Updates with details throughout
US president Donald Trump is taking an increasingly bellicose tone toward Iran following Israel's devastating military strikes, while the White House national security council is discussing Washington's next steps in a conflict that could engulf the world's largest oil producing region.
Trump, in a social media post today, called for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" — without specifying what that would entail. He claimed that "we now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran", seemingly linking the US to the Israeli attack. And he said that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, "is an easy target", but added: "We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."
The White House, meanwhile, began to spread a narrative that suggested that the US could join in Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, even if Tehran does not directly attack US interests or personnel in the region.
Trump "has shown remarkable restraint in keeping our military's focus on protecting our troops and protecting our citizens," vice president JD Vance posted on social platform X, adding that Trump "may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment".
Trump cut short his visit to the G7 leaders summit in Canada to return to Washington Monday night. The US administration has come under intense lobbying from the isolationist wing of politicians loyal to Trump, who have called publicly for him not to commit US military personnel and resources to attack Iran.
Senate Democrats, in turn, began to circulate legislation demanding that Trump ask for authorization from Congress before using military force against Iran.
Trump blasted former Fox News anchorman Tucker Carlson as "kooky" for arguing vociferously against US participation in any attack in Iran. Trump, at the same time, criticized French president Emmanuel Macron for suggesting that Trump's early exit from the G7 summit was meant to work toward a ceasefire in the Middle East.
"People are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy," Vance said. "But I believe the president has earned some trust on this issue."
Trump, in stump speeches during the presidential campaign and since reclaiming the White House, has frequently denounced his predecessors for entangling the US in wars in the Middle East.
In a speech in Riyadh last month, Trump offered "peaceful engagement" to Tehran and criticized his predecessors as "the interventionists (who) were intervening in complex societies they did not understand".
Since Israel first launched its attack on Iran on 13 June, the US has warned Tehran not to target US forces in retaliation. Iran has taken no such step and has called on Trump to restrain Israel from further attacks to allow US-Iran nuclear diplomacy to resume.
Iran in recent years has relied on its proxy networks in Iraq, Syria and Yemen to launch attacks on US forces. The degree of Tehran's remaining control over those proxy groups is uncertain.
Iran also has not tried to block vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that in 2023 accounted for 27pc of global maritime oil trade.
Targeting vessel traffic in Hormuz would mark an irreversible escalation in the conflict, with damaging consequences for Iran as well as the global oil trade.
Iran's Mideast Gulf neighbors, which have invested in better relations with Tehran in recent years, are watching the prospect with concern.
"The UAE stands for dialogue, de-escalation and diplomacy," Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc chief executive Sultan al-Jaber said at an energy forum in Washington today. "We call on parties to show restraint, and we reaffirm our belief in peace over provocation."
US energy secretary Chris Wright was scheduled to speak at the same forum, hosted by think tank the Atlantic Council, but he abruptly cancelled his appearance to participate in the White House discussions on Iran.
The US is rushing military, naval and air assets to the Middle East, saying the buildup is aimed at enabling Israel to protect itself from Iranian missile strikes.
While Israel has targeted the majority of Iranian nuclear sites, it likely will be unable to destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear enrichment facility on its own.
Fordow suffered only minor damage in recent days, and Israel appears to believe that leaving the plant operational would mean a failure of a key military goal, said retired general Frank McKenzie, who served as the commander of Middle East-based US forces in 2019-2022.
"I'm certain they're going to get around to Fordow as it may be, trying to get us into the conflict," McKenzie said on Monday. "But I don't see how we get in unless we're attacked, and the Iranians have been very careful about not doing that up until now."
