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US government shutdown delays construction data

  • Spanish Market: Chemicals, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 01/10/25

The US government's shutdown that started today will delay the release of monthly domestic construction spending data closely watched by a number of commodity markets, including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyurethane, asphalt, steel and non-ferrous metals.

The partial government shutdown started today and marks the first in six years after talks among lawmakers and the White House to reach a last-minute funding agreement failed.

The US Census Bureau, which was expected to release its monthly residential and commercial construction data today, anticipates 7pc of its 11,100 staff will be exempted from furloughs during the shutdown, but "most activities will cease", according to the bureau's updated shutdown plan.

The bureau's website today posted a message saying information would not be updated due to the lapse of funding and inquiries not answered until after funding has resumed.

The monthly report is a critical dataset for domestic PVC market participants and others because it provides insight into construction activities that consume large volumes of certain commodities, especially in the residential market.

Domestic PVC and polyurethane demand have remained under pressure this year on a weaker housing market. Participants are closely monitoring construction spending, housing starts and permits for a fundamental shift to stimulate demand, especially after the US Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate and announced a series of cuts during the fourth quarter.

The building blocks of polyurethanes, such as isocyanates including polymeric MDI (PMDI), go into insulation, roofing applications and carpet underlay.

It is unclear which other government agencies will delay releases or maintain operations. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes key data on employment, prices and inflation, plans to "completely cease operations" if funding lapses, according to a shutdown plan dated 26 September.

The US Department of Agriculture today added it will not update information on its website during the shutdown.


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19/11/25

Cop: Some 'reluctant' on shift from fossil fuels

Cop: Some 'reluctant' on shift from fossil fuels

Belem, 19 November (Argus) — Some countries are still "very reluctant" to accept including a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels in the UN Cop 30 climate summit's final documents, the event presidency said. A roadmap to phase down fossil fuels has become a key issue at Cop 30. An initial draft about issues not on the main agenda published by the presidency on Tuesday morning mentioned it, but over 80 countries asked the presidency to put it on formal negotiating tables . There are two categories of countries on roadmap negotiations: those that are "very favorable" or have "very negatives" views on it, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago told reporters. "Some groups [that have negative views on the roadmap] don't want that type of language on fossil fuels, while some developing countries don't want any more obligations, independently on which topic," Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said. Still, it is up to developed countries to take the lead on those negotiations, Correa do Lago said. One of the main hurdles to negotiating the roadmap has been how to implement it with solutions that are appropriate for each country, Correa do Lago said. "We really need to see the economic and social implications of the transitioning away [from fossil fuels] for each country and for different regions in each country." Additionally, there are many different interpretations on what needs to enter formal documents, he said. It has been hard to decide between what has to be negotiated and what can be implemented without a formal text, he added. The wording regarding the roadmap on the presidency's initial draft was considered weak by some delegates, according to Tina Stege, the climate envoy of the Marshall Islands, speaking for negotiating bloc the alliance of small island states. The presidency's draft "reflects something that opens the door" for negotiations between favorable and reluctant countries, Correa Lago said. So it is "natural" that the more favorable countries would expect something more ambitious. But Toni said that no group of countries has explicitly told the presidency that the initial draft's wording was "weak". Finance for adaptation One of the topics in which delegates have differed the most during negotiations is finance for adaptation, Brazil's chief climate negotiator Lilian Chagas said. Adaptation covers efforts to adjust to climate change where possible. The presidency's initial drafts included a proposal to triple adaptation finance from wealthier nations to developing countries. "The [global goal on adaptation"] is absolutely central and obviously the push for an increase in adaptation resources is significant", Correa Lago said. "And we want this to be an adaptation Cop". By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico’s $1tn debt looms over ratings, peso: IMEF


18/11/25
18/11/25

Mexico’s $1tn debt looms over ratings, peso: IMEF

Mexico City, 18 November (Argus) — Mexico's finance executives' association IMEF kept its 2025-2026 GDP growth forecast unchanged in November but warned the growing public debt could trigger credit downgrades next year. IMEF maintained its 2025 and 2026 GDP growth estimates at 0.5pc and 1.3pc, respectively, but stressed a high degree of uncertainty in next year's estimate, citing upcoming negotiations for the USCMA free trade agreement negotiations. In addition, the group raised concerns over Mexico's public sector debt, which IMEF estimates at $1.067 trillion as of September, nearly double the $560bn the finance ministry reported in 2018. The total includes debt held by Mexico's state-owned energy concerns, oil company Pemex and utility CFE, with both legally established as public companies under 2024 reforms. Announcing the renewal of Mexico's flexible credit line on 13 November, the IMF forecast the debt ratio rising to 60pc of GDP by 2030 and recommended reducing annual deficits to 2.5pc of GDP in the coming years. "The growing debt alone is not the problem," said IMEF. "The problem is that it's growing faster than GDP." Adding to this, is the inability of Pemex and CFE to pay down their debts without federal support, said the group. As of November 2025, Mexico's sovereign credit ratings from the major agencies are lower-medium investment grade, with Moody's rating two notches above speculative grade at Baa2 with a negative outlook. S&P Global Ratings has Mexico also two notches above speculative at BBB with a stable outlook. Fitch Ratins has Mexico just one notch above speculative at BBB- with a stable outlook. IMEF said losing investment grade would trigger "a significant depreciation" of the Mexican peso. The group projects the peso-dollar exchange rate to close 2025 at Ps18.8/$1, compared with the Ps19.00/$1 forecast in September. The currency traded at Ps18.3/$1 on Tuesday, compared with Ps20.8/$1 in April due to weakening of the dollar this year. Victor Herrera, IMEF's head of economic studies, said that "as positive and negative news about the USMCA begins to emerge, we could see the exchange rate moving in one direction or the other" in 2026. IMEF lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 3.8pc in the November survey, from 4pc in October. Annual CPI eased to 3.57pc in October (from 3.76pc in September)[https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article]. However, the group raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.9pc from at 3.8pc in its October survey. IMEF expects the central bank to cut its policy rate to 7.0pc from the current 7.25pc on 18 December, with additional cuts next year bringing the target interest rate to 6.5pc by the end of 2026. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Colombia’s economy grows 3.6pc in 3Q


18/11/25
18/11/25

Colombia’s economy grows 3.6pc in 3Q

Bogota, 18 November (Argus) — Colombia's economy expanded 3.6pc in the third quarter from a year earlier, as solid growth in the agriculture sector and stronger domestic demand helped offset a deepening contraction in the oil and mining industries. Most of the third-quarter expansion was attributable to increased household and business demand and a 2.4pc rise in agricultural activity, driven by higher exports of coffee and tropical fruits, the national statistics agency Dane said Tuesday. Manufacturing grew by 4.1pc while retail and wholesale trade grew by 5.6pc. The quarterly growth figure exceeded analysts' 2.9pc median estimate and the 2.1pc growth recorded in the second quarter. The mining and hydrocarbons sector contracted for a sixth consecutive quarter, shrinking 5.7pc in the third quarter from a year earlier. The decline follows a 10.2pc contraction in the second quarter and reflects the impact of a heavy tax burden, restrictions on coal exports, falling exploration activity, and deteriorating security conditions in key oil- and coal-producing regions. The coal subsector fell 5.6pc in the quarter, after dropping 14.6pc in the second quarter and falling 7pc in the first quarter. Exporters of coal and crude have been subject to a 1pc surcharge since late January to finance more military and social spending in the Catatumbo region in Norte de Santander department amid escalating violence in this region along the Venezuelan border. The administration of President Gustavo Petro has also used emergency powers in response to escalating violence along the Venezuelan border. In May, the government raised the withholding tax on coal miners to as much as 4.5pc, more than double the previous 2.2pc, adding financial pressure to an already strained sector. Miners have also protested Petro's decision to impose a total ban on steam-coal exports to Israel, closing a loophole that previously allowed some shipments to proceed. Mining accounts for 2.4pc of Colombia's GDP and is the country's second-largest export sector after oil. The oil subsector contracted 3.7pc in the third quarter, following a 6.9pc decline in the second quarter — the steepest drop since the hydrocarbon sector began weakening in early 2024. Reduced exploration activity, tax pressure and social unrest have weighed heavily on the industry, oil analyst Julio César Vera said. Colombia produced an average of 747,800 b/d of crude in January–September, a 3.8pc decrease from the same period a year earlier. By Diana Delgado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US to reissue cobalt tender


18/11/25
18/11/25

US to reissue cobalt tender

Houston, 18 November (Argus) — The US Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to reissue an updated tender for cobalt by the end of November and issue an award in early February, the agency told Argus on Tuesday. The DLA issued its initial tender on 20 August, which sought offers to supply the agency with up to $500mn of cobalt cut cathode or rounds for rotating aerospace applications under a firm-fixed-price IDIQ contract. The DLA cancelled the initial tender on 15 October after eight extensions of the offer period and ten amendments to address questions from potential offerors, citing the need to resolve "outstanding issues" with its statement of work. While the initial tender was active, the DLA said it "became unclear" to the agency if there was another source that could fulfill the tender requirements aside from the additional three it initially identified. The agency also said that it needed to "verify qualified sources" and "develop a justification and approval for sourcing limitations" prior to reissuing the new tender. By Reagan Patrowicz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Climate Club eyes green steel, cement targets


18/11/25
18/11/25

Cop: Climate Club eyes green steel, cement targets

Berlin, 18 November (Argus) — Members of the Germany-initiated Climate Club plan to set production targets for green steel and cement by the next UN climate conference Cop 31, Germany's environment minister Carsten Schneider said at this year's Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil, today. Club members agreed in Belem on a global pledge to grow near-zero and low-emissions steel and cement markets, aiming to increase the global market share of green steel through national policies and international co-operation. This could "potentially" lead to setting a quantitative target for both green steel and cement by Cop 31, Schneider said at a Cop 30 side event in Belem. Schneider called this a "good example of how the Climate Club advances lead markets and strengthens the business case for climate friendly production". Cop 31 is scheduled to take place in late 2026, though a location has not yet been decided. The club today also presented a joint statement and roadmap on international assistance and partnerships for green industry transition. Work under the roadmap will focus on areas such as mobilising investments, driving demand for green products, enhancing transparency through carbon accounting, and developing and scaling aligned or harmonised green standards and definitions. The joint statement has so far been endorsed by Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Sweden and the UK, as well as by organisations including the African Development Bank, international non-profit programme the Industrial Transition Accelerator, the World Bank-backed Climate Investment Funds (CIF), the Green Climate Fund, and the International Renewable Energy Agency. Germany, the UK and the CIF jointly pledged $1.3bn at Cop 29 last year in climate finance for developing low-carbon production processes and green lead markets in developing and emerging countries. CIF chief executive Tariye Gbadegesin said at the side event today that the first seven partner countries, which include Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, may receive up to $250mn of concessional capital, to "unlock additional funding" which could be ten times higher. Green industrial products could be worth over $1 trillion by 2030, Gbadegesin said. Schneider also announced today that Germany, the UK and platform the Global Industry Hub will inject €30mn into a new "industry decarbonisation hubs accelerator", which will be facilitated by the UN's Industrial Development Organisation (Unido) to advance industrial decarbonisation projects in emerging economies. This will allow targeted funding and make decarbonisation projects "bankable", Schneider said. Schneider pointed out the "unique" nature of the Climate Club, in which developed and developing countries collaborate on finding solutions. Most industrial investments will in future be made in the so-called global south, Schneider said, and the Climate Club over the past year was able to support nine countries through its global matchmaking platform, which is run by Unido. The Climate Club now has 47 member states, with Mexico joining today. Schneider welcomed the addition of another "important country", which he said will "strengthen our joint efforts to achieve green industrialisation". The Climate Club in September launched "voluntary principles" for its member countries to address carbon leakage, the phenomenon whereby emissions sources are relocated rather than cut, stressing the need for greater transparency on emissions reporting, and for accepting that countries will pursue different climate policies. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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