Updates with more data from port agent
Crude supplies from northern Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan export terminal are continuing to increase following the long-awaited restart of flows through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline on 27 September.
"Export volumes are expected to reach full capacity in the next few days based on the continued ramp up of pipeline availability," said London-listed Gulf Keystone, which operates the 40,000 b/d Shaikan field in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The Botas storage facility at the Ceyhan terminal has received 150,000 bl in the last 24 hours, according to the daily report by port agent Boutros. A similar volume was received the 24 hours prior. This, combined with supplies kept in crude tanks from March 2023 when pumping through the pipeline was stopped, leaves around 1.8mn bl in total available, according to Boutros.
An as yet-unknown tanker will arrive at the terminal soon to load 600,000 bl or 1mn bl, Boutros said. It was not immediately clear where this tanker will head after loading at Ceyhan. It will be followed by the T.Suna, which will load a smaller volume to take to Aliaga for Turkish state-owned Tupras' 238,000 b/d Izmir refinery, Boutros added.
Prior to pipeline closure, all volumes of Iraqi medium sour Kirkuk crude marketed by federal oil marketing firm Somo went to Tupras. This averaged around 71,000 b/d in 2022, according to Argus tracking data.
Flows through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline restarted on 27 September following a deal between Iraq's federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government and international oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
The pipeline previously carried 400,000–450,000 b/d of Kirkuk to Ceyhan, but was shut in March 2023 after an arbitration ruling against Turkey.
Volumes are not expected to return to pre-shutdown levels in the near term. Iraqi oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani said the agreement would see around 180,000–190,000 b/d of Kurdish crude delivered to Somo for export from Ceyhan, while some 50,000 b/d would be allocated to the Kurdistan region for domestic use. Any surplus volumes would be eligible for export.
The Iraqi Kurdistan region's production capacity has declined since the pipeline was shut two-and-a-half years ago. Key fields are still recovering from multiple drone attacks earlier this year.
Following the pipeline closure, Kurdish producers began selling crude to local buyers at steep discounts.
