Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach

Spanish Market: Crude oil
24/06/25

US president Donald Trump today criticised both Israel and Iran over what he said were violations of a ceasefire agreement he helped broker to end a 12-day conflict between the two countries.

"We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the [expletive deleted] they're doing," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for the Nato summit in The Hague.

Trump said Iran fired a missile at Israel after the ceasefire deadline had passed, and that it missed its target. "Now Israel is going out," he said, adding that he was also unhappy with Israel's response.

"I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload, and I didn't like the fact that the retaliation was very strong," he said.

Trump had announced that the ceasefire would begin around midnight ET on 24 June, ending nearly two weeks of hostilities that included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of 21-22 June.

Earlier today, Israel accused Iran of firing missiles after the ceasefire took effect and vowed to retaliate. Iran's military denied the claim, according to Iranian state media.

Trump then took to his Truth Social platform to urge Israel not to respond. "DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!"

He later posted that Israel would not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" he said.

Trump also commented on the US strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure over the weekend.

"I think it's been completely demolished. I think the reason we're here is because those pilots, those B-2 pilots, did an unbelievable job," he said. The extent of the damage has not been independently verified.

Trump added that Iran would not be able to rebuild its Fordow nuclear facility — the country's main site for enriching uranium to 60pc. "Iran will never rebuild its nuclear… From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished," he said.

By Bachar Halabi

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18/07/25

Brazil's Bolsonaro put under police surveillance

Rio de Janeiro, 18 July (Argus) — Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro has been fitted with an ankle monitor after police raided his home in the capital Brasilia, the latest in a series of court-ordered measures that point to a worsening of his legal situation that could deepen tensions between Brazil and the US. Bolsonaro — who is on trial before the supreme court for an attempted coup — has been ordered to remain at home during certain hours and has been banned from social media and from communicating with foreign diplomats and other defendants. The new measures imposed by the court come in the wake of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose 50pc tariffs on imports from Brazil starting 1 August. Trump said the threat is linked to Bolsonaro's prosecution, calling the trial a "witch hunt". In a 47-page court filing, justice Alexandre de Moraes argued that Bolsonaro and his son Eduardo, a federal congressman, sought help from the US government to pressure Brazilian authorities to interfere in the legal process, calling it a "blatant assault on national sovereignty." Eduardo is in the US and has met with Trump several times to lobby in favor of his father. In response to the latest measure, Eduardo called Moraes a "political gangster in robes" who is "trying to criminalize Trump and the US government". In a televised address on Thursday, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called the tariff threat "unacceptable blackmail in the form of threats to Brazilian institutions". His government has set up an inter-ministerial committee to seek a solution to the impending tariffs . Speaking to journalists on Friday morning, Bolsonaro offered to appeal to Trump directly to resolve the issue. He denied attempting a coup or having plans to flee the country. His passport was seized by authorities in February 2024. By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron completes Hess takeover after arbitration win

18/07/25

Chevron completes Hess takeover after arbitration win

New York, 18 July (Argus) — Chevron is finally able to close its delayed $53bn acquisition of US independent Hess after an arbitration court ruled against ExxonMobil in a dispute over a share of Guyana's vast offshore riches. ExxonMobil argued it had a right of first refusal over Hess' 30pc stake in the giant Stabroek block, the key attraction behind Chevron's proposed takeover of the company, which was seen as vital in addressing concerns over Chevron's long-term growth prospects. An arbitration hearing was heard in private in London in late May after the two sides were unable to agree on a resolution. While ExxonMobil said today that it disagreed with the ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Tribunal, it would respect the arbitration and dispute resolution process. "We welcome Chevron to the venture and look forward to continued industry-leading performance and value creation in Guyana for all parties involved," a company spokesperson said. Chevron confirmed it had closed the acquisition after prevailing in the arbitration battle with its bigger rival. "This merger of two great American companies brings together the best in the industry," Chevron's chief executive officer Mike Wirth said. "The combination enhances and extends our growth profile well into the next decade." ExxonMobil is the operator with a 45pc stake in the Stabroek block off the coast of Guyana, where an estimated 11bn bl of oil equivalent have been discovered over the past decade. Both it and Chinese state-controlled CNOOC, which has a 25pc holding, had asserted pre-emption rights in relation to the Hess stake. Hess and Chevron had argued that such rights of first refusal do not apply in the event of a corporate takeover. The arbitration process had held up the takeover — first announced in late 2023 — which previously won approval from US anti-trust regulator the Federal Trade Commission as well as Hess shareholders. ExxonMobil has argued in the past that little would change if Hess ended up winning the arbitration case and Chevron went on to complete its acquisition. "We have partnerships with Chevron all over the world," ExxonMobil's senior vice-president Neil Chapman said back in May. "It's been no change in terms of how we're working together at all." By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Baghdad, Erbil reach deal on Ceyhan oil exports

17/07/25

Baghdad, Erbil reach deal on Ceyhan oil exports

Dubai, 17 July (Argus) — Iraq's federal government and its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region reached an agreement on allocation of oil production volumes, paving the way toward the restart of northern Iraqi crude exports through Turkey's Ceyhan port The terms of the agreement, which Iraq's government approved on Thursday, will require the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to immediately begin delivering at least 230,000 b/d of oil to Iraqi state marketer Somo for exports. In exchange, Baghdad will pay $16/bl — in cash or in kind — under the amended budget law, "as an advance to the Kurdish government," Iraq's government said. The delivered volumes are expected to increase at a later stage. The federal government said it will transfer the salaries of KRG public servants for the month of May, "after the federal ministry of oil or Somo confirms receipt of the full oil quantity — currently 230,000 b/d — at the Ceyhan port". The $16/bl figure referenced in the agreement reflects what the amended budget law stipulates foreign oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region are to be paid for production and transportation costs. Baghdad also explicitly acknowledged KRG's estimate of the total oil production in the region, at 280,000 b/d. As part of the deal, 50,000 b/d will be allocated for the Kurdistan region's domestic use, with the KRG covering the associated costs of production and transfer. Net revenues from those volumes will be transferred to the federal treasury. A source within the international oil companies (IOCs) operating in Kurdistan told Argus that the firms are concerned about being compensated for the 50,000 b/d allocated for local consumption. "IOCs still need a clear plan for how they will receive payment for the $1bn in arrears," the source said, adding, "the KRG and the federal government need to swiftly agree on the scope of work for the independent consultant." The budget law amendment passed in January stipulates that an international consulting firm is to be tasked with auditing the costs of production and transportation in the Kurdistan region. Baghdad and Erbil have yet to agree on the firm or its scope of work. The IOCs refuse to share with Iraq's oil ministry the existing contracts they have signed with the KRG. Meanwhile, the deal also suggests that Baghdad may supply Erbil with up to 15,000 b/d of refined products, if needed, based on a joint committee's assessment of the Kurdish region's needs. The assessment is due within two weeks. The KRG is also expected to transfer an estimated 120 billion Iraqi dinars ($92mn) in non-oil revenues for May to the federal Ministry of Finance. The Iraq-KRG deal is a "milestone toward the resumption of oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline," said the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan, an industry group representing foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan. The group said its members "anticipate additional discussions with [federal government] and KRG officials to establish written agreements prior to resuming exports." Negotiations between Baghdad and Erbil reached a conclusion just as drone attacks in Iraqi Kurdistan led foreign oil companies operating in the region to shut in more than 200,000 b/d of production as of Wednesday. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks. In the first public accusation voiced by a senior Kurdish official, former Iraqi foreign minister Hoshyar Zebari on Wednesday blamed the attacks on Wilaya-aligned factions — a group of Iran-backed militias. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

16/07/25

New tariff threat could disrupt Mexico GDP outlook

Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF held its 2025 GDP growth forecast steady at 0.1pc in its July survey but warned the outlook could deteriorate if the US raises tariffs to 30pc. The survey of 43 analysts maintained projections for year-end inflation at 4pc and for the central bank's benchmark interest rate to fall from 8pc to 7.5pc by the end of 2025. The sharpest variation came in formal employment, after Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported a net loss of 139,444 formal jobs in the second quarter. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 160,000 from 190,000 in June — the seventh and largest downgrade this year. Job losses increased in April, May and June, "a situation not seen since the pandemic in 2020," IMEF said. "If this trend is not reversed, the net number of formal jobs could fall to zero by year-end." "It is still too early to call it a recession, but the rise in job losses is worrying," said Victor Herrera, head of economic studies at IMEF. "The next risk we face is in auto plants. Some halted production after the 25pc US tariff was imposed in April. They did not lay off workers right away — they sent them home with half pay. But if this is not resolved in the next 60-90 days, layoffs will follow." The July survey was conducted before US president Donald Trump said on 12 July he would raise tariffs on Mexican goods from 25pc to 30pc starting 1 August. "What we have seen in the past is that when the deadline comes, the tariffs are postponed or canceled," Herrera said. "Hopefully, that happens again. If not, you can expect GDP forecasts to shift into contraction territory." While the full impact would vary by sector, Herrera said the effective average tariff rate would rise from 4pc to 15pc, with most exports either exempt or subject to reduced rates under regional content rules. But 8–10pc of auto exports would face the full 30pc duty. IMEF expects the peso to end 2025 at Ps20.1/$1, stronger than the Ps20.45/$1 estimate in June. But the group warned that rising Japanese rates — which influence currency carry trades — and falling Mexican rates could put renewed pressure on the peso once the dollar rebounds. For 2026, the GDP growth forecast dropped to 1.3pc from 1.5pc, while the peso is seen ending that year at Ps20.75/$1, slightly stronger than the previous Ps20.90/$1 forecast. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Vessel identified in Venezuelan oil sanctions busting

16/07/25

Vessel identified in Venezuelan oil sanctions busting

Caracas, 16 July (Argus) — A watchdog group said it has identified 15 oil tankers used to circumvent US sanctions against crude sales from Venezuela. The vessels take part in a system of clandestine ship-to-ship transfers off the Venezuelan coast at night, according to the report from the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International, which is operating in exile. The transfers happen on a regular basis, with ship transponders turned off and with no oversight or safety monitoring from port authorities. Many of the ships that enter the sanctions-busting trade were inactive or soon-to-be scrapped — such as the Aframax Cape Balder , which was once listed as inactive and set to be scrapped, according to the report. Many of the ships also change names when starting in the sanctioned shipments realm, such as the Panamax Nabiin , which was formerly known as Euroforce , according to the report. Most of the cargoes end up in China where they are rebranded as Brazilian, Malay or Singaporean crude, according to the report. Of the 15 vessels identified, five are registered in the Comoro Islands, four in Panama, and the rest in other locations. They include seven very large crude carriers (VLCCs), seven Panamax and one Aframax. Aside from the financial incentives, Venezuela relies so heavily on the crude smuggling schemes to deal with a shortage of oil storage, according to the report. Since the first round of US sanctions on the country started in 2019, storage space in the country's Bajo Grande and Ule sites has tightened significantly and has at times forced a reduction in crude production. The other ships named in the report include: the VLCC Varada Blessing; Panamax Jacinda; Panamax Petrogaruda; VLCC Vieira; VLCC Longevo; VLCC Alice; Panamax Sinar G; VLCC Champ; VLCC Latitude; VLCC Ekta; Panamax Colon; Panamax Tailwinds; Panamax Veronica. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach

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Brazil's Bolsonaro put under police surveillance

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Chevron completes Hess takeover after arbitration win

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