Growing EV sales are set to displace 10mn b/d of oil by 2035 under the International Energy Association's (IEA) stated policies scenario (STEPS) in its latest World Energy Outlook report — a hypothetical scenario based on announced but not yet implemented policies.
The IEA expects the global sales share of electric vehicles to rise from 25pc in 2025 to over 50pc in 2035, driven by growing sales in emerging markets such as Asia Pacific — Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam — and Brazil and steady demand in China and Europe.
The STEPS scenario accounts for EV sales of all types, including cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks.
This will weigh on demand for fossil fuels, which will peak in 2030. Around 10mn b/d of oil will be displaced globally by 2035. Oil demand will further decrease as hybrid technologies and biofuels should become more prevalent in 2035, saving an additional 4.9mn b/d, the agency said.
Global EV demand set to rise six-fold by 2035
The IEA expects that the general auto market will grow to 1.6bn units in 2026 from 1.4bn units in 2025, with electric vehicles accounting for over 840mn — around 52.5pc — within the next 10 years.
EVs account for about one in four cars sold nowadays, with total sales expected to reach 20mn units by year's end, according to the IEA.
China alone is on track to sell 14mn EVs in 2025, and Chinese automakers are boosting previously declining EV sales in Europe by introducing 10 new affordable models priced under €25,000 ($29,000), the IEA said. The same is happening in emerging markets such as Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay and Colombia, where competitively priced Chinese EVs are reshaping the auto market.
Chinese EVs accounted for 85pc of all electric vehicles sold in Brazil in 2024 — and the country doubled its EV sales from a year prior.
Sales of electric two and three-wheelers, such as motorcycles and rickshaws, are driving EV sales in Asian markets such as India and southeast Asia. In Vietnam, where these vehicles are particularly popular, electric models now account for over 40pc of total auto sales.
These trends are offsetting weakening EV demand from the US, led by Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which cuts several tax and monetary benefits surrounding EV sales and the production of its feedstocks. Sales of electric vehicles fell by 4pc in the first half of 2025, according to the IEA.
The OBBBA prompted the agency to revise its US EV sales forecast, cutting its 2035 demand projections for the region by 60pc compared to its 2024 report.
At the time, the IEA forecast that US consumers would purchase 11mn EV units by 2035, meaning it now sees only 4.4mn vehicles sold in the same period.
Comparatively, this year's STEPS scenario sees around 20pc more EVs on the road in emerging markets and developing economies outside China in 2035 compared with the 2024 STEPS, reflecting the recent strong sales growth.
