Rising dry bulk freight rates driven by concerns around Israel's attacks on Iran are weighing on fob US Gulf prices for petroleum coke and boosting cfr prices, despite overall weak demand.
"Freight [rates] are extremely strong, and this is putting heavy pressure on the fob prices," one trader said. "Freights for the next weeks are crazy."
"You have almost a 10pc jump up in freights in the last three trading days," another trader said, as the freight market reacted to Israeli strikes against Iran that began on 13 June, sparking concerns over Middle East oil supply and the possibility of an additional war risk premium on marine insurance. Bunker prices in Fujairah, UAE, the world's third-largest marine fuels hub, have surged.
Supramax freight rates from the US Gulf to India, one of the most common routes for petroleum coke, increased by $4-$5/t since last Thursday, while other shorter key routes, like the US Gulf to Turkey, have risen by $2-$3/t, according to multiple coke market participants. The Argus Supramax freight rate from the US Gulf to west coast India rose to $41.45/t on 16 June, up from $38.10/t on 12 June, while the US Gulf to Turkey rate jumped to $27/t from $24.05/t.
Freight rates were already rising prior to the start of the conflict. "A month ago, there were a ton of ships in the Gulf, but a lot of those ships have been repositioned," a third trader said. "Vessel supply is not as healthy as it was a month or two ago."
The additional concerns around marine insurance and higher bunkers are contributing to a "sugar high" among vessel owners, pushing them to raise offer levels as they feel confident in their positions for the time being, the third trader said.
The increase has resulted in a jump in offer prices for US Gulf coke in India, and some deals have been heard done at significantly higher levels than in the latter half of last week. US Gulf coke sales were heard in the $106-$107/t range on a cfr west coast India basis in recent days, up from deals in the $100-$103/t range prior to 13 June. But many traders said these higher levels are not necessarily repeatable, as most large Indian buyers have not raised bids from the low-$100s/t. It is unlikely that Indian buyers will absorb the full increase in freight rates, since many are already adequately covered with fuel inventory, and coal prices are increasingly competitive. This means that sellers will need to lower expectations on an fob US Gulf basis to keep trade flowing.
Traders will likely absorb much of the fob price impact, as they are holding most prompt cargoes at the moment. US Gulf high-sulphur supply is fairly tight, which is providing support to fob levels.
"The thing is, if you call the refiners and ask for something, either they're not going to have it or it'll be higher" than Argus' last assessment on 11 June of $68/t for US 6.5pc sulphur fob US Gulf coke, the third trader said. "But nothing is netting back to $68 in any market right now when you take the freights into account."
High-sulphur supply from Saudi Arabia was also already tight, and the tensions in the region could further disrupt shipments, especially from the Saudi Aramco-TotalEnergies Satorp joint venture 460,000 b/d Jubail refinery, located across from Iran on the country's eastern coast. Shipments from this refinery must move through the strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and the UAE, which some worry Iran could potentially block. Vessel owners are already looking to avoid traveling to this region.
