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Latest Market News

Baker Hughes see tariff hit at lower end of range

  • Spanish Market: Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 13/10/25

Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes said the impact from tariffs on this year's results will be at the lower end of the $100mn-$200mn range it estimated in April.

"It is an incremental pressure point, but it's something that we have to manage through," chief executive officer Lorenzo Simonelli told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London today.

With around 70pc of the world's oil and natural gas production coming from mature assets, Simonelli also noted there are technologies in place today that can reduce costs in the drilling process.

"We need more exploration, but before we go out and do the greenfield exploration, there's a lot that we can do from a mature asset solution perspective," he said.

Baker Hughes is scheduled to report third quarter results on 23 October.

By Stephen Cunningham

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16/03/26

Back of crude price curve grinds higher as war persists

Back of crude price curve grinds higher as war persists

Calgary, 16 March (Argus) — The de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz has choked oil supply and sent near-term WTI prices higher, but more recent gains in the long end of the price curve suggest a growing expectation the US-Iran war could drag on longer. April Nymex WTI settled at $98.71/bl on 13 March, a whopping $31.69/bl gain since 27 February—the day before the US and Israel began exchanging fire with Iran. About three-quarters of this increase were realized in the first week of the war, with the remaining $7.81/bl coming in the second week. To try to calm markets, US president Donald Trump and his administration last week signaled a potential end to Middle East supply disruptions, claiming the war is "very complete, pretty much". But with the war entering its third week, and Trump calling on allies for military help, contracts on the long-dated part of the price curve have recently garnered more support relative to when the fighting broke out. For WTI contracts from August to December, inclusive, gains in the second week of the war outpaced the first week. October Nymex WTI, for example, settled at $80.08/bl on 13 March, up by $8.67/bl from a week earlier. This is above the $6.79/bl gain in the week ended 6 March. "As the war drags on and as the market's expectation of duration continues to extend, it stands to reason that the back end of the Brent/WTI curves continue to grind higher," TD Cowen's managing director of institutional equity research, Menno Hulshof, told Argus on Monday. About 25pc of globally traded crude volumes and 20pc of LNG supply is unable to leave the Mideast Gulf, with Iran targeting vessels in the strait of Hormuz. Also at play down the price curve is the market perception of what geopolitical risk premium is acceptable if the situation deescalates or the war ends entirely, said Hulshof. Trump has promised insurance guarantees as well as naval escorts to get traffic moving again after some providers hiked premiums or cancel war-risk coverage across the Middle East, but those reassurances have so far been unconvincing. "Most would say that [the risk premium] now needs to be higher on a sustained basis," said Hulshof. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU leaders to mull gas price cap this week

16/03/26
16/03/26

EU leaders to mull gas price cap this week

Brussels, 16 March (Argus) — The European Commission will assess the effect of "subsidising or capping" the gas-fired generation price and redistributing infra-marginal revenues on national level "on a case-by-case basis", if member states use such instruments, commission president Ursula von der Leyen said. These emergency measures limiting the effects of gas prices on electricity should avoid internal market "distortions", preserve long-term clean energy investment signals and preclude "excessive additional" demand for gas, von der Leyen said in a letter to EU leaders ahead of a European Council meeting in Brussels on 19-20 March. The commission is looking at "targeted" short-term measures rather than "structural" changes, energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen said. The EU has a "very clear" interest in keeping the electricity market design as it is. "We need the market to function and we need to make sure that we have security of supply, which is what the marginal pricing system secures us," Jorgensen added. Other measures proposed by von der Leyen include better use of power purchase agreements and contracts for difference. For carbon markets, von der Leyen submit a proposal to increase the "firepower" of the market stability reserve (MSR) to decrease the price of EU emissions trading system (ETS) allowances. And von der Leyen said there were discrepancies between taxes and levies imposed on energy sources. "In many cases, electricity is taxed much more heavily — up to fifteen times — than gas," von der Leyen said. Emergency measures could be approved by a qualified majority of EU states under an emergency procedure. But Germany has already rejected any intervention by the commission on the bloc's electricity market and merit-order system. Speaking at a meeting of energy ministers on Monday, German energy minister Katherina Reiche said the bloc's current energy market model, with a merit-order system and marginal pricing, is the "most efficient" for determining electricity prices cost-effectively, while keeping markets liquid. "The interventions that are being proposed would ultimately lead to higher prices. At this moment, that would send exactly the wrong signal," Reiche said, adding that renewing imports of Russian natural gas is not an option. Reiche is open to see how additional government revenues via energy taxes can be distributed more fairly. Swedish energy minister Ebba Busch sees no "magic wand" for current energy prices. Measures to fill storage ahead of the coming winter should be implemented in a way that does not penalise countries like Sweden that have done their "homework" by moving away from natural gas and other fossil fuels, Busch said. Introducing price caps or phasing out the ETS is a "difficult proposal" because high carbon prices benefit many state budgets, Polish energy secretary Wojciech Wrochna said. "We cannot cut the revenues from one day to another," he said, calling for a "targeted, urgent, country-specific" solution. Gas is not the problem, "it's the ETS cost", Wrochna added. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

16/03/26
16/03/26

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

London, 16 March (Argus) — European ethanol prices have risen by more than 10pc since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, with a number of indirect effects pushing values to the highest in four months. Last week, prices for 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol rose to €754/m³, up by €72/m³ from 27 February, the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, and the highest since 11 November. While the conflict has not directly affected ethanol supply, there has been consequential volatility and disruption through higher freight rates, limited arbitrage opportunities and increased production costs. The war looks likely to tighten supply in what was, already, a structurally short European ethanol market. Arbitrage economics for suppliers in North and South America to export to Europe have closed because of higher specialised freight rates and domestic prices. The EU is heavily reliant on ethanol flows from the Americas, with the bloc's largest suppliers of undenatured ethanol in the fourth quarter 2025 being Peru with 43,101t, Brazil with 26,747t, Canada with 21,819t, and the US with 18,822t. The Americas represented 71pc, or 133,275t, of all EU imports that quarter. Specialised freight has become more expensive since the war began beginning and it could be difficult to book vessels. The war has almost entirely halted ships from passing through the strait of Hormuz, which has mostly stopped shipments of diesel from the Mideast Gulf to Europe and prompted European buyers to turn to the US Gulf Coast for cargoes. Revenues from these have been high enough to keep most IMO2/3 'swing tonnage' tankers away from ethanol, biofuels, and petrochemicals cargoes, supporting specialised tanker rates. Tanker availability in the Americas was already very tight, and strong revenues in the regional products freight market and high numbers of Contracts of Affreightment have left even fewer available specialised tankers for biofuels. Charterers have faced high competition in the spot market which has sent specialised tanker rates surging. The higher price of bunker fuel has also pushed up shipowners' costs to move cargoes and further supported freight rates. Ethanol prices in the US and Brazil have also risen, which has disincentivised exports. US ethanol prices rose between 4-13 March in line with gains in oil products and agricultural futures. In-tank transfers at Kinder-Morgan's Argo terminal and for Chicago Rule 11 railcars rallied by more than 6pc, to €436.77/m³ (189.2¢/USG) and €427.19/m³ (185¢/USG) respectively, per Argus assessments. Barge values at New York Harbor rose by 5.5pc to €449.13/m³ (194.50¢/USG). Brazilian ethanol prices were already supported pre-war by reduced domestic supply, a result of the major producing centre-south region being in the December-March sugarcane off season, coinciding with historically low stocks. Brazil's domestic demand for ethanol could grow if state-controlled Petrobras adjusts domestic fuel prices higher then consumers will look to fill up their flex-fuel vehicles with more ethanol. Argus ' price for hydrous ethanol traded on an ex-mill basis in the state of Sao Paulo reached 3,805 reals/m³ (€632.80/m³or 280.1¢/USG) on 23 January, the highest since 24 January 2022. The price has since reversed some of the gains but it is still trading at levels last seen four years ago. EU ethanol production margins fell at the start of the conflict. Between 2-4 March, margins for corn fell by €94.49/m³ to €187.22/m³ and for wheat they fell by €95.49/m³ to €181.20/m³, according to Argus calculations that exclude variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants. In 2025, the average production margin was €197.58/m³ for corn and €198.50/m³ for wheat. Market participants attributed the lower margins to higher prices for natural gas used in the production process. With the war closing off some global LNG supply, the natural gas has gone from 20pc of production costs to 30pc, according to Argus calculations. Prices for grains have also risen, with the EU's corn production down in recent seasons, and imports have become more expensive because of higher shipping costs. By Toby Shay, Leonard Fisher-Matthews, Maria Lígia Barros, Thompson Corpus, Aleksandra Godlewska and Anna Harouni Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iraq eyes idled pipe, trucks for crude exports: Update

16/03/26
16/03/26

Iraq eyes idled pipe, trucks for crude exports: Update

Adds plan to truck crude to Syria and Jordan in paragraphs 5 and 12 Dubai, 16 March (Argus) — Iraq is seeking alternative export routes for its crude to the north, to ports in Turkey, Jordan and Syria, the country's oil minister has said. With its 3.4mn b/d of southern Basrah exports shut in by the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, and with the country relying heavily on oil revenues to fund government spending, Baghdad is aware that a prolonged shutdown of exports could place severe strain on state finances and economic and political stability. Baghdad has cut crude production to 1.5mn-1.6mn b/d to prioritise domestic refining and electricity generation, Abdulghani said. Argus estimates production at around 1.2mn b/d. Iraq was expected to produce 4.273mn b/d under its Opec+ quota in March, meaning it has shut in around 3mn b/d. One export option is to begin pumping crude from northern Kirkuk fields to Turkey's Ceyhan port through a long-closed pipeline that will allow it to do so independently of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani said today. Other options are to truck crude to Syria's Banias port and Aqaba in Jordan, he said. The pipeline to Ceyhan, which has been closed by damage since 2014, could initially carry 200,000-250,000 b/d, Abdulghani said. He said final inspections on the rehabilitated pipeline segment are expected to be completed within about a week. The attempt to restart northern exports comes as a dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) intensifies over the use of the pipeline that crosses the Kurdistan region to Turkey. The pipeline, also to Ceyhan, is currently shut , and has been only intermittently operating, at far below its 900,000 b/d capacity, since the war began. Iraq's oil ministry said on 15 March it had repeatedly asked Erbil to allow the resumption of exports from federal fields at up to 300,000 b/d. The KRG has also previously exported around 200,000 b/d. The ministry said the KRG refused to restart exports and attached conditions unrelated to the oil flows. The KRG's ministry of natural resources (MNR) rejected this, saying Baghdad was attempting to shift blame. The MNR said production in Kurdistan had already been halted following repeated missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure carried out by militia groups. The KRG also accused Baghdad of imposing what it described as a "suffocating economic blockade" on the region through restrictions on dollar access and trade flows. KRG leader Masoud Barzani called on both governments to meet and resolve their differences, warning Iraq faces multiple crises as the regional war continues. "Opportunists seeking to deepen divisions must be stopped," Barzani said on 16 March. Earlier proposals from Erbil suggested a broader political settlement linking customs systems, dollar access for local traders and the resumption of oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline. Iraq has also issued several tenders for the supply of crude from Syria's Banias and Jordan's Aqaba ports, Abdulghani said. The tender awards are expected within the next two days and the crude will be moved to the two ports by truck. Some market sources said the supplies could head to Mediterranean refiners, given the ports' proximity, but doubted they will be able to offset the region's looming shortfall of Iraqi crude through the strait of Hormuz. By Bachar Halabi and Ellanee Kruck Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada pledges 24mn bl to IEA oil stabilization

16/03/26
16/03/26

Canada pledges 24mn bl to IEA oil stabilization

Calgary, 16 March (Argus) — Canada's oil industry will increase production by 23.6mn bl in the coming months for its contribution to the massive price stabilization effort by the IEA, according to the federal government. The coordinated effort by members of the Paris-based IEA would make about 412mn bl of additional crude and refined products available to the market after the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz cut off Mideast Gulf exports. The IEA's 11 March decision to tap into stockpiles was made unanimously by its 32 member states, including Canada. But with no strategic petroleum reserves, Canada's offering will come in the form of production increases, mostly from Alberta's oil sands, and will be coordinated with the federal and provincial governments, Natural Resources Canada said. The 23.6mn bl will start to reach the market in April with the entire volume taking three-to-six months, the federal agency told Argus . That translates into a range of about 128,000-260,000 b/d. Canada produces about 5.3mn b/d with nearly 4mn b/d of that coming from Alberta's oil sands. The US will contribute about 172mn bls from its strategic petroleum reserves for the IEA effort. IEA secretary general Fatih Birol said Monday the agency's members still have more than 1.4bn bl of inventory, meaning "we can do more later if needed." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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