US formalizes auto imports quota for UK

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Metals
16/06/25

A US-UK trade deal formalized today establishes a quota for UK-made cars to be imported into the US and lifts tariffs on aircraft parts but glosses over an earlier promise to carve out quotas for UK-sourced steel and aluminum.

US president Donald Trump and UK prime minister Keir Starmer unveiled the finalized agreement today, on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada.

Both leaders offered praise for the deal — Trump called the countries' relationship "fantastic" and Starmer said it was a "really important day".

While details are few, the agreement limits the number of UK-built cars that can be imported into the US at 100,000 and imposes a 10pc tariff on those vehicles. The US since 3 April has been charging a 25pc tariff on all imported cars. The deal also calls for lifting US tariffs on UK-made aircraft equipment.

The Trump administration pledged in early May to carve out a quota system for UK-sourced steel and aluminum. Trump on 4 June raised tariffs on foreign sourced steel and aluminum to 50pc but kept the tariff rate for the UK at 25pc.

The agreement signed today merely promises that the US administration would do so "at a future time".

If a quota system is established for the UK, it would allow importing steel and aluminum without the 25pc tariff, the White House said.

The trade agreement keeps in place a broad 10pc tax on all imports from the UK, which Trump imposed on 2 April as part of his "Liberation Day" tariff announcement that cited an "economic emergency" created by US trade deficits.

A US federal appeals court on 31 July will hear arguments from the administration and from a group of plaintiffs, including many US states, who are challenging Trump's authority to impose tariffs by citing economic emergencies.

Trump imposed tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, cars and auto parts by using a different authority, which has so far not been challenged in courts.

The trade deal with the UK is one out of two, in addition to a preliminary deal with China, that the administration has negotiated since Trump began to impose tariffs on nearly every US trading partner — after promising in early April to conclude "90 deals in 90 days".

Trump said today, "We have our trade agreement with the EU, and we have other many, many other ones coming that you will see."

The Trump administration has not presented any other trade agreement yet.

By Haik Gugarats

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07/07/25

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

Calgary, 7 July (Argus) — Alberta and Ontario plan to study new trade routes to boost economic activity between the two provinces and beyond, with an interest in exporting oil and gas through Hudson Bay, leaders said today. Alberta premier Danielle Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford signed two memorandums of understanding to drive interprovincial trade and major infrastructure development, including pipelines and rail lines. The broad intent is to further connect Alberta's energy resources to Canada's most populous province, and on to foreign partners, using steel from Ontario. "Built using Ontario steel, new pipelines would connect western Canadian oil and gas to existing, and potential, new refineries in southern Ontario," said Ford during a joint press conference in Calgary, Alberta. A "potential" new deep sea port at James Bay on the south side of Hudson Bay in northern Ontario would also enable further export opportunities for land-locked Alberta, which is trying to get more pipelines built before growing oil sands production fill existing capacity. Oil and gas would need to flow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Ontario. Alberta has taken an all-of-the-above strategy in its pipeline pursuits, calling for more egress in all directions, including enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets via a 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline to British Columbia's (BC) coast. "Having access to the northwest BC coast is essential to being able to get to Asian markets, and that's the one that we hear the most enthusiasm for," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith, who expects to have some "good news" on that front in a few months. Federal regulations need to be undone: premiers Smith and Ford called on the federal government to significantly amend or outright repeal the onerous Impact Assessment Act and other legislation that has stifled investment, including the oil and gas emissions cap, Clean Electricity Regulations and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act that currently prevents an oil pipeline to BC's northwest coast. "No one will build a pipeline to tidewaters if there is a ban on tankers," said Ford. "It is the craziest thing I've ever heard of . . . a ban on tankers." Ford is the latest premier to side with Alberta's stance on federal oversight after Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe did in June . Ford's automobile , steel and aluminum sectors have been caught in US president Donald Trump's crosshairs, spurring the premier to look elsewhere to shore up trade, including within Canada. But hostilities from south of the border are not new for Ontario, whose refining sector relies on Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 cross-border pipeline. "We have the governor of Michigan constantly threatening to close down the pipeline," said Ford. "Do you know the disaster that would create in Ontario?" To both kickstart a lagging economy and pivot away from the US, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney fast-tracked Bill C-5 through Parliament last month to allow "nation building" projects to bypass regulatory hurdles. To be considered for the new "National Interest Projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. "The days of relying on the United States 100pc, they're done, they're gone," said Ford. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

07/07/25

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

New York, 7 July (Argus) — US shale producers expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they initially planned to at the start of the year, dealing a potential blow to President Donald Trump's goal of unleashing energy dominance. Almost half of the executives quizzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its second-quarter 2025 energy survey have scaled back their anticipated drilling in response to lower crude prices. The decline was most notable among the large operators — or those with output of at least 10,000 b/d — that now account for about 80pc of total US production, according to the bank. The anonymous survey, which gauges the pulse of the shale heartland, has become an outlet for industry insiders to vent their growing frustration at the Trump administration, and executives from exploration and production (E&P) firms offered a withering criticism of the president's tariff policies and unrelenting push for lower oil prices that have contributed to an industry-wide slowdown. "It's hard to imagine how much worse policies and DC rhetoric could have been for US E&P companies," one unidentified executive wrote. "We were promised by the administration a better environment for producers but were delivered a world that has benefited Opec to the detriment of our domestic industry." The survey found that activity contracted slightly in the three months to the end of June, with firms becoming increasingly uncertain about the outlook. "The key point from this survey release is that conditions deteriorated for companies in the oil and gas sector this quarter, with survey responses pointing to a small decline in overall activity as well as oil and gas production," Dallas Fed senior business economist Kunal Patel says. The deteriorating outlook for shale comes as the Opec+ group has stepped up efforts to unwind past output cuts, which might help it to regain market share. But the White House argues that efforts to remove permitting obstacles will help the homegrown oil industry to thrive over the longer term, bolstered by Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill that paves the way for expanded oil and gas leasing. Still, that did not stop executives in the latest Dallas Fed survey from complaining that Trump's " Liberation Day chaos " has jeopardised the sector's prospects, and recent volatility is inconsistent with the president's "Drill, baby, drill" mantra. One drew attention to calls from some within the White House for a price target of $50/bl. "Everyone should understand that $50 is not a sustainable price for oil," the executive said. "It needs to be mid-$60s." Firms were also asked about how their production would change at lower prices. A slight decline was expected if oil prices hovered around $60/bl over the next 12 months, while a significant pullback was anticipated if oil retreated as far as $50/bl. Steel yourself About a quarter of producers estimated that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by as much as 6pc. And about half of the surveyed oil field services firms expect a recent increase in US steel import tariffs to result in a slight decline in customer demand in the next year. "Despite efforts to mitigate their impact, the scale and breadth of the tariffs have forced us to pass these costs on to our customers," one services firm executive wrote. "This comes... when the economics of oil and gas production are already challenged due to the dynamics of global oil supply and demand." On top of this, firms expect challenges related to the huge volumes of water produced alongside oil in the top Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico to act as a constraint on drilling in the next five years. "Water management continues to disrupt plans and add significant costs," one executive said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

05/07/25

Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

London, 5 July (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have agreed to further speed up their plan to increase crude production, the Opec secretariat said on Saturday. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will raise their collective crude production target by 548,000 b/d in August, relative to July. This compares with previous month-on-month hikes of 411,000 b/d for May, June and July. This pace is also four times faster than the eight's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. The decision means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just five months. Should the eight opt for another 548,000 b/d increase for September, they will have fully unwound the cuts 12 months earlier than planned. That would shift focus to a second layer of voluntary cuts totalling 1.66mn b/d that is being implemented by the same eight producers plus Gabon, which are scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. The move comes against a backdrop of continued economic uncertainty, largely driven by US trade policy and a rise in geopolitical risk due to the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war. Supply fears linked to the conflict helped push front month Brent futures to above $81/bl on 23 June, although prices have since fallen back to about $68/bl – below where many producers prefer. But the eight countries once again cited "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as the basis for their decision. They also reiterated, as in previous months, that the "increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." One delegate told Argus that they agreed with the decision given the current strength in refining margins, but also that there may not be the same opportunity to return some of these barrels later in the year. This appears to be a reference both to the seasonal uptick in demand with the summer in the northern hemisphere, and to projections of weaker oil demand in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. Another delegate told Argus that there were no diverging views to the decision taken today, compared to the previous meeting when two member countries pushed to pause the monthly hikes. The actual increases in Opec+ production may fall short of the headline figure, given that some members are already producing above their targets and almost all of the eight have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. The group noted that the faster pace would help facilitate this compensation. The group is scheduled to meet again on 3 August to decide on September production levels. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ 8 likely to speed up output hike for August

05/07/25

Opec+ 8 likely to speed up output hike for August

Dubai, 5 July (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members are likely to agree to further accelerate a plan to return production when they meet later on Saturday, according to delegate sources. The group is considering expediting the process further with a 550,000 b/d increase to its collective crude production target in August, compared to the previous hikes of 411,000 b/d agreed for May, June and July, delegates told Argus. This pace is four times faster than the eight members' – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan – original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. One delegate said it is very likely that the group agrees on this course of action. If the group goes ahead with the 550,000 b/d increase, it means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just 5 months. Expectations ahead of today's policy meeting were that the group would agree to another 411,000 b/d for the month of August. The eight raised their collective target by 137,000 b/d in April, and subsequently by 411,000 b/d in the months of May, June and July. By Bachar Halabi, Nader Itayim and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Eurometal conference focuses on protectionism/autarky

04/07/25

Eurometal conference focuses on protectionism/autarky

London, 4 July (Argus) — The themes of trade protection and greater self-sufficiency dominated discussions at Eurometal's 75th anniversary conference in Luxembourg this week, where sentiment remained distinctly downbeat. European mills are suffering from high import penetration and softening demand. Axel Eggert, director-general of European steel association Eurofer, said 128pc of traditional import flows can enter the market duty-free, while demand has fallen by 30mn t in recent years, giving imports an outsize share. In "normal" market environments, imports would decline alongside demand, rather than increase, Eggert added, suggesting domestic capacity utilisation was close to 65pc, a level at which it is difficult to turn a profit. Illustrating the difficulties of the sector, Tata Steel is axing one in three white-collar jobs and one in five blue-collar jobs, as it looks to find a more sustainable footing. Tata's Ijmuiden plant is the lowest cost slab plant in western Europe. Eurometal itself is lobbying for import measures on steel intensive goods, as demand for product sold by its members has been affected by cheaper imports of components and finished products from Asia. Eurometal represents steel distributors and importers. Its president, Alexander Julius, reiterated calls for evidence from members, and the wider supply chain, of difficulties caused by downstream imports. On the sidelines of the conference, one automotive supplier said there was no chance for European businesses to compete with Asia. He cited Chinese electric vehicles being sold at around $20,000, much cheaper than western alternatives. China's strong grip over the battery supply chain gives it an advantage that will be difficult to overcome, he said. The European Commission understands the plight of the industry and is eager to act, but executional performance is the big key, speakers and attendees said; bureaucracy in the EU and its intention to remain WTO-compliant hampers speedy implementation of policies, delegates said. Anthony de Carvalho, head of the OECD's steel unit, said policymakers are much more aware of the situation facing the industry and have real ambition to take tangible actions — one-fifth of trade measures are being circumvented, according to WTO analysis. Europe will remain less competitive than other geographies, according to Antonio Marcegaglia, head of Europe's largest coil importer, Marcegaglia. He supported the need for stricter safeguards and tariffs, but also said Europe needed to avoid isolationism, given its high energy costs and likely need to depend on imports of certain products, such as direct reduced iron. Marcegaglia said decarbonisation was an "ideological agenda" that had not fully considered the impact on industry, while also challenging the benefit such policies had on financial market participants, while leaving the actual industry hamstrung. Marcegaglia also said there will likely be big cuts in Chinese production, as the country cannot rely on low-priced exports, given increased trade barriers. Julian Verden, managing director of London trader Stemcor, remained outspoken in his support for imported product. In response to Eggert's presentation, he said the safeguard was "designed to create an ideal market for the producer" and was much too punitive, especially without real-time quota tracking. Another speaker told Argus that competitiveness at a local level is defined by the global market, and that tariffs can only be a temporary reprieve where companies should work on their own efficiency and competitiveness. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US formalizes auto imports quota for UK

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