Potash trade between the US and Belarus is set to be reinstated after an absence of almost four years, following the lifting of US sanctions on Belarusian potash on 13 December with immediate effect — a move that could soften the outlook for global MOP prices as supply options increase.
The relationship between the US and Belarus had started to ease earlier this year when Belarus agreed to release 52 political detainees from its prisons in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions on Belarusian flagship airline Belavia in September. This limited rapprochement generated talk among market participants of the possibility of a further lifting of US sanctions on Belarus, which could affect Belarusian potash. US sanctions on Belarusian potash, which is produced by state-owned Belaruskali and marketed by BPC, have been in place since 2021. But the announcement over the weekend has largely caught the market by surprise.
The policy change could lead to a significant shift in potash trade dynamics, with implications that extend well beyond the borders of both countries. For the US, it would further diversify its potash supply chain, reducing its heavy reliance on Canadian imports and improve its negotiating position in ongoing tariff disputes with the country. For Belarus, regaining access to the US market opens up an opportunity to diversify export destinations and stabilise revenues for one its most vital commodities.
Such changes could make the US a more competitive market in terms of pricing. At a global level, buyers that had previously stopped purchasing Belarusian potash will have more supply options and could use this as leverage to push down prices with their current suppliers.
On the contrary, a potential reduction of Belarusian MOP to other markets in favour of the US would likely see other markets become less competitive.
But it is unlikely that the market will see such developments in the near term. It will take some time for US-Belarus trade to resume as administrative and financial processes still need to be put in place, and US potash buyers will need to be incentivised to buy Belarusian MOP over Canadian tons as some still refuse to purchase Russian product.
What's in it for the US?
The removal of Belarusian potash sanctions enables the US to possibly further diversify its sources for potash imports, signalling that this is more of a White House priority than market participants had originally anticipated.
The US has limited domestic MOP production and is heavily reliant on imports, particularly from Canada. The country imported 13.5mn t of MOP for the 2024/25 fertilizer year, with roughly 85pc of it sourced from Canada and 9pc coming from Russia, according to US Census Bureau data. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source.
Belarusian MOP has not touched US soil since February 2022, but in 2017-21 an average of 635,000 t/yr of Belarusian MOP was brought into the country.
This policy change also comes just days after US president Donald Trump claimed he could impose severe tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports, and the return of trade with Belarus may be used as leverage for the US in the current tariff war between the two countries. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 11mn-12mn t/yr of Canadian potash it needs with Belarusian product.
It is also in line with Trump's strategy to secure the country's critical minerals needs. Trump included potash in the administration's list of American critical minerals this year and ordered the US government to fast-track permit reviews for critical minerals projects. The importance of potash was also highlighted when the White House spared a number of potassium-based fertilizer products — MOP, SOP, NOP, NPK and magnesium sulphate — from a raft of tariffs imposed earlier this year.
In the US domestic market, traders appear largely unfazed by the new development. There have been strong MOP imports this year and there are currently healthy inventories of MOP across the Corn Belt. Additional volumes from Belarus could oversupply the market, pressuring prices downwards at a time when potash is already the most affordable nutrient domestically. But it is likely to take some time for Belarus to regain market share as it is possible that some companies may self-sanction against Belarusian potash — similar to companies self-sanctioning against Russian potash — while suppliers currently find prices in the US unattractive at $305-310/st fob Nola and alternative markets such as Brazil are providing a better netback, which could deter Belarus from promptly returning to the US market. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium.
Moreover, the administrative processes to facilitate the return of Belarusian trade in the US will also likely take some time to be implemented.
What's in it for Belarus?
Belarusian potash is one of the most important commodities for the Belarusian economy and provides the country with a major source of foreign revenue.
Following sanctions, Belarusian MOP practically disappeared from the global potash market in 2022. Yet Belarus regained its footing in the international market far quicker than expected and has managed to continue selling significant volumes of potash to the global market with the help of creative paperwork and lax enforcement of the sanctions.
Russia played a pivotal role in this recovery. After Belarus lost access to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda — previously the main export hub for Belarusian potash exports — from 1 February 2022, the marketer was forced to declare force majeure and find alternative routes to export its product. Today, most Belarusian potash exports flow through Russian ports, a shift that has increased costs and extended lead times.
Argus estimates that Klaipeda typically handled 9mn-11mn t/yr of Belarusian MOP. This year, Belarus is on track to export more than 12mn t, surpassing pre-sanction export levels.
Without access to the US and EU markets, Belarus has leaned heavily on markets such as Brazil, China and southeast Asia, often pricing aggressively to maintain market share. The reopening of US trade offers a chance to reduce dependence on these regions.
The lifting of the sanctions will also make it significantly easier for companies to trade Belarusian potash around the world, except in the EU and the UK. where sanctions remain on Belarus. Importers that had previously stopped taking Belarusian MOP may now be open to trading with Belarus again. By having an additional supply option, buyers may find they have a stronger negotiating position with existing suppliers, which could put downward pressure on prices.
Conversely, markets where Belarus has a strong presence could see a reduction of Belarusian volumes if product shifts toward the US, potentially making those regions less competitive.
The policy change also comes at a time when Belarusian MOP capacity is increasing capacity, with the 2mn t/yr Nezhinsky MOP project scheduled for commissioning in the second quarter of 2026, and underscores Belarus' commitment to continue growing its footprint in the global potash market.
