The world is moving in the right direction, but is "stalling on progress" to reach the Paris agreement's goal to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the State of Climate Action 2025 report found today.
The "pace and scale of progress are alarmingly inadequate", the report found. Of the 45 indicators that it tracked, the majority, at 29, were moving in the right direction, but at a pace "well off track". These include the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation, the pace of green hydrogen production and the emissions intensity of several agricultural processes.
Six indicators were moving at a faster pace in the right direction, but were still "off track", the report found. These include the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in vehicle sales, and the rate of global private climate finance. The remainder of categories were either moving in the wrong direction — including public finance directed towards fossil fuels — or there was insufficient data to track them. None of the indicators tracked were moving at sufficient pace, the report found.
The Paris agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. Signatories to the agreement recognised in 2023 as part of the global stocktake (GST) "the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C". The GST, an exercise to assess progress under the Paris agreement, should inform new NDCs — the climate plans out to 2035 that countries are due to submit by the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, in November.
Countries have submitted 62 new NDCs, as of October, representing 31pc of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the report noted. "If fully implemented", these plans can cut GHG emissions in 2035 "by an additional" 1.4bn-1.6bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e), compared to the levels implied by previous NDCs, the report found. But that amount falls "far short" of reductions needed to close the 26.5bn-29.8bn t/CO2e "gap" in that timeframe to achieve the 1.5°C goal, it added.
Climate finance is also "crucial" to achieving emissions reduction targets. Keeping to the 1.5°C limit "will require annual investment in mitigation and adaptation activities to reach an estimated $6.9 trillion to $11 trillion per year by 2030", the report found. Climate finance flows more than doubled over 2019-23 — from $900mn to $1.9 trillion — but need to accelerate "roughly four times faster than current growth" to reach that 2030 figure, it added.
The report was produced by non-profits World Resources Institute, Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute and ClimateWorks Foundation, foundation Bezos Earth Fund, and climate change champions from the UN Cop 27 and Cop 28 summits Mahmoud Mohieldin and Razan Al Mubarak.
