N Zealand's emissions unit prices fall after NDC delink

Spanish Market: Emissions
05/11/25

New Zealand emissions unit (NZU) spot prices fell sharply today following the government's announcement that it will decouple the Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) unit volumes and price control settings from the country's nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.

The decision, announced late on Tuesday, sparked a major sell-off on Wednesday morning, with spot prices reaching as low as NZ$41.50/t CO2 equivalent ($23.50/t CO2e) — down by almost 20pc from NZ$51.50-51.70/t CO2e a day earlier. Prices bounced back and ended the day at NZ$46.40/t CO2e, the lowest level since May 2024, with more than 600,000 units changing hands during the day.

Future price expectations also fell sharply, with the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) futures contracts settling between NZ$47.08/t CO2e for the May 2026 contract and NZ$54/t CO2e for May 2030, down from NZ$52.65-61/t CO2e the previous day (see table).

Many of the announced amendments will weaken and reduce the integrity of the Climate Change Response Act, advocacy group Lawyers for Climate Action NZ said.

Currently, the government must be satisfied that the limits and price control settings are "in accordance with" the country's emissions budget, 2050 target and NDC.

"The elephant in the room is that the government is projected to fall short of achieving our 2030 NDC by 84mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). For context, that is equivalent to roughly one entire year of New Zealand's emissions," the organisation said.

"In our view, delinking ETS settings from the NDC, and doing so under urgency, signals the absence of any credible plan for meeting that 84mn t gap," it pointed out.

Apart from removing the requirement for the NZ ETS settings to align with New Zealand's international legal obligations under the Paris Agreement, the government will narrow the role of the Climate Change Commission and remove opportunities for public consultation and input into key decisions, the group warned.

The move marks a "significant policy shift", which is negative for ETS pricing, commodities broker Marex managing director Nigel Brunel said today.

"For a market built on trust, credibility is currency, and today's move appears to have devalued it and anyone trading NZUs today will be recalibrating their long-term assumptions after this announcement," Brunel said.

By Juan Weik

ASX NZU futures contracts, 5 November 2025				NZ$/t CO2e
	Bid	Ask	Settlement	Previous day

May 2026	46.25	47.90	47.08	52.65
May 2027	47.20	49.20	48.20	54.50
May 2028	48.30	52.00	50.15	56.50
May 2029	50.00	54.00	52.00	58.65
May 2030	52.00	56.00	54.00	61.00
Source: ASX

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31/03/26

Fossil fuel producers part of Colombia phase out talks

Edinburgh, 31 March (Argus) — Fossil fuel producers Canada, the UK, Norway, Angola, Mexico, Brazil, Senegal and Australia are among 45 countries confirmed to take part in a global meeting in Colombia to progress discussions on the transition away from fossil fuels, according to Colombia's environment minister Irene Torres. "These countries are strategically important because they reflect the diversity of the fossil fuel supply chain, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global production and nearly one-third of global consumption," Torres said. The conference was announced during the UN climate Cop 30 conference in Belem last year and will be held in Santa Marta on 24-29 April. Torres said the countries taking part will launch a global coalition aimed at accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. Countries vulnerable to the climate crisis, such as island nations of Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Palau and the Marshall Islands, will be present. Countries reliant on fossil fuel imports, such as Germany, France, Italy, Vietnam, Cameroon and Cambodia will be present, as will the EU and the Cop 30 and 31 respective presidencies, Brazil and Turkey. The Cop 30 presidency is drafting a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, after calls to include it in the outcome of the Belem summit were rejected . The document should be ready in time for Cop 31 in Antalya, Turkey, although it is unclear what the next steps will be when is released. "Despite our differences, all participants agree on the need to prioritise science and to move forward, urgently and in a coordinated manner, toward phasing out the production and consumption of natural gas, coal, and oil," Torres said. The conference will serve as a forum to build consensus and demonstrate "the will to act on this transition", she said. The conference comes as energy security concerns are to fore again, because of oil and gas supply disruptions resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran. "The meeting aims to create favourable conditions for moving toward concrete agreements and strengthening co-operation among countries with different economic and energy situations," Torres said. She said the broad representation "underscores the diversity of perspectives". Among fossil fuel producers present, only the UK and Denmark have committed to end licensing, although the former will continue to allow tie-backs to existing fields and the latter is considering extending one or more licences until 2050 . Brazil, the largest oil producer in Latin America, is due to publish a fossil fuel phase-out plan imminently after missing a self-imposed February deadline . It has said developed countries should take the lead when it comes to "the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels". Mexico, the second-largest oil producer in Latin America, joined Colombia in signing a declaration pushing for a transition away from fossil fuels during Cop 30. Canada, the world's fourth largest oil producer, has focused efforts on the phase-out of fossil subsidies and reducing emissions in the sector but has no plans to phase out production of fossil fuels. Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has recently been pushing his country's large oil and gas resource base abroad , pledging more infrastructure is forthcoming. Norway has repeatedly said it is not planning to phase out oil and gas, but the Green party has pushed for a commission looking at the oil transition to be set up in December, as part of a deal to pass the country's budget. African producers such as Angola — the continent's second largest producer — are likely to continue focusing on the "just transition" aspect, including climate finance and technology transfer and reducing its dependency on oil revenues. Angola said it is planning to keep production steady until at least 2027, after years of battling declining output. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2

27/03/26

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update 2

Updates with details from final regulatory text New York, 27 March (Argus) — The US will require record-high biofuel use over the next two years, boosting soybean farmers and alternative diesel producers at the expense of oil refiners that warned of higher pump prices. Oil refiners will have to bring billions more gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel to market in 2026 and 2027, according to new blend requirements released by President Donald Trump's administration Friday. The mandates for biomass-based diesel this year alone are more than 60pc above targets in the category last year, the biggest annual step change in program history. The requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. They also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives like biofuels. Requiring "the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history" will create rural jobs and "massively increase our nation's energy supply", Trump said at a White House event. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas had already boosted the price of RINs — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. Friday's final rule includes a record-high mandate of 26.81bn RINs from total renewable fuel blending in 2026 and 27.02bn RINs in 2027, though fewer RINs per gallon next year for some fuels mean those future requirements are even more ambitious than they first appear. EPA sets total blend requirements and requires that a portion come from lower-carbon "advanced" biofuel types including biomass-based diesel. A gallon of corn ethanol generates one RIN, while more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel earn more. Other updates show the Trump administration siding clearly with farmers over refiners. Larger oil companies, for instance, will have to blend more biofuels to offset the demand hit from recently generous program exemptions for some small refining rivals. Spread over the next two years, the added mandate of more than 2bn RINs equals around 70pc of biofuel volumes expected to be exempted from 2023-2025 blend quotas, higher than other options EPA considered. The administration did punt an earlier plan to penalize imports, which would have been one of the most substantial and legally contested reforms in program history. While the final rule includes few more details, EPA expects to implement some version of that provision — which could mean foreign biofuels and feedstocks receive half the RINs as domestic product — starting in 2028. Farm groups have pushed regulators to do more to restrict inputs that compete with US crops, including recycled cooking oil that major renewable diesel plants bring in from countries like China. Refiners had lobbied the administration this month to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices already rising because of war in the Middle East. With affordability concerns top of mind for voters ahead of this year's midterm elections, the possibility of higher food and fuel prices presents political risk for Republicans. "It's baffling, with fuel prices already rising due to the conflict in Iran, that EPA is finalizing a rule that will make things far worse for consumers", said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group usually on board with Trump's energy policy. The mandates are certain to draw legal challenges, potentially from refiners or environmental groups. But as courts debate the details, the quotas are likely to support continued growth in not just US biofuel production but feedstock processing as well. Crop trading giants like Bunge and Cargill have invested heavily in new soybean and canola crush facilities, hoping to supply more vegetable oils to biofuel plants. Biomass-based diesel wins more than other fuels While the mandates will also support production margins for other biofuels, domestic demand for corn ethanol — the most widely used biofuel in the US — depends more on Congress. Lawmakers have struggled for months to reach a compromise on legislation that would permanently exempt a higher-ethanol gasoline blend from smog rules that currently limit summertime sales. Trump said Friday he was trusting legislative leaders to soon reach a deal. Gasoline stations can continue supplying fuel with up to 15pc ethanol this summer, more than the typical 10pc blend, because of temporary emergency regulations that the Trump administration started issuing this week. But so-called "E15" is still not sold at most US retail outlets. Renewable diesel production capacity in the US, already at record highs and growing, has boomed in part because the biofuel has fewer blend limits. By Cole Martin Final renewable volume obligations bn RINs 2025 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.21 1.36 1.43 Biomass-based diesel 5.36* 9.07 9.20 Advanced biofuel 7.33 11.10 11.32 Total renewable fuel 22.33 26.81 27.02 *2025 biomass-based diesel mandate set in gallons, converted here to RINs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update

27/03/26

US mandates record-high biofuel use: Update

Updates throughout with details on announcement New York, 27 March (Argus) — The US will require record-high biofuel use over the next two years, boosting soybean farmers and alternative diesel producers at the expense of oil refiners that warned of higher pump prices. Oil refiners will have to bring billions more gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel to market in 2026 and 2027, according to high-level targets previewed by President Donald Trump's administration. More details will come in final regulatory text that could be published late on Friday. The requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. They also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has pushed up the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives like biofuels. Requiring "the highest volumes of renewable fuels in history" will create rural jobs and "massively increase our nation's energy supply", Trump said at a White House event. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas had already boosted the price of RINs — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. Friday's final rule includes a record-high mandate of 26.81bn RINs from total renewable fuel blending this year and 27.02bn RINs next year. EPA sets total blend requirements and requires that a portion come from lower-carbon "advanced" biofuel types including biomass-based diesel. A gallon of corn ethanol generates one RIN, while more energy-dense fuels like renewable diesel earn more. Other updates show the Trump administration siding clearly with farmers over refiners. Larger oil companies, for instance, will have to blend more biofuels to offset the demand hit from recently generous program exemptions for some small refining rivals. Spread over the next two years, the added mandate equals around 70pc of biofuel volumes expected to be exempted from 2023-2025 blend quotas, higher than other options EPA considered. The administration did punt an earlier plan to penalize imports, which would have been one of the most substantial and legally contested reforms in program history. But EPA expects to implement that provision — which would mean foreign biofuels and feedstocks receive half the RINs as domestic product — starting in 2028. Farm groups have pushed regulators to do more to restrict inputs that compete with US crops, including recycled cooking oil that major renewable diesel plants bring in from countries like China. Refiners had lobbied the administration this month to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices already rising because of war in the Middle East. With affordability concerns top of mind for voters ahead of this year's midterm elections, the possibility of higher food and fuel prices presents political risk for Republicans. "It's baffling, with fuel prices already rising due to the conflict in Iran, that EPA is finalizing a rule that will make things far worse for consumers", said Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group usually on board with Trump's energy policy. The mandates are certain to draw legal challenges, potentially from refiners or environmental groups. But as courts debate the details, the quotas are likely to support continued growth in not just US biofuel production but feedstock processing as well. Crop trading giants like Bunge and Cargill have invested heavily in new soybean and canola crush facilities, hoping to supply more vegetable oils to biofuel plants. Renewable diesel wins more than other fuels While the mandates will also support production margins for other biofuels, domestic demand for corn ethanol — the most widely used biofuel in the US — depends more on Congress. Lawmakers have struggled for months to reach a compromise on legislation that would permanently exempt a higher-ethanol gasoline blend from smog rules that currently limit summertime sales. Trump said Friday he was trusting legislative leaders to soon reach a deal. Gasoline stations can continue supplying fuel with up to 15pc ethanol this summer, more than the typical 10pc blend, because of temporary emergency regulations that the Trump administration started issuing this week. But so-called "E15" is still not sold at most US retail outlets. Renewable diesel production capacity in the US, already at record highs and growing, has boomed in part because the biofuel has fewer blend limits. By Cole Martin Final renewable volume obligations bn RINs 2025 2026 2027 Cellulosic biofuel 1.21 1.36 1.43 Biomass-based diesel 5.36* 9.07 9.20 Advanced biofuel 7.33 11.10 11.32 Total renewable fuel 22.33 26.81 27.02 *2025 biomass-based diesel mandate set in gallons, converted here to RINs Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US biofuel mandates exit White House review

27/03/26

US biofuel mandates exit White House review

New York, 27 March (Argus) — The White House has completed its review of new biofuel blend mandates, signaling it could release the long-awaited rule important for crop demand and retail fuel prices. The rule emerged from the White House review process on Thursday, which is the last significant step before major regulations can be released, according to a government database updated on Friday. President Donald Trump's administration has already made clear that it expects to finalize new biofuel quotas, which were proposed at record-high levels for 2026 and 2027, sometime this month. The final blend requirements come as Trump and Republicans in Congress see more support for biofuels as one way to help farmers hurt by trade wars and rising input costs. The new quotas also come at the same time as war in the Middle East has spiked the cost of oil products, raising interest in alternatives. More details about the updates to the biofuel program, whether released in full Friday or not, could come at a White House event to celebrate agriculture. Trump said earlier in the week that his administration would announce on Friday "a variety of actions that we're taking to support American farmers". Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, the Environmental Protection Agency requires oil refiners and importers to annually blend different types of biofuels or buy credits from those that do. Traders expecting high quotas have already boosted the price of program credits — and key renewable diesel inputs like soybean oil — to multiyear highs this week. But oil refiners have lobbied the administration to shift course, warning that higher mandates would spill into retail fuel prices that are already spiking. While an earlier Trump proposal to slash program credits for imported biofuels and feedstocks is unlikely to be finalized, oil majors have bristled at a separate plan that would require them to blend more biofuels to offset recently generous program exemptions for smaller rivals. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Malaysia Aviation Group cautious on Corsia, SAF

27/03/26

Q&A: Malaysia Aviation Group cautious on Corsia, SAF

Singapore, 27 March (Argus) — Global aviation is fighting headwinds as the Middle East conflict disrupts jet fuel supply and causes steep price hikes. These challenges add to issues airlines already face in adopting clean jet fuels and offsetting carbon emissions. Singapore has just postponed a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) levy from next week to later this year, and its 1pc SAF usage from later this year to the start of 2027. Argus spoke with Philip See, chief sustainability officer at Malaysia Aviation Group on the sidelines of the Carbon Forward Asia conference in Singapore this week, on how the group is adapting and reviewing decarbonisation plans for the years ahead. Edited highlights follow: How might the ongoing US-Iran conflict impact SAF uplift, especially considering soaring jet fuel prices since the war began? While the situation's unique for everyone, it's generally quite difficult to hedge jet fuel cracks. Jet fuel prices having risen north of $200/bl has forced us to rethink our operations and business model quite a bit, which is why I suspect SAF's slightly on the back burner for the short-term. We did uplift SAF last year, and it's a constant challenge to find ways to procure it more efficiently through the jet refuellers. We'd allocated some budget to procure SAF this year but are re-evaluating that, considering the Middle East crisis. Regarding the agreement signed with logistics firm DHL earlier this month, why did Malaysia Aviation Group choose the book-and-claim mechanism as a decarbonisation lever? The agreement with DHL was from an opportunistic, business-to-business standpoint. Book-and-claim is still at a nascent stage in Asia from the demand and supply-side, and we need to find ways to adopt and accelerate it. Corporates are likely the first partners to move that forward in the short-term. The book-and-claim mechanism does help save on logistics costs involved in procuring physical SAF. There's also still some time before Malaysia's SAF production develops, as we only have one operational plant now. This year, we've intensified efforts on how we can meaningfully roll out book-and-claim initiatives in Malaysia, and even with our Asia-Pacific partners. Three constituents are important — corporates, [the physical] cargo [being transported] and government-linked companies. We have been engaging players here who seem receptive, and are now thinking of partners and platforms. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) made it clear recently that they support book-and-claim, so we want to move towards that too. If there are more book-and-claim developments in other markets like the EU, for example, that will also help build the supply-side for us in the Asia-Pacific, which will be beneficial in the mid to long-term. Might there be any progress towards Malaysia's potential SAF target so far? To my knowledge, the ministries are actively discussing and trying to land on something, while being anchored by the Malaysia Aviation Decarbonisation Blueprint. There's no timeline I'm aware of yet, and the target's form is still being discussed. Are there any updates on the memorandums of understanding signed with aircraft manufacturer Airbus, and biofuel feedstock supplier Fathopes Energy regarding studying carbon emissions and SAF feedstocks, respectively? We'll likely be able to share updates on the study with Airbus by year-end. Regarding the agreement with Fathopes, that's still exploratory. Besides these publicly announced ones, we're in conversations with others too — as we can't be overly reliant on any one partner. The whole point of SAF is diversification and having a holistic view of decarbonisation levers. On Corsia (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) offsetting, how is the progress in meeting obligations for the Phase 1 period (2024-26)? We have forecasted and budgeted for the carbon credits needed. We have not retired any credits, and our procurement is in small batches through the International Air Transport Association. We have a plan to ramp up [procurement] in phases. We want to diversify our sources as the portfolio of Corsia carbon projects grow. We are also looking at all instruments for procurement options. Does Malaysia Airlines have additional criteria for the types of Corsia credits it intends to procure? No, we already [see] challenges in projects meeting the Corsia requirements and obtaining Letters of Authorisation (LOAs) from host governments. So let us get that going first. I don't think we will impose too many additional requirements. In the voluntary carbon space there are more choices. In our previous passenger offsetting programme, we could specify preferences for sourcing from Asia-Pacific carbon projects. With Corsia, it is different. Have you discussed with the Malaysian government on advancing LOAs and Corresponding Adjustments (to enable domestic Corsia projects and carbon credits)? The Malaysian government is aware of our requirements. The challenge lies in different ministries handling different priorities. We speak with the transport ministry on Corsia and they are familiar with the programme. But LOAs involve other ministries, such as that for natural resources and environment. They have many competing priorities to reconcile. Everybody is at the table but there are still different positions. I think we need more harmonisation within the government. It seems that lack of LOAs seems to be a key Corsia bottleneck more broadly, and not just in Malaysia. Yes. Greater transparency around how authorisations are issued is important. Last year, we were quite keen on engaging with the Koko project, and we were taken aback by its collapse [because of delays in obtaining an LOA]. We had conversations with counterparties suggesting we secure carbon credits from this project. Now we are more hesitant, more cautious [in procuring Corsia credits]. How is Malaysia Airlines positioning itself to be able to secure SAF and Corsia credits in this challenging environment then? It is about knowing your levers for sustainability and knowing which to pull at the right time. We have been looking closely at the trade-offs between SAF and carbon offsetting, and formulating different scenarios and what to do given each. This has been an 18-month piece of work. I think compared to many of our peers, we have a more structured programme on decarbonisation that takes into account, for instance, our aircraft fleet and investment options in the carbon space for the next 10 years. In the short-term – meaning two years from now — we're looking at a clear, structured procurement plan for high-quality offsets, while accounting for a changing operational environment as we've more fuel-efficient aircraft, plus knowing our [risk] exposure. In the mid-term (into the 2030s), we'll then consider more physical SAF procurement. Is there a risk that Corsia's emissions reduction target, set at 85pc of emissions from 2019 levels, could be weakened given current challenges? That is a worry hanging over the industry — on how robust the Corsia regime is and whether it stands the test of time. I can say Asia-Pacific airlines are quite committed to Corsia. So is the Oneworld Alliance. By Sarah Giam, Liang Lei and Shribalaji Shenbagaraj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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