Electronic interference rising in Mideast Gulf: UKMTO

Spanish Market: Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products
16/06/25

Electronic interference within the waters of the Mideast Gulf and the strait of Hormuz are at elevated levels, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said today.

The UKMTO "has received multiple reports… that there is increasing electronic interference within the waters of the Gulf," it said. Monitoring of automatic identification systems (AIS) by the UKMTO has confirmed the finding, it said.

The warning comes during a new escalatory cycle between Israel and Iran that was triggered by a series of air and missile strikes by Israel on several key Iranian military and nuclear sites on 13 June.

Iran responded with ballistic missile and drone strikes on military targets in Israel, including the Kirya complex in Tel Aviv, which houses the defence ministry headquarters.

The two sides have been exchanging missile fire with increasing intensity ever since, with critical energy infrastructure being hit.

The UKMTO said electronic interference across the wider region has been rising in this period, which is "having a significant impact on vessels' positional reporting" through automated systems.

It advised vessels transiting through Mideast Gulf and nearby waters to do so "with caution" and continue to report incidences of electronic interference.

By Nader Itayim

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08/07/25

French diesel, HVO customs data mislabelled: Eurostat

Barcelona, 8 July (Argus) — French firms have mislabelled imports of 10ppm diesel as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) this year, following confusion over new customs codes, EU data service Eurostat has said. The confusion has come about after the introduction of a new import-export (CN) code for HVO that took effect at the start of 2025. Some French data will be restated. A diesel code of 27101943 was discontinued at the end of 2024 and was replaced by 27101944. A new CN code 27101942 for HVO was introduced. HVO is produced by treating vegetable oil with hydrogen, counts against biodiesel blend mandates, but is molecularly separate from biodiesel output by esterification. When customs data for 2025 began to be published at the end of the first quarter, France appeared to be importing large amounts of HVO from Saudi Arabia and the US. Cargoes from the former amounted to around 255,000t in the first quarter. Saudi Arabia has no HVO production known by Argus , nor does it re-export cargoes. It is France's largest diesel supplier. There were also 140,000t labelled as HVO from the US in January-March. But because the EU has anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US HVO imports, shipments of this size appeared questionable. The US is the second biggest diesel supplier to France. The mislabelling has made French and EU HVO traffic difficult to track. It has distorted French diesel import data , which show imports have fallen sharply. Argus first questioned the numbers in March when initial 2025 customs data were released. These queries were rebuffed, but after a follow up in May Eurostat said French customs had "confirmed that there has been an input error". New data will be supplied by France at an unspecified time this year, it said. By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

07/07/25

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

Calgary, 7 July (Argus) — Alberta and Ontario plan to study new trade routes to boost economic activity between the two provinces and beyond, with an interest in exporting oil and gas through Hudson Bay, leaders said today. Alberta premier Danielle Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford signed two memorandums of understanding to drive interprovincial trade and major infrastructure development, including pipelines and rail lines. The broad intent is to further connect Alberta's energy resources to Canada's most populous province, and on to foreign partners, using steel from Ontario. "Built using Ontario steel, new pipelines would connect western Canadian oil and gas to existing, and potential, new refineries in southern Ontario," said Ford during a joint press conference in Calgary, Alberta. A "potential" new deep sea port at James Bay on the south side of Hudson Bay in northern Ontario would also enable further export opportunities for land-locked Alberta, which is trying to get more pipelines built before growing oil sands production fill existing capacity. Oil and gas would need to flow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Ontario. Alberta has taken an all-of-the-above strategy in its pipeline pursuits, calling for more egress in all directions, including enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets via a 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline to British Columbia's (BC) coast. "Having access to the northwest BC coast is essential to being able to get to Asian markets, and that's the one that we hear the most enthusiasm for," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith, who expects to have some "good news" on that front in a few months. Federal regulations need to be undone: premiers Smith and Ford called on the federal government to significantly amend or outright repeal the onerous Impact Assessment Act and other legislation that has stifled investment, including the oil and gas emissions cap, Clean Electricity Regulations and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act that currently prevents an oil pipeline to BC's northwest coast. "No one will build a pipeline to tidewaters if there is a ban on tankers," said Ford. "It is the craziest thing I've ever heard of . . . a ban on tankers." Ford is the latest premier to side with Alberta's stance on federal oversight after Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe did in June . Ford's automobile , steel and aluminum sectors have been caught in US president Donald Trump's crosshairs, spurring the premier to look elsewhere to shore up trade, including within Canada. But hostilities from south of the border are not new for Ontario, whose refining sector relies on Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 cross-border pipeline. "We have the governor of Michigan constantly threatening to close down the pipeline," said Ford. "Do you know the disaster that would create in Ontario?" To both kickstart a lagging economy and pivot away from the US, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney fast-tracked Bill C-5 through Parliament last month to allow "nation building" projects to bypass regulatory hurdles. To be considered for the new "National Interest Projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. "The days of relying on the United States 100pc, they're done, they're gone," said Ford. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low

07/07/25

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low

London, 7 July (Argus) — Nigerian imports of European gasoline fell to a record low in June, according to Kpler tracking data, as rising output from the country's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery sharply reduced demand for the product from the EU, UK and Norway. The drop in Nigerian buying pulled overall west African imports of European gasoline to a four-month low of 926,000t, down from 1.315mn t in May and 20pc lower year-on-year. Nigeria, long the region's largest gasoline importer, slipped behind Togo last month as the Dangote refinery hit its highest monthly run rate since coming online. The country is approaching a turning point in its gasoline trade balance. June arrivals into Nigeria from Europe fell by 56pc on the month to 231,000t — the lowest recorded by Kpler. It also imported 28,000t from offshore Lome and 12,000t from Houston, leaving a total of 271,000t. At the same time, Dangote loaded a record 252,000t of gasoline for export last month. This included 90,000t aboard the Pis Kerinci to Sohar, Oman; 89,000t on the Hafnia Larissa to Pasir Gudang, Malaysia; 35,000t on the Sabaek to Abidjan, Ivory Coast; and a further 39,000t aboard the Sabaek , which has yet to discharge. The country could be on the verge of flipping to net exporter status, given the Dangote refinery has "extra plant capacity to produce gasoline", according to Dangote Group executive director Edwin Devakumar. The plant's naphtha hydrotreating unit has "flexibility to achieve additional production", and Dangote has recently begun buying naphtha to support gasoline output, he said. The fall in Nigerian demand for gasoline imports, combined with weaker-than-expected US consumption, is raising concerns over outlet options for European gasoline this summer, a European trader told Argus . Europe remains a large net exporter of the product. Benchmark non-oxy gasoline barge cracks to front-month Ice Brent crude futures averaged $14.73/bl between 1–4 July, broadly steady on the year and slightly up from $14.62/bl in the same period of 2024. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European jet premiums collapse on Ice gasoil strength

07/07/25

European jet premiums collapse on Ice gasoil strength

London, 7 July (Argus) — European jet fuel premiums to Ice gasoil futures have nearly disappeared after a steady fall since the ceasefire between Israel and Iran at the end of June, although outright values remain elevated. Argus assessed cif northwest European jet fuel at just a $2.50/t premium to front-month Ice gasoil futures on Friday, 4 July, down from almost $60/t less than two weeks earlier. It is the lowest premium since March 2023. An analyst said the premium has "fallen off a cliff" since the end of conflict between Iran and Israel erased concerns about supply tightness . A ceasefire was called on 24 June, and has held, and jet fuel premiums have continuously fallen since then. Jet premiums are being squeezed in part by strength in Ice gasoil futures — the underlying value in Argus' European middle distillate assessments. Ice gasoil prices also cooled along with tensions in the Middle East, but remained relatively high and are rising again. Having been below $650/t for most of the April-early June period, prices peaked at almost $800/t during the conflict and have stayed above $700/t so far in July. This strength in the underlying futures is keeping outright jet fuel prices above $700/t, after they mostly averaged below that since early April. Jet fuel values typically rise in summer to reflect air travel demand, but with Ice gasoil already high and supply appearing ample to meet peak summer demand, there is little incentive further rises to either premiums or outright values. Jet premiums to Ice gasoil were between $40-60/t and outright values were above $700/t across the whole of summer 2024. Diesel overtakes jet Market participants said significant tightness in the diesel market has caused the rally in Ice gasoil futures. A unviable arbitrage in May and the first half of June muted imports from the Mideast Gulf and India, and an analyst said all arbitrage opportunities for diesel into Europe currently appear closed. Product suitable for blending marine gasoil (MGO) — which is in high demand bow the Mediterranean emissions control area (ECA) has come into force — is restricting gasoil available for diesel blending. This is leading to considerable backwardation in Ice gasoil contracts . The July contract was $44/t above the August contract on 4 July, a 32-month high. Diesel's premium to Ice gasoil futures has surpassed that of jet fuel for the first time since March 2023. Outright cif northwest European diesel prices were more than $7/bl above jet on 4 July, even though jet usually commands a premium at this time of year. This was diesel's widest premium to jet since the same period. Market participants expect jet fuel premiums to rebound but said backwardation must first narrow, which should happen as diesel market tightness eases. Higher diesel imports could come in August, as shipping fixtures indicate the very large crude carrier (VLCC) Nissos Keros may load diesel for northwest Europe in the next few weeks. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

07/07/25

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

New York, 7 July (Argus) — US shale producers expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they initially planned to at the start of the year, dealing a potential blow to President Donald Trump's goal of unleashing energy dominance. Almost half of the executives quizzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its second-quarter 2025 energy survey have scaled back their anticipated drilling in response to lower crude prices. The decline was most notable among the large operators — or those with output of at least 10,000 b/d — that now account for about 80pc of total US production, according to the bank. The anonymous survey, which gauges the pulse of the shale heartland, has become an outlet for industry insiders to vent their growing frustration at the Trump administration, and executives from exploration and production (E&P) firms offered a withering criticism of the president's tariff policies and unrelenting push for lower oil prices that have contributed to an industry-wide slowdown. "It's hard to imagine how much worse policies and DC rhetoric could have been for US E&P companies," one unidentified executive wrote. "We were promised by the administration a better environment for producers but were delivered a world that has benefited Opec to the detriment of our domestic industry." The survey found that activity contracted slightly in the three months to the end of June, with firms becoming increasingly uncertain about the outlook. "The key point from this survey release is that conditions deteriorated for companies in the oil and gas sector this quarter, with survey responses pointing to a small decline in overall activity as well as oil and gas production," Dallas Fed senior business economist Kunal Patel says. The deteriorating outlook for shale comes as the Opec+ group has stepped up efforts to unwind past output cuts, which might help it to regain market share. But the White House argues that efforts to remove permitting obstacles will help the homegrown oil industry to thrive over the longer term, bolstered by Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill that paves the way for expanded oil and gas leasing. Still, that did not stop executives in the latest Dallas Fed survey from complaining that Trump's " Liberation Day chaos " has jeopardised the sector's prospects, and recent volatility is inconsistent with the president's "Drill, baby, drill" mantra. One drew attention to calls from some within the White House for a price target of $50/bl. "Everyone should understand that $50 is not a sustainable price for oil," the executive said. "It needs to be mid-$60s." Firms were also asked about how their production would change at lower prices. A slight decline was expected if oil prices hovered around $60/bl over the next 12 months, while a significant pullback was anticipated if oil retreated as far as $50/bl. Steel yourself About a quarter of producers estimated that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by as much as 6pc. And about half of the surveyed oil field services firms expect a recent increase in US steel import tariffs to result in a slight decline in customer demand in the next year. "Despite efforts to mitigate their impact, the scale and breadth of the tariffs have forced us to pass these costs on to our customers," one services firm executive wrote. "This comes... when the economics of oil and gas production are already challenged due to the dynamics of global oil supply and demand." On top of this, firms expect challenges related to the huge volumes of water produced alongside oil in the top Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico to act as a constraint on drilling in the next five years. "Water management continues to disrupt plans and add significant costs," one executive said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Electronic interference rising in Mideast Gulf: UKMTO

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