Trump again brings up regime change in Iran

Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
23/06/25

President Donald Trump's administration is trying to articulate what it ultimately aims to achieve in Iran, after directly involving the US in the Israel-Iran war over the weekend.

Senior administration officials took to the TV news shows on Sunday to assert that Washington is not trying to topple the government in Iran. They claimed that the US bombing raids, in the early hours of Sunday Tehran time, caused irreparable damage to Iran's nuclear program. And they suggested that the US will not carry out additional air strikes unless Iran retaliates against US interests in the region or targets vessel traffic in the strait of Hormuz.

But Trump then contradicted his own administration's message by posting on his social media platform: "If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!"

Iran has responded with tough rhetoric to the US air strikes but did not hit back at US interests across the region, even though Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile attacks.

Tehran said today that US airstrikes have expanded the range of legitimate military targets for its armed forces, while a senior Iranian lawmaker said the parliament has concluded that the strait of Hormuz "should be closed".

The strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit route, with around 17mn b/d of crude and refined products — roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade — passing through it. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in past confrontations but has never followed through on that rhetoric. In the past, Tehran has targeted or seized vessels transiting the waterway, prompting some shipowners to consider alternative routes.

Crude oil futures, which in the run-up to the US attack already reflected risk premiums associated with potential disruption to oil flows from the Mideast Gulf, rose in early trading in Asia today but eased later in the day.

Trump, who has frequently touted declines in oil prices during his second administration, posted today: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!"

He then posted, "To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!"

The Energy Department cannot mandate how much crude US oil companies produce, but it does control the US emergency oil stocks.

Uncertainty ahead

The Pentagon has been more restrained than Trump and his national security advisers in providing an assessment of the air strikes. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, general Dan Caine said on Sunday that initial assessments indicated that Iran's nuclear facilities suffered "extremely severe damage and destruction" but noted that it was too early to say whether Iran maintains any nuclear capability.

Trump by contrast posted about "monumental damage" and asserted that "obliteration is an accurate term" in reference to Iran's nuclear sites.

"Sometimes we have a tendency to think that a military solution can insert some certainty into a situation," said retired general Joe Votel, who commanded Middle East-based US forces in 2016-19. "But I think what we're seeing here is that there still is a significant amount of uncertainty about what is going to take place."

It will take time to accurately assess the impact of US air strikes on Iran's nuclear program, Votel said today during a discussion hosted by think tank the Middle East Institute.

The UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, said on 22 June that no increases in off-site radiation levels had been reported following the US strikes.

The eventual shape of Iran's response is a further cause of uncertainty, Votel said. "Do they have a surprise for us, if they held something in reserve that we're going to see revealed here?" An Iranian counter-attack aimed at the US would invite more US strikes. But if Iran's response proves muted or non-existent, "will we be going back?," he asked. "And then, how does all this conclude?"

The US embassy in Qatar today issued a "shelter in place" warning to US citizens in the country, which hosts the largest US air force base in the region. The US embassy did not cite a specific threat, noting that the warning was out of an "abundance of caution". The UK embassy issued a similar warning to British citizens.

By Haik Gugarats

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07/07/25

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

Calgary, 7 July (Argus) — Alberta and Ontario plan to study new trade routes to boost economic activity between the two provinces and beyond, with an interest in exporting oil and gas through Hudson Bay, leaders said today. Alberta premier Danielle Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford signed two memorandums of understanding to drive interprovincial trade and major infrastructure development, including pipelines and rail lines. The broad intent is to further connect Alberta's energy resources to Canada's most populous province, and on to foreign partners, using steel from Ontario. "Built using Ontario steel, new pipelines would connect western Canadian oil and gas to existing, and potential, new refineries in southern Ontario," said Ford during a joint press conference in Calgary, Alberta. A "potential" new deep sea port at James Bay on the south side of Hudson Bay in northern Ontario would also enable further export opportunities for land-locked Alberta, which is trying to get more pipelines built before growing oil sands production fill existing capacity. Oil and gas would need to flow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Ontario. Alberta has taken an all-of-the-above strategy in its pipeline pursuits, calling for more egress in all directions, including enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets via a 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline to British Columbia's (BC) coast. "Having access to the northwest BC coast is essential to being able to get to Asian markets, and that's the one that we hear the most enthusiasm for," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith, who expects to have some "good news" on that front in a few months. Federal regulations need to be undone: premiers Smith and Ford called on the federal government to significantly amend or outright repeal the onerous Impact Assessment Act and other legislation that has stifled investment, including the oil and gas emissions cap, Clean Electricity Regulations and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act that currently prevents an oil pipeline to BC's northwest coast. "No one will build a pipeline to tidewaters if there is a ban on tankers," said Ford. "It is the craziest thing I've ever heard of . . . a ban on tankers." Ford is the latest premier to side with Alberta's stance on federal oversight after Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe did in June . Ford's automobile , steel and aluminum sectors have been caught in US president Donald Trump's crosshairs, spurring the premier to look elsewhere to shore up trade, including within Canada. But hostilities from south of the border are not new for Ontario, whose refining sector relies on Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 cross-border pipeline. "We have the governor of Michigan constantly threatening to close down the pipeline," said Ford. "Do you know the disaster that would create in Ontario?" To both kickstart a lagging economy and pivot away from the US, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney fast-tracked Bill C-5 through Parliament last month to allow "nation building" projects to bypass regulatory hurdles. To be considered for the new "National Interest Projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. "The days of relying on the United States 100pc, they're done, they're gone," said Ford. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

07/07/25

Drilling slowdown undermines Trump’s energy dominance

New York, 7 July (Argus) — US shale producers expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than they initially planned to at the start of the year, dealing a potential blow to President Donald Trump's goal of unleashing energy dominance. Almost half of the executives quizzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its second-quarter 2025 energy survey have scaled back their anticipated drilling in response to lower crude prices. The decline was most notable among the large operators — or those with output of at least 10,000 b/d — that now account for about 80pc of total US production, according to the bank. The anonymous survey, which gauges the pulse of the shale heartland, has become an outlet for industry insiders to vent their growing frustration at the Trump administration, and executives from exploration and production (E&P) firms offered a withering criticism of the president's tariff policies and unrelenting push for lower oil prices that have contributed to an industry-wide slowdown. "It's hard to imagine how much worse policies and DC rhetoric could have been for US E&P companies," one unidentified executive wrote. "We were promised by the administration a better environment for producers but were delivered a world that has benefited Opec to the detriment of our domestic industry." The survey found that activity contracted slightly in the three months to the end of June, with firms becoming increasingly uncertain about the outlook. "The key point from this survey release is that conditions deteriorated for companies in the oil and gas sector this quarter, with survey responses pointing to a small decline in overall activity as well as oil and gas production," Dallas Fed senior business economist Kunal Patel says. The deteriorating outlook for shale comes as the Opec+ group has stepped up efforts to unwind past output cuts, which might help it to regain market share. But the White House argues that efforts to remove permitting obstacles will help the homegrown oil industry to thrive over the longer term, bolstered by Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill that paves the way for expanded oil and gas leasing. Still, that did not stop executives in the latest Dallas Fed survey from complaining that Trump's " Liberation Day chaos " has jeopardised the sector's prospects, and recent volatility is inconsistent with the president's "Drill, baby, drill" mantra. One drew attention to calls from some within the White House for a price target of $50/bl. "Everyone should understand that $50 is not a sustainable price for oil," the executive said. "It needs to be mid-$60s." Firms were also asked about how their production would change at lower prices. A slight decline was expected if oil prices hovered around $60/bl over the next 12 months, while a significant pullback was anticipated if oil retreated as far as $50/bl. Steel yourself About a quarter of producers estimated that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by as much as 6pc. And about half of the surveyed oil field services firms expect a recent increase in US steel import tariffs to result in a slight decline in customer demand in the next year. "Despite efforts to mitigate their impact, the scale and breadth of the tariffs have forced us to pass these costs on to our customers," one services firm executive wrote. "This comes... when the economics of oil and gas production are already challenged due to the dynamics of global oil supply and demand." On top of this, firms expect challenges related to the huge volumes of water produced alongside oil in the top Permian basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico to act as a constraint on drilling in the next five years. "Water management continues to disrupt plans and add significant costs," one executive said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

05/07/25

Opec+ 8 speeds up output hike to 548,000 b/d for August

London, 5 July (Argus) — Eight core Opec+ members have agreed to further speed up their plan to increase crude production, the Opec secretariat said on Saturday. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan will raise their collective crude production target by 548,000 b/d in August, relative to July. This compares with previous month-on-month hikes of 411,000 b/d for May, June and July. This pace is also four times faster than the eight's original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. The decision means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just five months. Should the eight opt for another 548,000 b/d increase for September, they will have fully unwound the cuts 12 months earlier than planned. That would shift focus to a second layer of voluntary cuts totalling 1.66mn b/d that is being implemented by the same eight producers plus Gabon, which are scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026. The move comes against a backdrop of continued economic uncertainty, largely driven by US trade policy and a rise in geopolitical risk due to the recent 12-day Israel-Iran war. Supply fears linked to the conflict helped push front month Brent futures to above $81/bl on 23 June, although prices have since fallen back to about $68/bl – below where many producers prefer. But the eight countries once again cited "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories" as the basis for their decision. They also reiterated, as in previous months, that the "increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions." One delegate told Argus that they agreed with the decision given the current strength in refining margins, but also that there may not be the same opportunity to return some of these barrels later in the year. This appears to be a reference both to the seasonal uptick in demand with the summer in the northern hemisphere, and to projections of weaker oil demand in the second half of 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. Another delegate told Argus that there were no diverging views to the decision taken today, compared to the previous meeting when two member countries pushed to pause the monthly hikes. The actual increases in Opec+ production may fall short of the headline figure, given that some members are already producing above their targets and almost all of the eight have pledged to compensate for past overproduction. The group noted that the faster pace would help facilitate this compensation. The group is scheduled to meet again on 3 August to decide on September production levels. By Aydin Calik, Bachar Halabi and Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ 8 likely to speed up output hike for August

05/07/25

Opec+ 8 likely to speed up output hike for August

Dubai, 5 July (Argus) — A core group of eight Opec+ members are likely to agree to further accelerate a plan to return production when they meet later on Saturday, according to delegate sources. The group is considering expediting the process further with a 550,000 b/d increase to its collective crude production target in August, compared to the previous hikes of 411,000 b/d agreed for May, June and July, delegates told Argus. This pace is four times faster than the eight members' – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, Oman and Kazakhstan – original plan to unwind 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts at a rate of 137,000 b/d each month between April 2025 and September 2026. One delegate said it is very likely that the group agrees on this course of action. If the group goes ahead with the 550,000 b/d increase, it means they will have restored almost 80pc of a scheduled 2.46mn b/d increase — which includes a 300,000 b/d capacity-related adjustment for the UAE — in just 5 months. Expectations ahead of today's policy meeting were that the group would agree to another 411,000 b/d for the month of August. The eight raised their collective target by 137,000 b/d in April, and subsequently by 411,000 b/d in the months of May, June and July. By Bachar Halabi, Nader Itayim and Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to lay out tariff demands in coming days: Trump

04/07/25

US to lay out tariff demands in coming days: Trump

London, 4 July (Argus) — The US will lay out its tariff demands on foreign trade partners in the coming days, President Donald Trump said today. From tomorrow, 5 July, Trump will send letters to 10-12 countries a day, with the aim that all countries will be "fully covered" by 9 July, Trump said. That rate will not cover the amount of tariff deals still to be done by the US, which to date has struck three deals — of 10pc with the UK and China and of 20pc with Vietnam. "[The tariffs will] range in value from maybe 60pc or 70pc tariffs to 10pc and 20pc tariffs," Trump said. Countries will start paying them on 1 August, he said. Since 5 April Washington has been charging a 10pc extra tariff on imports — energy commodities and critical minerals are exceptions — from nearly every foreign trade partner, and those rates could go higher after 9 July. Trump has justified those tariffs by citing an economic emergency caused by allegedly unfair trade practices in foreign countries, and his administration is engaged in talks with foreign governments with the nominal goal of lowering their trade barriers. By Haik Gugarats and Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump again brings up regime change in Iran

Uncertainty ahead

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