Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest Market News

European products markets jump on Israel-Iran attacks

  • Spanish Market: Oil products
  • 13/06/25

European refined product prices rose sharply in early trading on 13 June as market participants reacted to Israel's overnight air and missile strikes on Iran.

At 10:29, non-oxy gasoline barges were assessed 3.5pc higher from the previous close at a volume-weighted average (VWA) of $728/t. Front-month Ice July gasoil futures were trading 6pc higher at $683.75/t.

Israel launched the strikes in the early hours of Friday local time, targeting military infrastructure linked to Iran's nuclear programme. Israeli officials described the operation as an act of self-defence, warning that Iran is now closer than ever to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The escalation has raised concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Mideast Gulf, a key source of diesel and jet fuel for Europe. Iran could move to close the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for global energy flows — which would halt exports of ultra-low sulphur diesel and jet from regional producers such as Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. A naval blockade could also restrict LNG shipments from Qatar, tightening gas supply and raising operating costs for European refiners.

Despite the sharp rise in flat prices, some market participants questioned the sustainability of the rally. Front-month gasoil futures had already eased from a peak of $706.50/t reached during Asian trading hours.

A Singapore-based middle distillates trader said many participants were stepping back to "watch the market closely". A European diesel trader also expressed doubt over how long the gains would hold.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

10/07/25

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

US biofuel support clears way for new crush capacity

New York, 10 July (Argus) — North American oilseed crushers told Argus that projects to increase processing capacity are on track for the next year, potentially enabling more renewable fuel production. After a difficult start to the year for biofuel producers, US policymakers are increasingly making clear that they want refiners to up their output in future years and rely more on domestic feedstocks like soybean oil. That could pave the way for more oilseed crush capacity to come online, after some facilities delayed or cancelled plans over the last year on stagnant demand. Companies confirmed to Argus that more than 620,000 bu/d of new soybean and canola crush capacity were on track to come online in North America in the next year, and other facilities that did not respond to requests for comment have plans in the coming years too. Greater vegetable oil supply also could at least partly address concerns from oil and biofuel refiners that Republicans' protectionist approach to biofuels threatens feedstock shortages and price spikes. A multi-seed crush facility under construction in Mitchell, South Dakota — which will be able to process up to 96,000 bu/d of soybeans — is scheduled to start up this October, South Dakota Soybean Processors chief executive Tom Kersting told Argus. US crush company Ag Processing similarly said that a new 137,000 bu/d soybean crush plant in David City, Nebraska, will open "later this year". In Canada, Cargill confirmed that a 121,000 bu/d canola processing plant in Regina, Saskatchewan is also on track to open this year. In the first half of next year, French agribusiness Louis Dreyfus said it plans to complete two major projects in North America. The company plans to open a 151,000 bu/d soybean crush plant in Upper Sandusky, Ohio, and to double capacity to more than 240,000 bu/d at a canola crush facility in Yorkton, Saskatchewan. US soybean oil futures have climbed by 12pc in the past month on recent policy shifts, providing more incentive for processors — already crushing more soybeans than ever before — to expand production. The US recently proposed record-high biofuel blend mandates for the next two years, projecting that domestic soybean oil production could increase by 250mn USG/yr. And President Donald Trump over the weekend signed legislation that retools a crucial US tax credit to increase subsidies for crop-based fuels. Canadian canola processors, which depend on US incentives because Canada's biofuel sector is far smaller, benefit less from some of these policy shifts. While US fuels made from Canadian feedstocks can still claim the tax incentive next year, the Trump administration has proposed halving credits generated under the biofuel blend mandate for fuels made from foreign feedstocks. That makes US soybean oil a far more attractive input for US refiners than Canadian canola oil. A Canadian farm cooperative earlier this year paused plans for a combined canola crush and renewable diesel plant in Regina, Saskatchewan, citing "regulatory and political uncertainty". And Bunge was vague about its plans for building the world's largest canola crush plant in the same city, which was initially envisioned to start up last year. The US-based agribusiness, which recently took over the project with its acquisition of Viterra, told Argus it was "focused on integration to ensure a smooth transition for our customers" and "may be able to provide an update in the near future". Even then, canola oil stands to benefit from increased demand from food companies if more US soybean oil is diverted to fuel markets. And despite recent struggles for other Canadian biorefineries, ExxonMobil subsidiary Imperial Oil has plans to soon open a 20,000 b/d renewable diesel plant in Alberta that will draw on canola oil. Canadian policymakers have taken steps to assuage local feedstock suppliers and refiners, including a domestic renewable fuel mandate in British Columbia and a proposed mandate in Ontario. Biofuel production and oilseed crush margins also will depend on interactions with other policies, including a temporary tax break through 2026 in the US for small biodiesel producers — historically more reliant on vegetable oils than more versatile renewable diesel plants — as well as low-carbon fuel standards in the US west coast region and Canada. The perennial risk for any company is that policy, especially around biofuels, often swings unexpectedly. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria's NNPC reviewing refinery rehabilitation plans


10/07/25
10/07/25

Nigeria's NNPC reviewing refinery rehabilitation plans

Vienna, 10 July (Argus) — Nigeria's state-owned oil firm NNPC is reassessing the viability of rehabilitating its Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, chief executive Bashir Ojulari said today. Speaking on the sidelines of the Opec seminar in Vienna, Ojulari said efforts to restart the refineries have not progressed as planned and are now under review. "A lot of effort has been put in place to see if they could be rejuvenated. Those efforts have not been fully concluded in the way that we want them to be concluded," he said. NNPC has engineering contracts in place for the rehabilitation of its 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt, 125,000 b/d Warri and 110,000 b/d Kaduna refineries. The company restarted 60,000 b/d of capacity at Port Harcourt late last year but shut it down again in May. It also restarted Warri in December and ramped crude runs to 78,000 b/d before shutting the plant in January. Ojulari said the company is conducting a "deep dive, life-cycle review" of the projects, which is expected to be completed by the end of the year. "Our ambition is to make sure that we utilise whatever is useful in the structures, but also be free to bring in any new additional elements that can make things work," he said. He added that NNPC must review the projects without falling victim to "sunk cost syndrome". Ojulari also said NNPC remains committed to increasing its stake in Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, where it currently holds a 7.2pc interest. The company had previously planned to raise its stake to 20pc. Ojulari, a former Shell executive, became NNPC chief executive in April, succeeding Mele Kyari. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US


10/07/25
10/07/25

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Rio de Janeiro, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday. He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage". He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus. Brazil has run a trade deficit for goods and services with the US adding up to over $400bn over the last 15 years, finance minister Fernando Haddad said in a televised interview. "This is an eminently political decision, because there is no economic rationale in this measure," he said. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods. The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations. The tariffs can "severely hamper production, investments and supply chains between the two countries," US-Brazilian chamber of commerce Amcham said. The tariffs bring uncertainty to the country's oil and gas sector, Brazil's oil chamber IBP said. Crude is Brazil's main export to the US, accounting for $5.8bn last year. "We are cautiously assessing the true impacts on investments and competitiveness on our industry," IBP said. The Brazilian real slumped against the US dollar in the wake of Trump's announcement, dropping to R5.6/$1 on Thursday morning before rallying slightly. A weaker real increases production costs for Brazilian companies who rely on imports. A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries. "I don't think that this situation will continue," Haddad said of the "unsustainable" 50pc levy, highlighting Brazil's diplomatic tradition. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US


10/07/25
10/07/25

Brazil eyes retaliatory tariffs on US

Rio de Janeiro, 10 July (Argus) — Brazil will consider reciprocal tariffs if US president Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat of a 50pc charge on imports from Brazil, its president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," Lula posted on social media late on Wednesday. He defended Brazil's sovereignty and said the country "will not accept any form of tutelage". He rebutted Trump's claim that the US has a "very unfair trade relationship with Brazil", pointing to its long-running trade surplus. The US is Brazil's second-largest trading partner behind China, receiving $40.3bn worth of exports in 2024, according to the Brazilian secretary of foreign trade. It is the main market for Brazilian manufactured goods. The national confederation of industries (CNI), a lobby group, called for negotiations with the Trump government "to preserve the countries' historical trade relationship". A group representing the powerful agribusiness lobby in congress, FPA, also called for diplomatic negotiations. A letter that Trump sent on Wednesday to Lula is one of the 22 that the US leader has sent to his foreign counterparts since 7 July, announcing new tariff rates that the US will charge on imports from those countries. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050


10/07/25
10/07/25

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3mn b/d, driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East and a shifting policy landscape that it says is reinforcing fossil fuels' role in the global energy mix. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in the group's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), repeating a line he used in last year's edition and underscoring Opec's ongoing rejection of forecasts that see oil use peaking before 2030. Opec argues that such forecasts underestimate demand growth in developing economies and overstate the pace of the energy transition. The 2025 WOO lifts Opec's 2050 oil demand projection to 122.9mn b/d, from 120.1mn b/d in last year's WOO. Its 2040 forecast is revised up to 120mn b/d from 117.8mn b/d. The 2030 outlook is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, but the group sees a steeper rise in demand in the later years of the forecast. While the overall trajectory remains consistent with last year's WOO, the new report places greater emphasis on policy recalibration in major economies. It highlights growing political resistance to decarbonisation targets — particularly in the US and parts of Europe — and said energy affordability and supply security are increasingly shaping national strategies. These shifts, Opec suggests, are slowing the pace of energy transitions and supporting continued oil demand growth. The 2025 WOO adopts a more cautious tone on electrification, citing infrastructure and cost challenges, and acknowledges the geopolitical effect of the US' second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — a development not covered in last year's edition. India leads the pack India makes the biggest single contribution to the long-term demand increase. Opec forecasts the country's oil use to more than double from 2024, to 13.7mn b/d by 2050. Demand in China, on the other hand, rises in the medium term but flattens after 2035, reflecting slower economic growth and rising electric vehicle uptake. OECD demand is projected by Opec to edge up to 46.6mn b/d by 2030 — from 45.7mn b/d in 2024 — before entering a steady decline. By 2050, it is put at 37.2mn b/d, led by sharp reductions in Europe's transport and residential sectors. The sectoral breakdown remains broadly unchanged from last year. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation account for most of the demand growth between 2025 and 2050. Oil use in road transport is forecast to rise by 5.3mn b/d, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.7mn b/d. Supply to match demand On the supply side, Opec projects global liquids output at 113.6mn b/d by 2030 and 123mn b/d by 2050. It still expects US production to peak at just over 23mn b/d around 2030, before falling to 19.6mn b/d by mid-century. Non-Opec+ supply is seen plateauing in the 2030s, with Opec+ producers expected to meet most of the incremental demand, lifting their share of global supply to 52pc by 2050 from 48pc in 2024. Opec estimates $18.2 trillion of investment will be needed to meet oil demand through to 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in the 2024 report. Of the total, $14.9 trillion — more than 80pc — is allocated to upstream. The group reiterated that underinvestment could threaten future supply security and market stability. The report notes refining capacity is expected to keep pace with long-term demand growth, but warns of a potential short-term tightening later this decade as the rise in oil demand outpaces new capacity — particularly in Asia-Pacific. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more