Manganese ore prices in India have steadily increased over August-October because of ore supply disruptions, while manganese alloy prices fell over the same period on weak demand.
Indian state-owned mining company Manganese Ore India (Moil) raised its ore prices for October by 6.4pc from September for October shipments, marking the third consecutive month that the company lifted its prices.
Supply of imported ore, which Indian alloy producers rely heavily on, has been tight for the past few months. This was due to labour strikes in major manganese ore producer South Africa and a suspension of operations at Australian producer South32's Gemco after a landfall in March 2024. Gemco resumed exports in May-June and full operations in September, but it is not clear when the company's exports can return to pre-suspension levels.
Meanwhile, higher silico-manganese prices in China, as well as a more bullish outlook in the global steel market, further supported seaborne ore prices.
Heavy rains during India's monsoon season, which runs over June-September, disrupted domestic supply of manganese ore. The weather slowed down mining operations and the transportation of volumes to processing plants. This limited ore supplies further, likely contributing to the persistent rise in manganese ore prices.
Alloy
Prices for manganese alloy have fallen over the same period, as weak demand from Indian steel mills as well as from overseas producers hit the alloy market.
Indian 60pc silico-manganese prices fell from 73,000–74,000 rupees/t ($822-833/t) ex-works on 10 July to Rs69,500–70,500/t on 1 October, Argus data show. Export prices also declined from $860–880/t fob east coast to $800–820/t over the same period. Prices for 70pc ferro-manganese fell from Rs71,000–72,000/t to Rs69,500–70,500/t.
Cautious steel producers made fewer inquiries and reduced their intake of manganese alloy because of low steel prices and uncertainty. Alloy producers were unable to pass the higher cost of manganese ore onto buyers and steel mills were unwilling to accept price hikes for alloy because of weak steel demand, forcing producers to reduce their prices to secure deals.
Meanwhile, countries, such as the UAE, Japan and Italy, also had weak demand for India's manganese alloy, likely because of slowing steel production in Europe and southeast Asia.
Export challenges
Prices of the alloy could fall even further as Indian exporters struggle to find buyers.
India exports around 30,000-40,000 t/month of manganese alloy to Europe. But if these volumes are not shipped, the supply could flood the domestic market and push alloy prices down even further. This uncertainty has worsened conditions for producers already dealing with low prices and high costs.
This comes as overseas buyers resist higher prices despite rising input costs, causing minor declines in India's export rates. European buyers had already started stockpiling in anticipation of the EU's safeguard measures on ferro-alloy imports. But the EU's decision on these measures was extended until 18 November, leading to oversupply and leaving Indian exporters searching for buyers. Many Indian smelters have cut production by 40-50pc to manage losses.
Premium alloy grades have also recorded price corrections, showing that the issue is not limited to lower-quality material.
Inventories are building up, and buyers are purchasing only what they need, avoiding long-term contracts. Larger steel mills are also holding back from aggressive buying, which has hurt market sentiment.
