Canada's federal government is courting energy companies with the passage of a new law designed to fast-track major projects, but some developers might have reservations after a decade of frustration under Liberal party rule.
Prime minister Mark Carney has pushed Bill C-5 through parliament to spark investment and project development by promising faster approval times while circumventing onerous rules made by previous Liberal-led governments. Oil and gas firms see this as a positive step, but with the law comes familiar ambiguity.
To be considered for the new "national interest projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of indigenous groups and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. How well a project satisfies these requirements will be at the discretion of Carney's cabinet and requires a leap of faith for supporters and opponents to trust the new process.
Developers can expect a tighter two-year time limit for a federal decision, but how quickly the government navigates indigenous and environmental aspects remains to be seen. Such a consultation was seen as crucial under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, and Carney plans to strike a balance between these aspects and economic development. "Bill C-5 doesn't reform Canada's burdensome regulatory system, which is preventing needed investment," think-tank the Fraser Institute says. "It simply lets politicians decide who gets around it."
Some indigenous and environmental groups fear that their concerns about potential projects might be played down under the new fast-track process. Such groups were critical of the legislation, not only because of its implications, but because the bill was fast-tracked, meaning debate and study were truncated.
Steel of a deal
Oil-rich Alberta's premier, Danielle Smith, and counterparts from other provinces are letting Carney's plan play out — for now. "You can only talk the talk for so long before you start putting some real action around it," Smith says, adding that she wants Alberta's projects on Carney's fast-track list by the autumn.
Projects to move energy flows to Canada's east are once again being contemplated, with Smith signing an initial agreement last week with Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, which has been feeling the force of US tariff action. The two leaders will study more oil and gas pipelines between the two provinces built using Ontario steel — a prospect not possible under Trudeau.
"Carney is no Justin Trudeau," Ford says, adding that Carney, unlike his predecessor, is bringing "the business approach to the federal government".
Free enterprise is Alberta's forte, with TD Economics projecting the province to be a key economy for energy growth in 2025-26. An estimated C$17bn ($12bn) will be invested in oil sands in 2027, up by 28pc from 2024, the Alberta Energy Regulator says. Smith hopes to maintain strong capital inflow by securing more pipeline options, having set a goal of doubling Alberta's oil output from 4mn b/d in 2024.
An economic revival seems poised to unfold across Canada, with a proposed LNG export project in Baie-Comeau, Quebec, unveiled this month, just days after LNG Canada's 14mn t/yr west coast facility loaded its first cargo. Quebec premier Francois Legault confirmed his team has discussed the Baie-Comeau project with developers. Federal energy minister Tim Hodgson suggested last week that itcould be considered for the national interest list if Quebec and the developers brought it forward. The scheme is a notable departure for Quebec, which — along with the federal government — cancelled a proposed LNG project in Saguenay in 2021 for environmental reasons.
