine fuels to 0.1pc. MGO availability in Rotterdam was tighter in the second quarter, as some supply previously destined for the northwest European hub was redirected to the Mediterranean following the region's ECA designation. A similar trend was seen for ULSFO, with some Mediterranean suppliers importing the grade from ARA. LNG bunker sales fell by 24pc from the first quarter and by 17pc on the year. Market participants said the decline may reflect cheaper LNG bunker supply in Asia, where LNG is typically priced using a blend of oil-linked and spot contracts. The Singapore LNG dob price has consistently traded at a discount to northwest European levels in recent months. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Martin Senior, Natália Coelho, and Gabriel Tassi Lara Rotterdam bunker sales t Fuel 2Q25 1Q25 2Q24 q-o-q % y-o-y % ULSFO 225,992 187,031 169,953 20.8 33 VLSFO 679,442 789,218 747,300 -13.9 -9.1 HSFO 914,672 829,197 825,125 10.3 10.9 MGO/MDO 407,877 393,071 369,267 3.8 10.5 Conventional total 2,227,983 2,198,517 2,111,645 1.3 5.5 Biofuel blends 165,220 104,037 234,093 58.8 -29.4 LNG (m³) 200,662 265,043 242,931 -24.3 -17.4 bio-LNG (m³) 4,752 0 2,200 na 116 biomethanol 3,958 5,490 950 -27.9 316.6 Port of Rotterdam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India signs phos agreements: Update

14/07/25

India signs phos agreements: Update

Adds Ma'aden's involvement in the five-year deal with Saudi Arabia in paragraph six of that section. London, 14 July (Argus) — Several Indian fertilizer importers have secured more Saudi DAP/NPS and Moroccan DAP and TSP through offtake agreements. The agreements come at a time when India has struggled to maintain comfortable DAP inventories, largely because of a lack of supply from China, which has drastically reduced its phosphates exports this year. Indian DAP stocks fell throughout June to begin July well below typical levels, at about 1.56mn t, provisional data show. Five-year deal with Saudi Arabia Indian importers IPL, Kribhco and Coromandel have signed an offtake agreement with Saudi Arabia for 3.1mn t/yr of phosphates over the coming five years. The quantity will mostly be DAP but also includes NPS. The deal covers five years starting from India's 2025-26 fiscal year (April-March), and includes an option for a five-year extension. The delegations discussed developing customised fertilizers specifically for India and have established a joint working group to explore long-term collaboration. The cargoes will be priced on a spot basis. The agreed quantity will surpass the 1.88mn t of DAP and 250,000t of NPS — totalling 2.13mn t — that India imported from Saudi Arabia over the 2024 calendar year, according to Argus line-up data. Most of the product will come from Saudi Arabia's largest phosphates producer, Ma'aden. The agreement stands as an additional memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Ma'aden and its regular Indian private and public-sector offtakers, with whom Ma'aden has existing MoUs including for supply and product development. Additional DAP, TSP from Morocco's OCP Six Indian importers have signed another agreement with Moroccan producer OCP for the supply of DAP and TSP up to the end of the current calendar year, Argus understands. This brings the total agreed quantities between Morocco and India to 1.5mn t of DAP and 1mn t of TSP. The latest agreement is for an additional 300,000t of DAP and 200,000t of TSP, adding to the 1.2mn t of DAP and 800,000t of TSP agreed in April . The cargoes will be priced on formula. The importers are IPL, NFL, Hurl, PPL, RFC and Fact. OCP did not comment on the deal. India has imported 730,000t of DAP and 285,000t of TSP from Morocco since the beginning of April. India has so far not taken TSP from any other origin since it began importing the product in June 2024. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada vows to cut red tape to woo energy firms

14/07/25

Canada vows to cut red tape to woo energy firms

Calgary, 14 July (Argus) — Canada's federal government is courting energy companies with the passage of a new law designed to fast-track major projects, but some developers might have reservations after a decade of frustration under Liberal party rule. Prime minister Mark Carney has pushed Bill C-5 through parliament to spark investment and project development by promising faster approval times while circumventing onerous rules made by previous Liberal-led governments. Oil and gas firms see this as a positive step, but with the law comes familiar ambiguity. To be considered for the new "national interest projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of indigenous groups and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. How well a project satisfies these requirements will be at the discretion of Carney's cabinet and requires a leap of faith for supporters and opponents to trust the new process. Developers can expect a tighter two-year time limit for a federal decision, but how quickly the government navigates indigenous and environmental aspects remains to be seen. Such a consultation was seen as crucial under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, and Carney plans to strike a balance between these aspects and economic development. "Bill C-5 doesn't reform Canada's burdensome regulatory system, which is preventing needed investment," think-tank the Fraser Institute says. "It simply lets politicians decide who gets around it." Some indigenous and environmental groups fear that their concerns about potential projects might be played down under the new fast-track process. Such groups were critical of the legislation, not only because of its implications, but because the bill was fast-tracked, meaning debate and study were truncated. Steel of a deal Oil-rich Alberta's premier, Danielle Smith, and counterparts from other provinces are letting Carney's plan play out — for now. "You can only talk the talk for so long before you start putting some real action around it," Smith says, adding that she wants Alberta's projects on Carney's fast-track list by the autumn. Projects to move energy flows to Canada's east are once again being contemplated, with Smith signing an initial agreement last week with Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, which has been feeling the force of US tariff action. The two leaders will study more oil and gas pipelines between the two provinces built using Ontario steel — a prospect not possible under Trudeau. "Carney is no Justin Trudeau," Ford says, adding that Carney, unlike his predecessor, is bringing "the business approach to the federal government". Free enterprise is Alberta's forte, with TD Economics projecting the province to be a key economy for energy growth in 2025-26. An estimated C$17bn ($12bn) will be invested in oil sands in 2027, up by 28pc from 2024, the Alberta Energy Regulator says. Smith hopes to maintain strong capital inflow by securing more pipeline options, having set a goal of doubling Alberta's oil output from 4mn b/d in 2024. An economic revival seems poised to unfold across Canada, with a proposed LNG export project in Baie-Comeau, Quebec, unveiled this month, just days after LNG Canada's 14mn t/yr west coast facility loaded its first cargo. Quebec premier Francois Legault confirmed his team has discussed the Baie-Comeau project with developers. Federal energy minister Tim Hodgson suggested last week that itcould be considered for the national interest list if Quebec and the developers brought it forward. The scheme is a notable departure for Quebec, which — along with the federal government — cancelled a proposed LNG project in Saguenay in 2021 for environmental reasons. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil inflation eases to 5.32pc in May

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