Mexico factory contraction eases in October

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Chemicals, Metals, Oil products
04/11/25

Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted in October for a 19th consecutive month, but at a slower pace, according to the Mexican finance executives' association IMEF purchasing managers' survey.

The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 47.2 from 46.0 in September, its third consecutive monthly increase and closer to the 50-point threshold that would mark the beginning of expansion.

The uptick suggests the deceleration seen over the last 19 months has become "less pronounced, although without clear signs of expansion," said IMEF. Any "recovery in the manufacturing sector is still partial," it added.

IMEF added prospects for recovery are deeply uncertain with discussions just beginning in the process to review and likely re-negotiate the USMCA free trade agreement with the US and Canada by July 2026.

While the process could bring clarity to US tariffs enacted this year and ongoing treaty disputes, the "process is taking place within a challenging international context, given [US President Donald] Trump's tariff strategy and the volatility of his trade decisions."

Key sub-indexes also rose in October, with new orders jumping 4.5 points to 47.2 and production moving 2.3 points higher to 46.7, both in their 19th month of contraction.

But employment slipped to its lowest level since June 2022, dropping 0.9 points in October to 42.6, holding in contraction for a 21st month, and "underscoring the weakness in the industrial labor market."

Inventories fell back into contraction in October, dropping 5.9 points to 46.3 after briefly climbing above 50 in September.

IMEF's non-manufacturing PMI entered expansion territory for the first time in 10 months, rising 1.3 points to 50.4 in October, "suggesting a possible turning point in the performance of the services and trade sectors," IMEF said.

New orders rose by 2 points to 50.8 in October after a 0.9-point dip in September. The production sub-index increased by 3.3 points to 50.5, while employment fell 0.5 points to 48.5.

Despite improvements, IMEF stressed the long-term PMI trendlines for both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing index remain below 50 points, suggesting the recent increases "have yet to consolidate into a substantive change in economic dynamics."

By James Young

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04/12/25

Brazil increases 2025 coffee crop outlook

Sao Paulo, 4 December (Argus) — Brazil is set to produce its third-largest coffee crop ever this year, despite it being a low productivity year in the crop cycle, according to national supply company Conab's last crop estimate for this cycle. Brazil will produce almost 56.5mn 60kg bags of coffee this year, up from the previous forecast released in September of 55.2mn bags. The upward revision was driven by higher average national productivity, reflecting a better performance of Conilon coffee crops, one of the two major types of coffee grown in Brazil. This is above the 51.8mn bags first projected for the season and surpasses the 2024 crop, which produced 54.2mn bags. Droughts, irregularly distributed rainfall and high temperatures severely hampered yields in the prior cycle, despite initial expectations for a high-producing one. Coffee cycles occur biennially in Brazil, with larger volumes produced in alternating years. During the lower producing years — known as negative years — plants replenish their nutritional reserves, leading to reduced output. The 2025 cycle is considered a negative year, with the current estimate representing an all-time high for a negative year, topping the record registered in the 2023 crop, when Brazil produced nearly 55.1mn bags. It is expected to rank as the third-largest in the nation's history, only behind the positive cycles of 2020 and 2018, which produced 63.1mn bags and 61.7mn bags, respectively. Conab revised the outlook for the current cycle based on an increase in expected yields to 30.4 bags/hectare (ha) from 29.7 bags/ha in the prior forecast. That is up by 5.5pc from 28.8 bags/ha in the positive 2024 year and compares with 29.4 bags/ha in the negative 2023 cycle. Brazil grows two types of coffee: the higher-grade Arabica coffee and the Conilon grade coffee, also referred to as Robusta. These varieties have different taste, caffeine content and productivity levels, as well as distinct producing regions and harvesting calendars. Arabica coffee production is forecast at around 35.8mn bags, ahead of the nearly 35.2mn bags projected in September, but down from 39.6mn bags in 2024. There has been significant vegetative recovery in crops, mainly in southeastern Minas Gerais state, Brazil's largest producer, which contributed to an increase compared to the previous estimate, according to Conab. Yields rose to 24.1 bags/ha from 23.7 bags/ha in September. That is behind the 26.2 bags/ha in 2024. Conilon coffee output should reach an overall record of 20.8mn bags, up from 20.1mn bags in the previous outlook following the consistent weather conditions in major producing states Espirito Santo and Bahia that promoted good conditions for areas and resulted in high yields. That compares with 14.6mn bags in the prior cycle. Yields are up to 55.9 bags/ha, from 53.8 bags/ha estimated in September and 39.2 bags/ha yielded in 2024. Conab continues to expect the total area allocated to both coffee grades to reach approximately 2.25mn ha this cycle, 0.9pc above on the year. The area set aside for coffee is split between space for production and new crops. Areas allocated to crops in production fell by 1.2pc on the year to nearly 1.86mn ha. New areas account for around 396,428ha, up by 12pc, as is usual for negative years. Coffee exports fall on year Brazil exported 34.2mn bags of coffee in January-October, around 17.8pc below the total shipped in the same period a year before, according to trade ministry Mdic data. This reduction in volume exported in the first ten months of 2025 is mainly because of limited domestic stocks at the beginning of the year, following a record shipment of 50.5mn bags in 2024. Tariffs imposed by the US from April onwards, a major buyer of Brazilian coffee, also contributed to the reduction in exports. Brazil exported coffee to 150 countries in the first ten months of 2025. The US and Germany accounted for the largest share of shipments, with 14.1pc and 14pc, respectively. Italy received 8.1pc of exports, Belgium and Japan 6.3pc each. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high

04/12/25

Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high

London, 4 December (Argus) — Sharp swings in European diesel prices in November were driven in part by entities with no physical exposure, as money managers briefly held their largest long positions in Ice gasoil futures in nearly four years. Funds have looked to gasoil futures because of increasing volatility in the contract when compared with Ice Brent crude futures, according to a senior participant in oil paper markets. The daily change in the value of front-month Ice gasoil has averaged 1.66pc so far this year, compared with 1.32pc for front-month Ice Brent. Money managers — hedge funds and pensions funds, along with other entities managing on behalf of clients — have increased their long positions in Ice gasoil futures as the year has progressed. This reached a 45-month high of 153,689 lots in the week to 18 November, according to Ice's Commitment of Traders report. Ice gasoil futures hit $777.50/t on 18 November, the third-highest of the year. Money managers trimmed 10pc of that position the following week, to 137,971 as of 25 November. Ice futures fell below $700/t on that date, pressured by reported progress on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. This led market participants to consider what peace would mean for diesel markets: a slow down in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and, in the longer term, a possible European return to importing Russian diesel. Funds' long position is still almost double the 74,015 held at the start of 2025, and the average 75,398 held in 2024. Long and the short of it Before peace talks started to progress, money managers' net long positions were the highest in more than three-and-a-half years. An analyst said funds have probably taken an overall position of being long diesel cracks — taking long positions in gasoil futures and short ones in Brent. Permanent cuts to refining capacity in Europe, as well as extensive temporary outages this year, have contributed to a disconnect between gasoil and Brent price movements. As gasoil prices rise, refiners can hit capacity limits, which has capped their crude buying and kept Brent steadier. Managed money held the biggest short position in Brent since at least 2015 on 21 October at 190,639 lots. This has fallen since, but did rebound to 163,975 on 25 November, the eighth shortest since 2015. Funds' involvement in futures has further increased volatility, as they tend to buy and sell futures more quickly than entities with physical exposure. That volatility increases potential losses as well as potential gains. Some funds may have made very large losses this year because of unexpected swings, the paper market participant said. European diesel often prices on a exchange-of-futures-for-physical (EFP) basis, using Ice gasoil futures, meaning the futures price can be an influence on the physical price. European physical diesel cargoes priced at a $45.64/bl premium against North Sea Dated on 19 November, the highest in nearly three years. The following week, when money managers were cutting their long positions, the physical diesel premium fell to $27.15/bl. Ice gasoil futures is a physically-delivered contract, so any price dislocation is generally soon closed as traders look to work an arbitrage between the futures and physical. By Josh Michalowski and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

04/12/25

Qatar presents 2040 climate target to UN

Edinburgh, 4 December (Argus) — Qatar has pledged to reduce its emissions by 42mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) by 2040 from a 2019 baseline, with the oil and gas sector "at the forefront of national mitigation efforts". Qatar does not provide its total greenhouse emissions for 2019, but said its climate plan encompasses CO2, methane and nitrous oxide gases. It covers the energy sector — oil and gas, power and water — construction and industry, transport, waste and agriculture, forestry and other land use. Parties to the Paris Agreement were required to submit climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), for 2035 to the UN climate body UNFCCC this year. Qatar had previously targeted emission reductions of 25pc, or 37mn CO2e, by 2030, compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. BAU scenarios typically assume emissions based on current policies, leaving room for potential increases. The country's emission cuts in its oil and gas sector will rely on "deploying cleaner fossil fuel technologies, developing engineered sinks to store emissions, diversifying the energy mix, and driving operational excellence across existing facilities and infrastructure", according to its climate plan. Qatar is the world's largest LNG producer, with a production capacity of 77mn t/yr, according to QatarEnergy, and its economy is heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. The country's climate plan highlights the country's vulnerability to response measures to mitigate climate change, resulting from its economy's reliance on hydrocarbons. "Qatar is actively working to reduce the socio-economic effects of global climate action," the plan said, adding that it seeks to balance climate goals with national sustainable development. "Despite many efforts and considering its role as a leading producer and exporter of natural gas, Qatar remains significantly vulnerable to climate response measures," it said. Qatar is part of the Arab Group, a negotiating group in UNFCCC climate talks, which is seeking to focus on cutting emissions from fossil fuels, rather than hydrocarbon production and consumption, through increased adoption of carbon capture technologies. The country said it plays "a pivotal role" in supporting other countries' targets by "reliably supplying them with a cleaner alternative to coal and oil and providing a critical backup for intermittent renewables". Qatar's climate plan sees the secure and affordable supply of lower-carbon energy as well as the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the management of emissions of energy production as the focus to pursue sustainable development and climate action. The country considers itself to be among the leaders in CCS with its Ras Laffan project, and aims to capture 11mn t/yr of CO2 by 2035. Engineering firm Samsung C&T was recently awarded a contract to build a 4.1mn t/yr CO2 facility to process and store emissions from Qatar's LNG liquefaction plants. Qatar, in its climate plan, highlighted the country's water supply vulnerability to temperature increases and heat. The power and water sector accounts for a large share of the country's emissions. Water scarcity is also responsible for increasing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Bahrain through desalination, although its energy sector remains the main source of emissions, according to the country's new climate plan. The country is heavily reliant on fossil fuels for its energy and revenues, while "limited land availability and competing land-use demands constrain large-scale deployment" for the development of solar energy. Rising demand over the peak summer months this year meant that Bahrain had to import LNG for the first time since commissioning its 800mn ft³/d onshore LNG receiving and regasification terminal in 2020. But it is looking at renewables options and is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a link to a large-scale solar facility. Bahrain said that response measures to climate change "may lead to economic losses that, in turn, hinder Bahrain's ability to pursue effective climate action and achieve broader sustainable development objectives." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Glencore to raise global copper production by 2035

04/12/25

Glencore to raise global copper production by 2035

Sydney, 4 December (Argus) — Global metals producer Glencore expects to increase its copper output to 1.6mn t by 2035, on the back of mine expansions, but faces short-term copper challenges. It plans to produce 1.1mn t of copper in 2029, up from 850,000-875,000t in 2025, Glencore told investors in a capital markets day presentation on 3 December. It will then further increase production to around 1.6mn t by 2035, the company added. Glencore's copper growth will come largely from the planned mine developments and restart projects (see table) over the next few years, including the 2028 reopening of its Alumbrera mine in Argentina. Development work at the company's Collahuasi mine — a joint venture with UK-South African producer Anglo American and Mitsui-owned producer Japan Collahuasi — in Chile will also support its growth plan. The project will increase Glencore's long-term output but has dampened its short-term production outlook. The company cut its 2026 copper production guidance to 810,000–870,000t on 3 December, from 930,000t in February, because of mine plan changes at the site. Total production at Collahuasi fell by 31pc on the year in July-September, from 431,200t to 297,000t, because of lower ore grades, data from Chilean copper commission Chochilco show. The mine will operate at a reduced rate in 2026 because of development work, Anglo American told investors on 29 October. Glencore also cut the upper bound of its 2025 copper production guidance from 890,000t to 875,000t in late October because of operational and ore grade issues. It expects to produce at the lower end of its 850,000–875,000t range over the year. The company mined 583,500t of copper in January-September, down by 17pc on the year. By Avinash Govind Glencore Copper Projects Project Location Date Production (Average LOM, '000t) Alumbrera Restart Argentina 1H 2028 75 Collahuasi - LG stockpile leeching Chile 2028 22 Antapaccay - Coroccohuayco Peru 2H 2029 148 MUMI - Sulphides Democratic Republic of Congo 2031 97 Agua Rica Argentina 2H 2031 156 NewRange - stage 1 USA 2031 18 Collahuasi - New concentrator Chile 2H 2033 142 El Pachon Argentina 2034 338 NewRange - stage 2 USA 2037 55 Antapaccay district Peru 2037 201 *LOM: Life of mine Source: Glencore Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Bessent shifts China soy purchase deadline

03/12/25

Bessent shifts China soy purchase deadline

Houston, 3 December (Argus) — China is on pace to purchase 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of February, according to US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, falling short of the previously stated deadline of the end of 2025. At an event Wednesday, Bessent claimed China's soybean purchasing was on pace to reach its target "by the end of this season, so I think that'll be February 28". Bessent added that China is in a "perfect cadence" to reach the 12mn t purchasing milestone. Bessent's comments, though, are in direct contradiction with the 31 December deadline set by the the White House, which on 1 November said China would buy 12mn t of US soybeans by the end of 2025. Chinese purchases, which restarted at the end of October after a five-month pause, have been slow, with only 2.26mn t in confirmed sales to date, spawning fears that the country would fall short of the 12mn t figure this year. Small-volume soybean purchases made by China since 30 October will not be confirmed in the US Department of Agriculture's export sales reports until at least 8 December. No large-volume purchases have been reported since 28 November, despite some market participants expecting sales reports earlier this week. Bessent later added that China's "purchase by their central government is well into the correct cadence", seemingly confirming that state-owned firms are driving the purchases of US soybeans. Private processors have kept their sights set on Brazil's crop, according to market participants, which has been both cheaper than US product and faces a lower tariff rate. By Joseph Crosby Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico factory contraction eases in October

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