Danish climate and energy minister Lars Aargaard is still eyeing agreement on the EU's 2035 and 2040 climate targets at a ministerial meeting on 4 November.
Denmark holds the six-month rotating chair of environment ministers' meetings.
The meeting of EU leaders on 23-24 October gave no clear conclusions to climate and environment ministers on the details of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions required for 2040, but will try to reach a compromise on the 2040 target level reflecting EU leaders' guidance.
Diplomats leading the discussions see increased agreement but admit gaps that need to be bridged. Points discussed today include how a revision clause brought up during the leaders' meeting — a caveat taking account of scientific evidence, technological advances and evolving challenges for the bloc's global competitiveness — would work. Talks also touched on the volume and start of international credits, the role of carbon sinks and safeguarding competitiveness.
France is a clear winner in discussions, one diplomat noted, as the country got its wish lists in early. Alongside other factors, the revision of the 2040 target should take into account "technology neutrality", a non-conflictual buzz word for nuclear power. France has long been a leading advocate for nuclear energy.
Texts prepared for the climate ministers meeting on 4 November leave unchanged headline language that the 2040 climate target shall be a reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of 90pc, compared to 1990 levels, so as to reach the 2050 climate-neutrality objective. The target would also be subject to the European Commission assessing and reporting on implementation once every two years. That biennial assessment may be accompanied, where appropriate, by legislative proposals.
The texts also clarify that the current EU ETS trajectory should be revised in the upcoming review of the ETS directive to take into account the agreed 2040 target "in a manner that would allow for a limited amount of emissions after 2039". And international credits should not play a role for compliance in the EU's emissions trading system (ETS).
On international credits going towards the 2040 target, diplomats deleted the words "potential" and "limited" contribution. EU states now favor a "possible" and "adequate" contribution of high-quality credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. But the volume and starting date of such credits remains to be confirmed with a proposition for a 2036 starting date and volume at 3pc of 1990 EU net emissions, and others floating 5pc and 2031.
Ministers will also seek to approve the EU's post-2030 NDC for upcoming UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil on 10–21 November. On the NDC there is now less tension even if it remains uncertain whether or not agreement will be reached by all 27 EU states on the bloc's official NDC to replace the current statement of intent.
Unlike the NDC, the bloc's 2040 GHG reduction target is a revision to the bloc's 2021 climate law. As such EU states will vote their position by qualified majority and then agree the final legal text with the European Parliament.
