Turkey could export more gas to Serbia this winter

Spanish Market: Natural gas
21/11/25

Turkish state-run Botas could export gas to Serbia in the first quarter of 2026 to ease contract and supply pressure related to Russian gas, provided that Turkey has spare supply.

Serbia's long-term agreement with Russia's Gazprom for 2.2bn m³/yr, which was initially set to expire on 31 May this year, was extended until 31 December. The parties have been negotiating over a new contract for most of this year, but have not agreed on pricing and a delivery schedule yet. Serbia expects the deal to be extended for a fourth time until the end of March to cover the heating period, Srbijagas chief executive Dusan Bajatovic said on 17 November. But if Russian supply stops because of contract issues, Serbia has alternative supply options, including Turkey, Bajatovic added.

Gazprom deliveries through the onshore continuation of the 43mn m³/d Turkish Stream pipeline remain the main supply source for Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and North Macedonia. These deliveries enter the Bulgarian grid at the Strandzha 2/Malkoclar point on the Turkish border and reach Serbia through the 38mn m³/d Kireevo/Zaychar point.

Judging by net flows to Serbia from Bulgaria and further exports to Hungary, roughly 91 GWh/d, or 8mn m³/d, was delivered to Serbia on 1 January-20 November. That said, this includes volumes transported on further to Bosnia-Herzegovina at the Zvornik point.

Turkey as an alternative supplier

Utilisation of large Turkish regasification capacity could result in spare supply in Turkey and potential exports to Serbia, despite quickly growing domestic consumption.

Turkey already exports gas to Serbia, but only via LNG trucks and in limited volumes. Firms have exported to Serbia only in September in 2025 — at 50,000m³ — while 140,000m³ was delivered by truck over the whole of last year.

But there is enough spare capacity at the Turkish-Bulgarian border and the Kalotina/Dimitrovgrad and Kireevo/Zaychar points between Bulgaria and Serbia. Bulgartransgaz has received 1.6bn m³ of gas this year at Strandzha 1/Malkoclar on the Turkish border, which has entry capacity of about 4bn m³/yr, compared with 1.8bn m³ in all of 2024.

If Botas and Srbijagas reach a gas agreement for January 2026 right after the currently expected expiry of Russian supply, Botas will have tariff advantage since it acts as both supplier and gas grid operator in Turkey. But Botas' trading arm would have to pay on paper at least €3.19/MWh to deliver gas to the Bulgarian side, according to its published tariffs for this gas year. And for monthly deliveries in January 2026 to the Kalotina/Dimitrovgrad point, Bulgarian system operator Bulgartransgaz quotes a combined transport, volume and balancing fee of €0.86/MWh, according to the operator's tariff calculator. If the gas goes to the Kireevo/Zaychar point, the price rises to €1.16/MWh, not including VAT. In Serbia, the entry fee to the grid for January is €1.07/MWh, while using the Kireevo/Zaychar route adds an average commodity fee of €0.15–0.20/MWh, according to traders.

In any event, a potential supply deal would only be possible if Turkey has excess gas to export. Turkey has large sendout capacity, but rising consumption may make Turkey hesitant to enter into an export deal for a winter of uncertain severity. That said, if Turkey can utilise its 161mn m³/d of LNG regasification capacity during periods of sufficient pipeline supply, it could provide Serbia with the short-term supply flexibility it needs.

Azerbaijan unlikely to increase exports to Serbia

It is unlikely that Azerbaijan would increase deliveries to Serbia in the short term given the limited growth in domestic production and fully utilised export capacity to Europe.

Bajatovic said Azerbaijan cannot send additional gas this winter.

Azerbaijan produced a total of 38.2bn m³ of gas at its four fields in January-September 2025, up by 3pc from 37.1bn m³ in the same period last year, based on the latest Azeri ministry data.

This increase is in line with the scheduled capacity rise of the 10bn m³/yr Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) from January 2026 by 1.16bn m³/yr. But this additional capacity has already been allocated to Italian customers, leaving no excess supply for Serbia.

Srbijagas and its Azeri counterpart Socar have a delivery contract for 400mn m³ during 2024–26, probably through the 1.8bn m³/yr Bulgaria-Serbia Interconnector, which passes through Kalotina/Dimitrovgrad. In addition, the sides signed a short-term agreement for an extra 1mn m³/d for delivery in the 2024–25 winter. Serbia received 272mn m³ of gas through the Kalotina/Dimitrovgrad point on 1 January-19 November this year, compared with 108mn m³ in all of 2024, according to Bulgartransgaz data.

By Ugur Yildirim

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