President Donald Trump's administration is close to releasing two regulations informing oil refiners how much biofuel they must blend into the conventional fuel supply.
The two rules — proposed biofuel blend mandates for at least 2026 and most likely for 2027 as well as a separate final rule cutting cellulosic fuel mandates for last year — exited White House review on Wednesday, the last step before major regulations can be released. Previously scheduled meetings as part of the process appear to have been cancelled, another signal that the rules' release is imminent.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said it wants to get the frequently delayed Renewable Fuel Standard program back on its statutory timeline, which would require volumes for 2027 to be finalized before November this year. Any proposal will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed.
A coalition of biofuel-producing groups and feedstock suppliers, including the American Petroleum Institute, has pushed EPA to set a biomass-based diesel mandate of 5.25bn USG for 2026, hoping that a record-high target will support biorefineries that have struggled this year. Many plants have idled or run less recently, as uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and tariffs that up feedstock costs all hurt margins.
EPA administrator Lee Zeldin also told a House subcommittee last month the agency wanted "to get caught up as quickly as we can" on a backlog of small refiner requests for program exemptions. Courts took issue with EPA's exemption policy during Trump's first term and again during President Joe Biden's tenure, leaving officials now with dozens of waiver requests covering multiple compliance years still pending.
It is unclear whether the rule will provide clarity on EPA's plans for program waivers — including whether the agency will up obligations on other parties to make up for exempt small refiners — but biofuel groups have worried that widespread exemptions would curb demand for their products. The price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used for program compliance have been volatile this year on rumors about these exemptions, which EPA has called market manipulation.
RIN trading picked up and prices rose on the news as Thursday's session began. Bids and offers for 2025 ethanol D6 RINs, the most prevalent type currently trading, began the day at 96¢/RIN and 98¢/RIN, respectively. Deals were struck shortly after at 98¢/RIN and 99¢/RIN, with seller interest at one point reaching 100¢/RIN — well above a 95.5¢/RIN settle on Wednesday. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs with concurrent vintage followed the same path with sellers holding ground as high as 107¢/RIN.
