Worldstainless is a stainless steel industry body and subsidiary of the World Steel Association (worldsteel), which represents producers comprising 85pc of global steel production and national and regional steel industry associations worldwide. Argus spoke to Worldstainless Secretary-General Tim Collins on the sidelines of the International Chromium Development Association conference about stainless steel growth and the importance of secure raw materials supply, particularly for chrome metal.
What are you expecting for steel supply and demand in 2025?
From a demand perspective, we know that (global) demand will remain a bit on the weak side, but we are expecting to see a small level of growth after the first quarter of 2026. We expect demand to grow by 2pc to 2.5pc, but it will be polarised. There will be certain sectors where movement is slower, such as nuclear energy and other renewable energies. But in other areas, people are getting frustrated with non-metallic materials, particularly composites and plastic base, so there is an opportunity for stainless growth as people switch material-buying decisions. We are looking further down the supply chain.
Why is diversified chromium production important?
Chromium is important to us because it's what makes stainless steel stainless. We are a growing industry, with 5pc growth year on year in terms of ferro-chrome consumption. That pattern has been in place since 1980. We need a geographically balanced production platform for ferro-chrome. If regions don't have domestic or near domestic ferro-chrome production, that is not good for the overall stainless industry. What we don't want is an ultimate monopoly. The stainless industry wants a more diversified production landscape, otherwise we end up carrying huge stocks, which nobody wants.
Why is improved scrap recycling important?
If you look at average global production levels for stainless steels, the recycled content stands at 48pc on average, although that is polarised by region. Approximately half of the chrome we need comes from recycled content. But we lose about 600,000t of chromium contained in scrap to the low-alloy steel industry. If we could capture that and recycle that into new stainless steels, that would drop the current average emissions (for stainless steel output) by 10pc. That's an improvement that is hard to do by means of technological production.
What other raw materials are a priority?
When you look at the big three inputs for stainless steels, you're looking at chromium, nickel and molybdenum. From an emissions perspective, nickel is the worst contributor to the overall stainless steel cradle to gate emissions. We need the nickel industry to move faster. Molybdenum is one of the other important elements for us, and molybdenum use will grow, but we have to do more to promote the molybdenum-containing steels. That is where you get the benefits in structural applications. As we look to enter other application sectors, molybdenum becomes increasingly important.
What stainless steel end-markets could grow in the near term?
The area that is interesting for us is infrastructure. We now have a number of showcase projects that have used stainless in a selective way in large building projects, which eliminated future maintenance needs. You only have to replace 10-12pc of traditional structural steels with stainless once you understand where corrosion is likely to occur. If you replace structural steels for stainless, you've got a product that will stand the test of time and require much less maintenance interventions, and another benefit is that you drop the emissions in the operational phase. The last benefit of stainless structural steels is that you need less concrete in structures.
How has recent US policy impacted stainless steel?
I have seen changes in US policies for materials over the course of my career, and this has been different in that Donald Trump has been much more direct. Previous administrations have not been so fast to act, and it has been a bit more subtle. But I think we get to a point where everything is okay. When you look at the big producers of stainless steel in the US — Acerinox, Aperam and Outokumpu — they're responsible for most of the market demand and are managing well. What is interesting about the three big players is that their facilities are fairly modern, whereas decades ago in the US their facilities were older and not so competitive or efficient. Having modern, more efficient plants helps without a doubt. There is still room for niche players to ship material in because not all products can be produced in the US domestically.
The one concern I have for the US is that if you look at consumption of stainless per capita, the US lags the leading countries in the world by a long way. Countries such as China have consumption of 20-25kg per capita, whereas for the US, consumption is in the single-digit figures. The US has created what I call the throwaway society, so the alignment to resilient materials is not as strong.
