US steelmakers were generally bullish about future demand during their second quarter earnings reports, but added that clarity around the US' steel import tariffs would be needed first to support domestic production.
US mills viewed domestic demand as a bright spot compared to outlooks in other regions, because federal and private investment in infrastructure and manufacturing could provide a reliable base of demand stretching beyond 2025. Global steelmakers with operations in the US were similarly bullish for the region, especially as tariffs cut off the US market and threatened to push supply that would have gone there to other parts of the world.
The US on 12 March imposed 25pc tariffs on all imports of steel and some derivatives, eliminating some exemptions to section 232 tariffs that had existed since 2019. Those tariffs were doubled to 50pc on 4 June — effectively cutting off the US as an import market — and more derivatives were added to the steel tariffs on 15 August.
Nucor, one of the largest steelmakers in the US, was confident the US production base could cover all the demand that imports no longer served. Several major mills in the US increased shipments year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, even while some sites experienced disruptions.
Some producers were worried about potential tariffs on Brazilian pig iron, a key feedstock for US steel manufacturing, but its exemption from tariffs that were discussed by the White House last month will keep US production costs lower than they would have been otherwise.
US mills generally supported increasing tariffs on imports to protect domestic industry, but some admitted it was leading to near-term hesitancy among buyers while federal policy was still being finalized.
Producers struggled to keep prices higher for various steel grades in part because tariff uncertainty slowed order demand for some service centers. Prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil (CRC), and hot-dipped galvanized (HDG) steel all declined over the course of the second quarter, Argus data show.
The demand outlook was much more mixed globally. Producers in Asia and Brazil were particularly concerned about Chinese steel flowing into their markets following US tariffs, especially with Chinese domestic demand faltering. Some Canadian producers, meanwhile, also struggled to navigate the shifting North American trade relationship, looking for government support in some cases to offset expected losses in their order books.
