Falling temperatures and lower prices are pushing up heating oil demand across Germany.
Sales averaged just under 15,800 m³/d in the shortened first week of October, up from about 13,600 m³/d the week before, according to data reported to Argus. The increase followed a drop in average temperatures to below 10°C, from over 15°C in September.
The significant rise in demand appears to be driven mainly by colder weather, but may also reflect a shift in consumer behaviour. Traders say many households are no longer buying in bulk when prices dip, as they did in the past. Instead, they are placing smaller, more frequent orders — often triggered by falling temperatures — either because of tighter budgets or because they have switched to smaller, double-walled tanks during heating system upgrades. This shift may be amplifying the weather's impact on short-term demand.
Lower prices may have also contributed to the uptick in demand. Customers stocking up for winter took advantage of a price dip on 30 September and 1 October, which followed a decline in Ice gasoil futures.
Germany remains well-supplied, supported by high refinery utilisation. A few units at the 187,000 b/d Godorf refinery were shut for maintenance from early October, while a hydrocracker failure at the 103,000 b/d Lingen refinery in the week ending 28 September continues to limit diesel output.
The 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery is still facing supply pressure on heating oil, and to a lesser extent diesel. Both products are trading at a significant discount to neighbouring regions and the national average.
Heating oil is comparatively scarce at the 207,000 b/d Bayernoil refinery in the south, where the price premium to surrounding areas continues to rise.
Importers are currently limiting Rhine barge deliveries mostly to contractual volumes because of sufficient domestic supply. But this could change later in October, as shipowners and importers see signs of improving import conditions. The recent hydrocracker failure at Lingen and planned maintenance at Godorf are expected to tighten supply in western Germany.
Combined with maintenance in Amsterdam and Antwerp, this could lead to tighter availability at storage depots along the Rhine and Main rivers. Importers are hoping for regional price increases to improve import margins.
