Mexico's trade balance returned to surplus territory in May, as higher crude export volumes helped to offset drags on manufacturing from US tariffs.
Mexico recorded a $1.03bn trade surplus in May, statistics agency Inegi reported Thursday, swinging from a $88mn deficit the previous month.
Total exports in May were valued at $55.5bn, while imports reached $54.4bn. The surplus was wider than Mexican bank Banorte's forecast of $279mn.
The balance reflects the trade deficit in oil-related products narrowing to $2.11bn in May from $2.87bn in April, as well as a rebounding surplus in non-oil trade to $3.14bn from $2.78bn in April.
Mexico ran a $2.04bn trade surplus for the January-May period, including a $10.96bn surplus in non-oil trade and a $8.92bn deficit in oil-related trade. This reflects the longer-term trend of growing non-oil exports set against widening deficits of oil-related goods.
Manufacturing exports — especially autos — have been the most affected by US tariffs enacted in March and April.
Despite US exemptions tied to trade treaties, Mexico still faces an average effective US tariff rate of 11.9pc — the eighth highest globally and the highest in the western hemisphere, according to Fitch Ratings.
The auto industry is also participating in negotiations to soften steel and aluminum tariffs to prevent further supply chain disruptions.
Manufacturing exports fell by 0.6pc in May after a 0.7pc drop in April. Auto exports declined by 1.3pc in May, following a 4.8pc fall in April.
Inegi reported a 10.3pc annual drop in the value of auto exports to the US in May, after an 8pc decline in April. Exports had surged 6.5pc in March as companies rushed shipments ahead of tariff implementation.
Agricultural exports contracted by 2.6pc in May from the previous month after rising 2pc in April, while non-oil mining exports contracted 2.9pc after surging 26pc in April.
Oil-related exports totaled $2.06bn in May — $1.33bn in crude and $722mn in refined products — compared with $1.83bn in crude alone in April. This comes despite a stronger peso and lower oil prices.
Mexico's crude export mix averaged $57.88/bl in May, down $2.94/bl from April and $16.51/bl below the year-earlier level. Crude export volumes rose to 743,000 b/d from 693,000 b/d in April but remained below the 930,000 b/d exported in May 2024.
