US President Donald Trump's planned 50pc tariffs on copper imports could drive significant changes in the domestic industry. Argus spoke with American Pacific Mining chief executive Warwick Smith and managing director of exploration Eric Saderholm — owners of several copper assets in the US — on the short and long-term copper outlook. Edited highlights follow:
Will the expected 50pc copper import tariffs play a lasting role in changing US production and smelting capacity?
Saderholm: Copper tariffs will greatly impact copper-centric companies. Both miners and downstream users will certainly be affected.
The overall tariff moves are somewhat founded but I do not know if they will work across the board, especially for producing and refining domestic copper.
The problem lies in the fact that while the US has significant copper reserves, it will take a long time to build new mines. The US really has no way to keep up with the copper production needed to be self-reliant.
We must have smelting capabilities as well. Our processing techniques have been compromised over the last several decades, especially with smelters. We have allowed many US smelters to be blown up, removed, or become nonfunctional. The US government will have to think about funding the construction of smelters.
Smith: The copper "tariff talk" from the White House has already started to play a role, as prices drastically increased following the tariff announcement.
Larger US refined copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto, will likely need to start acquiring new copper sources under development. As larger companies scramble to look for US-based copper assets to build new mines, smaller companies with assets in the US will see stronger demand.
Considering the inverse US dollar/copper price relationship and the falling dollar in the last year, do you see further incentives for more investment?
Smith: I think this area of investment to move these assets forward has been under appreciated and under financed for at least a decade, up until the last two months.
More money will continue to come into the market out of necessity, not because of a sudden shift.
The world is heading in an increasingly "green" direction, which requires copper. We are seeing that partially play out now. I think there will be more significant investment into both major mid-tier and smaller mining companies that focus on copper as well.
With the IEA and others warning of a copper deficit by 2035, do you expect the US to run into supply issues with current production capabilities?
Smith: I think the short answer is yes because of an escalating supply-demand imbalance. The US will need to catch up in terms of production and finding new assets.
Expediting permitting timelines will also be key to catching up on production. Not only is there a need to find new mines, but a need to permit them quickly enough to get them into production and drive those assets forward.
What efforts by the current administration to shorten permitting, construction and start up times would contribute the most to additional capacity?
Smith: They have come up with the FAST 41 transparency list focused on expediting strategic metal projects. The FAST 41 list is quite smart.
Anecdotally speaking, getting exploration permits has become a lot quicker than under the Biden administration. We have worked since the Obama administration and Republicans do make things move a lot quicker.
There is a project that we own in Nevada that under Obama, took us 6.5 weeks to get permits to drill. Under Trump, the first permit approval took four days.
That is just exploration drilling now when you think about permitting in mind. You can extrapolate those timelines virtually the same way. It makes a big difference. From that standpoint, we like what they are doing.
Some of the Department of Defense funding has also been very helpful. They have put a lot of money into that as well. I think they are doing a lot of the right things on that front.
Saderholm: The expedited permitting initiatives are a bit of a double-edged sword. With Trump taking office at the beginning of the year, he wanted a lot of federal jobs to be eliminated. We have had issues with the lack of personnel. Even though they want to fast-track permits, there are not a whole lot of people to fast track them for you.
Where do your Palmer VMS and Madison Mine projects stand currently?
Smith: The Madison asset in Montana is our flagship. It is a really high-grade skarn surface with a porphyry underneath. We're wrapping up some drilling there and will lead another drill campaign shortly.
The location is great as well. It is 40 miles from one of the largest porphyries in the world. It has the hallmarks that it could be a big winner for us.
We also own 100pc of the Palmer project, a 16.7mn tonne volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) project up in Alaska. We have had many discussions about the project with other groups interested in the asset. The asset is probably 8-10 years away from production.
