The IEA has increased its forecast for global refinery runs for 2026, driven by a rise in OECD runs in response to strong refining economics, continuing loss of Russian supply of products and a growing global crude oil surplus.
In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the agency increased its forecast for global crude runs in 2026 by 250,000 b/d to 84.4mn b/d.
The IEA predicts crude runs in the OECD of 36.2mn b/d next year, up from 35.6mn b/d in its previous OMR. That increase means the organisation forecasts that OECD runs will drop by only 110,000 b/d on the year in 2026, despite an overall 860,000 b/d drop in OECD refining capacity in 2025-26.
Strong refining margins particularly boosted European throughput in October, and the IEA expects that to continue into next year. Refinery profitability has reached the highest in recent weeks since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, caused by strong rises in crude supply and unexpected tightness in product markets, especially in middle distillates and gasoline. European throughput will reach 95pc of capacity next year, the IEA said.
The IEA nudged up forecast runs in OECD Americas by 180,000 b/d to 19.2mn b/d. Higher refining margins should boost US throughput in the first half of next year, with further support found from increasing reliability in Mexican refineries.
The IEA forecasts non-OECD runs at 48.2mn b/d, down from 48.5mn b/d in its previous report. Delays to the start-up of refineries in India, Iran and Angola — as well as ongoing works at KPC's al Zour refinery in Kuwait — weighed on forecast throughput. The body trimmed its forecast for Chinese runs in 2026, but said higher floating inventories of cheaper Russian and Iranian crude in Asia could cause Chinese runs and exports to rise next year.
Predicted Eurasian runs held steady at 6.1mn b/d despite throughput falling to a three-year low in October. Preliminary reports suggest Russian runs recovered in November, the IEA said. Diesel supplies by pipeline for export from Russian ports could rise by 20pc on the month to 2.1mn t in December, traders said.
Sanctions could provide further support to margins in 2026, the IEA said. That includes US sanctions on Russian and Iranian exports, as well as EU sanctions on products derived from Russian crude.
