Mexico's trade deficit widened in August to $1.94bn, on reduced manufacturing exports, a wider oil deficit and rising non-oil imports.
The $1.94bn deficit in August widened from a narrow $17mn deficit in July and $514mn surplus in June, statistics agency Inegi data show. Exports totaled $55.72bn, while imports reached $57.66bn.
The August balance reflects the deficit in oil-related products widening to $2.24bn in August from $2.14bn in July, as well as the surplus in non-oil trade narrowing to $293mn in August from $2.13bn the previous month.
With these results, the accumulated deficit over the last 12 months stood at US$1.09bn, with a $23bn deficit in the oil component and a $21.9bn surplus in non-oil trade, where the oil balance in August was impacted by reduced export volumes and lower global oil prices, noted Mexican bank Banorte.
Oil-related exports reached $1.64bn in August — down from $1.87bn in July, including $1.16bn in crude sales and $479mn in refined products. Crude export volumes fell to 594,000 b/d from 692,000 b/d in July, holding well below the 769,000 b/d exported in August 2024.
Mexico's crude export mix averaged $62.93/bl in August, down $0.20/bl from July and $8.12/bl from the year-earlier level.
Non-oil exports fell to $54.08bn from $54.84bn in July, with the value of manufacturing exports, down to $51.71bn in August from $52.37bn a month earlier. Yet, auto-related exports increased in August to $16.16bn from $15.9bn in July. Manufacturing accounted for 65pc of Mexico's industrial production in 2024, with autos alone contributing 16pc.
US tariffs have weighed on manufacturing exports, particularly of autos and parts, and "disruptions to Mexico's trade balance will continue" in the remainder of 2025 and moving into 2026, said Banorte.
"We believe that we will continue to see volatility in both outflows and inflows", said the bank, susceptible to the upcoming review of the USMCA free trade agreement, and how the changing tariff landscape will define Mexico's relative trade position versus competitors.
Other influences include the US planned increase in the flat tariff rate on Mexico to 30pc from 25pc, postponed for 90 days on 1 August – a period ending in late October.
Banorte also cited two initiatives pending in Mexico's congress that could raise tariffs and affect port entry and customs clearance processes, as adding factors that could add to trade uncertainty.
